Comment on An and Schorfheide's Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models

An and Schorfheide's article provides an excellent review of Bayesian estimation of DSGE models. Rather than recapitulating the points already made in this article, my comment focuses on three aspects. It proposes a convergence measure to take account of serial correlation of MCMC draws, explains why the DSGE-VAR framework for policy analysis can be improved by avoiding the ad hoc identification assumption, and discusses an alternative structural approach to model misspecification.     

Gamesmanship for internal evaluators: Knowing when to “hold 'em” and when to “fold 'em”

This article discusses the ethical conflicts between an internal evaluator's altruistic social reform motivation and an organization's practical survival motivation. The internal evaluator might encounter (a) pressure to downplay negative and emphasize positive findings; (b) reinforcement for nonthreatening, routine evaluation activities; (c) greater interest in making the evaluation unit visible than in using evaluation results; or (d) reduced access to privileged information.     

在教学中提高A、B级英语考试水平

近几年来,高职高专的英语应用能力考试得到了大大的推广,当下进行的高职教育评估对该项考试的过级率更是提出了更高的要求。对高职高专的英语应用能力A、B级考试做的相关教学探索,实践证明相关的作法实施得到了良好的效果。     

论徐锴对词义引申的贡献

徐锴对词义引申所做的贡献主要表现在:理性认识方面,承继许慎“六书”说,依据本义和借义的关系对假借造字进行分类,启发清代小学家进一步界定假借和引申概念,理顺二者关系;训诂实践方面,在《说文解字系传》“通释”篇中,有意识地申明大量字词的引申义,并对引申的基本途径有所认识,从而启迪后世学者深入探索,最终使引申成为词义运动的重要理论。     

THE EURO AND THE GEOGRAPHY OF INTERNATIONAL DEBT FLOWS

Greater financial integration between core and peripheral European Monetary Union (EMU) members not only had an effect on both sets of countries but also spilled over beyond the euro area. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits, which inflated their economies by allowing credit booms. Core EMU countries took on extra foreign leverage to expose themselves to the peripherals. We present a stylized model that illustrates possible mechanisms for these developments. We then analyze the geography of international debt flows using multiple data sources and provide evidence that after the euro's introduction, core EMU countries increased their borrowing from outside of the EMU and their lending to the EMU periphery. Moreover, we present evidence that large core EMU banks' lending to periphery borrowers was linked to their borrowing from outside of the euro area.     

REPATRIATION OF DEBT IN THE EURO CRISIS

With the beginning of the Euro Crisis, the long‐standing trend of European financial integration reversed. Investors unwound cross‐border positions of debt obligations and increased holdings of locally issued debt. In other words, debt obligations were repatriated. We use data on bank portfolios to document three new empirical regularities of the financial disintegration: (i) repatriation affected mainly debt of crisis countries; (ii) repatriation affected mainly public debt; (iii) the public debt of crisis countries that was not repatriated was reallocated to large and politically influential countries within the Euro area. We read these results in light of standard theories of cross‐border portfolio allocation and argue that the sum of these patterns constitutes evidence for the secondary market theory of public debt.     

DISTRIBUTIONAL INCENTIVES IN AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF DOMESTIC SOVEREIGN DEFAULT

Europe's debt crisis resembles historical episodes of outright default on domestic public debt about which little research exists. This paper proposes a theory of domestic sovereign default based on distributional incentives affecting the welfare of risk‐averse debt and nondebtholders. A utilitarian government cannot sustain debt if default is costless. If default is costly, debt with default risk is sustainable, and debt falls as the concentration of debt ownership rises. A government favoring bond holders can also sustain debt, with debt rising as ownership becomes more concentrated. These results are robust to adding foreign investors, redistributive taxes, or a second asset.     

自由的陷阱：《A & P》中的资本主义文化矛盾

约翰·厄普代克的短篇小说《A & P》以艺术的手法,通过对普通民众、Sammy 和泳装少女在 A & P 商场中“自由”行为的描述,揭示了资本主义文化矛盾的本质,以及资本主义社会中,人们自由的丧失及对自由的追求,揭露了20世纪60年代美国社会所鼓吹的自由的本质,即自由的陷阱。     

并购重组公告的短期财富效应研究——基于投资者有限注意的视角

基于投资者有限注意这一独特视角,实证研究了公司并购重组公告诱发的短期财富效应.研究结果表明:公告日前后,主并公司股票因不同投资者有限注意程度的不同而存在短期财富效应,且越临近公告日,短期财富效应越显著;同时,投资者自身注意力分散程度的周历分布特征会引起主并公司短期财富效应的周历变动,上市公司管理层也会据此对并购重组公告进行择机发布,导致财富效应周历变动更为显著;然而,投资者对上市公司特征关注的有限性,加剧了市场对并购重组的过度反应,提升了短期财富效应.因此,监管机构应当建立和完善重大信息披露机制,加强对投资者的教育和价值投资引导,而上市公司应当建立有效的内控制度,提高信息的透明度、真实性与及时性.     

新红学的开端,新典范的创始:王国维的红学研究述论--现代学人的红学研究综论之一

王国维在《红楼梦评论》中所提出的问题不仅蕴含着新锐的思想光芒,同时具有鲜明的学术启示意义,如“解脱”说、“悲剧”说、“伦理学上之价值与美学上之价值合一”说等。20世纪初期提出的这些崭新命题,具有立意新、方法新、见解新的特征,为中国小说研究的现代学术范式建立做出了可贵的学术贡献。同时,《红楼梦评论》引入叔本华哲学所建立的《红楼梦》研究的新范式,是王国维在红学批评方面建立的桥头堡,仍有待继续前行,精进日新。