The determinants of international creditworthiness and their policy implications

The present paper utilizes an empirical measure of creditworthiness based on bankers' perceptions to estimate the effect of various variables hypothesized to influence assessments of countries' debt-servicing capacity. The data pertain to a cross section of countries within the period 1979–1983. Such estimates necessarily employ a ceteris paribus assumption, which prevents a realistic assessment of the effects generated by policy changes. The second part of the paper develops, therefore, a dynamic simulation model of a hypothetical average economy. The simulations allow analysis of changes in macroeconomic variables and creditworthiness over time within a system that maintains accounting identities and behavioral constraints. Several changes in policy variables are considered that highlight the importance of export expansion. The latter is, of course, an often suggested policy objective, but the present paper demonstrates its effectiveness in terms of a somewhat nonstandard criterion.     

以"三个代表"思想认识和推动小康社会的全面建设

江泽民在党的十六大报告上庄严指出 ,当人类社会跨入 2 1世纪的时候 ,我国进入了全面建设小康社会的历史阶段。以“三个代表”思想界定“小康”概念 ,认识“小康社会”的性质 ,定位“小康社会”在人类社会发展中的地位 ,对于推动小康社会的全面建设 ,加快推进我国社会主义现代化建设的进程 ,实现中华民族的伟大复兴 ,都有重要的意义。     

社区“居民需求网”架构研究

构建社会主义和谐社会必然要求建设和谐社区,建设和谐社区的关键环节是什么?本文认为,建设和谐社区应以满足居民需求为中心,紧紧围绕"居民需求"开展社区建设与社区服务工作,建设完善的"居民需求网"。社区"居民需求网"应包括"需求了解网"、"需求满足网"、"需求评估网",三者共同架构起一个需求网络体系。和谐社区的建设工作,应以社区"居民需求网"建构为重心。     

二十世纪红学历程

19世纪末到20世纪初这一时期,为我国学术的转型期.这里不仅包括着学术主题的变化,也包括学术研究由综合学科向各个单科专门化方面的发展.真正意义的红学应该说是从世纪之交的三位被人称为国学大师的人的参与而正式确立起来的.20世纪红学,是由几次大的高潮连接起来的一是世纪初新红学之建立,二是50年代之批判红学,三是70年代红学热,四是八九十年代之多元化红学新潮.以小说为研究主题也只是一个过渡期,到20世纪二三十年代以后,史学、文学、哲学、经济、社会学以及化学、地质学、生物学等,便逐渐各自成为专门学科,各类专家也便相继出现了.将50年代红学称之为"批判红学",将70年代的红学称之为"政治红学",还算是比较切题的.到了80年代后期经济大潮袭来之后,不论红学研究队伍还是研究者的知识积累方面都受到了巨大的冲击.不能固定地认为只有考证本子和作者两个问题才是红学,红学是一个综合性的科学,它不仅包括有史学、哲学、社会学、文艺学、文化学,辽包括文献学、版本学、谱牒学等.     

论冷战期间美国的大战略体系

大战略是一战后西方军事理论界提出的新概念,二战后广为流行,并成为国家决策的重要内容。冷战期间,美国政府为了对抗、削弱并击溃苏联东欧集团,铲除所谓共产主义威胁,赢得冷战的胜利,制订并实施了以遏制战略为核心的大战略,形成了一个金字塔般的战略体系。在这个战略体系中,位于顶端的是遏制战略;其下是政治战略、经济战略、军事战略、文化战略等各领域的分类战略;这些分类战略的子战略或曰具体战略,诸如威慑战略、贸易管制战略、和平演变战略、大规模报复战略、灵活反应战略、现实威慑战略等,则为第三层次的战略。遏制战略以各分类战略及其子战略为依托,统领着众多分类战略和子战略;各分类战略和子战略则依据遏制大战略制订并以遏制大战略的目标为最终目标。该大战略体系在促使苏东裂变、结束冷战中发挥了重要作用。     

Electoral Politics, Ideology and American Social Policy

This article addresses the politics of social policy in the context of the 2004 American presidential election. It examines the divisions in American society and their distinctive agendas. It also explores the record of the Bush administration on key social policy issues and shows how it relates to the broader conservative tradition as well as to the Clinton administration's reform of welfare. Finally, it examines the election results. The article argues that the Bush administration has a distinctive agenda on social policy issues and that its approach is likely to reduce further the role of the social government in the provision of social policy, by emphasizing market forces and philanthropy as well as cutting taxes. It also notes, however, that the Bush administration has taken a strong stance on traditional moral values and that its opposition to abortion and homosexuality is an important part of its political strategy.     

Commodity prices and the world distribution of income

Some advocates of a new international economic order recommend raising prices of commodities exported by developing countries as a means of reducing the inequality of world income distribution. A simulation model using commodity trade data and income distribution data for 68 industrial and developing countries examines this policy alternative. Initial data compilation reveals that internal inequality is as important as international: The world income share of the poorest 40% of people would be twice as high in the absence of intracountry inequality. Calculations using actual price experience in the “great inflation” of 1972–1975 show that despite the large relative price changes for some commodities (especially oil), these changes left the world size distribution of income virtually unchanged. Separate policy simulations show that even a quadrupling of the price of ali “equalizing” commodities (those mainly exported by LDCs) would leave the size distribution of world income practically unaltered (even under optimistic assumptions about intracountry distributional incidence), although some individual LDCs would gain. Increasing commodity prices therefore appears to be an ineffective means of increasing international equity, quite apart from questions about the feasibility of cartels or commodity agreements.     

对《印度之行》中回声的多角度探寻

本文以后殖民主义理论作为支撑,从不同的角度解读了《印度之行》中的回声之谜。由于山洞和回声的含义都过于含蓄,且福斯特竭力运用似乎真实的自然现象去容纳过多的含义,因此山洞和回声不仅使英国游览者而且也使读者感到混乱和神秘。本文旨在从多角度解读回声,以进一步启发读者思考。     

互文性视野下的《苍蝇》兼及穆旦文学史形象

学术界对穆旦《苍蝇》的解读多出于经典化的欲求而探究其中的"深意",从而与穆旦本人的指认形成微妙的龃龉。文章从互文性角度进行文本分析,接下诗人"戏作"的话头,以期在解读的游戏与文本的声音之间取得某种平衡,并对穆旦一贯严肃的文学史形象提出商榷。