UK macroeconomic volatility: Historical evidence over seven centuries

Breaking ground from all previous studies, we estimate a time-varying Vector Autoregression model that examines the time-period 1270–2016 — the entire economic history of the U.K. Focusing on permanent and transitory shocks in the economy, we study the fluctuation in conditional volatilities and time-varying long-run responses of output growth and inflation. Unlike all previous studies that use time invariant linear models, our approach reveals that the pre 1600 period is a turbulent economic period of high volatility that is only repeated in the 20th century. The repeating patterns in the conditional volatilities follow from aggregate supply shocks, while most of the inflation responses follow from aggregate demand shocks. Thus, we uncover that despite the technological growth and the various changes in the structure of the U.K. economy in the last century, the recurring patterns call for an examination of the true impact of the various policies on the economy.     

快速制作FOXPROW下应用软件的自动安装程序

介绍了数据库应用软件设计完成后一个Windows风格的自动安装程序的快速制作方法,并通过一个实例进行了具体描述。     

多媒体邮件系统中语音邮件的开发

介绍了一个自行研制的基于Ｎｏｖｅｌｌ网络的多媒体邮件系统的功能和构成，详细阐述了语音邮件的设计与实现方法。     

Towards more resilient economies: The role of well-functioning economic structures

Resilience is essential to better withstand adverse shocks and reduce the economic costs associated with them. We link resilience to the quality of countries’ economic structures. The paper finds robust evidence that sound labour and product markets and conditions for doing business increase the resilience towards adverse shocks and reduce the incidence of crises more generally. In the presence of a common shock, a country with weak economic structures can on average suffer up to twice the output loss in a given year compared to a more adaptable economy. From a policy perspective, this implies the need to push forward structural policies in countries with lower quality economic structures to increase resilience in case of future shocks. We also suggest how a monitoring process towards more resilient economic structures could look like.     

Covid-19 and the euthanasia of interest rates: A critical assessment of central bank policy in our times

We compare the New Keynesian and Austrian explanations for low interest rates in the light of the Corona crisis. From a New Keynesian perspective low interest rates are the result of structural changes in the society and the economy as well as the cyclical downswing triggered by the Corona pandemic. In contrast, from the perspective of Austrian economic theory, interest rates have been pushed down on trend by central banks for a long time to stimulate growth, with the global financial crisis of 2007/08 and the Corona crisis of 2020 acting as powerful accelerators of the euthanasia of interest. New Keynesian theory would suggest that interest rates can be adjusted upward again when conditions change, without creating economic and financial disturbances. Against this, Austrian theory finds that central banks have backed themselves into a corner by creating persistent low-interest expectations.     

Interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the financial crisis: A multivariate regime-switching approach

In this paper we use a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model to analyse the interest rate pass-through between interbank and retail bank rates in the Euro area. Empirical results, based on monthly data for the period 2003–2011, show that during periods of financial distress bank lending rates to both households and non-financial corporations show a reduction of their degree of pass-through from the money market rate. Significant sectoral heterogeneities characterise the transmission mechanism of monetary policy impulses, with rates on loans to non-financial firms being more affected by changes in the interbank rate than loans to households, both in times of high volatility and in normal market conditions.     

基于WINCE5．0文件播放器系统内核定制设计

本文主要介绍了一种常见文档播放器的Windows CE5．0操作系统内核的定制方法。Windows CE以其高度集成化、可根据需求裁剪的特点，已经广泛应用于嵌入式设备中，而对其内核进行正确的定制是进行系统开发的重要步骤。本文分析了Windows CE系统的开发流程，并对其内核的定制进行了详细的介绍。     

Large‐sample tests of extreme‐value dependence for multivariate copulas

Starting from the characterization of extreme‐value copulas based on max‐stability, large‐sample tests of extreme‐value dependence for multivariate copulas are studied. The two key ingredients of the proposed tests are the empirical copula of the data and a multiplier technique for obtaining approximate p‐values for the derived statistics. The asymptotic validity of the multiplier approach is established, and the finite‐sample performance of a large number of candidate test statistics is studied through extensive Monte Carlo experiments for data sets of dimension two to five. In the bivariate case, the rejection rates of the best versions of the tests are compared with those of the test of Ghoudi et al. (1998) recently revisited by Ben Ghorbal et al. (2009). The proposed procedures are illustrated on bivariate financial data and trivariate geological data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 703–720; 2011. © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

The real uncovered interest parity: The case of Canada and the USA

The aim of this paper is to re-assess the real uncovered interest parity (RUIP) in the light of including domestic demand shocks as possible determinants of the real exchange rate. We use annual data for two close trading partners, namely Canada and the USA. Using cointegration analysis we find evidence in favour of RUIP. In addition, empirical support is provided to show that discretionary fiscal policy actions have a spillover effect to the real exchange rate via real interest rates.     

Windows2003下IIS安全配置与管理

Windows2003下IIS安全配置与管理,是实现WIN2003操作系统和IIS服务器的安全,也是创建Internet网站所必须的设置。