The Implications of Using Messy Data to Estimate Production-Frontier-Based Technical Efficiency Measures

An empirical study of efficiency at the plant level, requiring production and financial data, was done using frontier function specifications. It is not evident from the implementation of the production-frontier models that different methodologies will consistently flag the same observations as being efficient or inefficient. As a result, outlier diagnostics for individual observations and for subsets of observations are used to achieve a relative index of influentiality within the spectrum of efficiency. These outlier diagnostic tests consistently flag the same subset of efficient and inefficient observations as the frontier models and additionally clarify ranking discrepancies among the frontier model specifications.     

Measuring and Decomposing Productivity Change

Measuring productivity change with Malmquist indices has become common practice, because they are easily computed using nonparametric programming techniques and can be readily decomposed into technical and efficiency change. However, this approach is nonstochastic and requires a constant returns to scale assumption to construct the reference technology. We propose estimating productivity change using a stochastic input distance frontier, imposing no restrictions on returns to scale. We derive the analogous decomposition of productivity change and develop a generalized method of moments strategy in which outputs or inputs may be endogenous. We compare two methods in an application to electric utilities.     

数字经济、空间效应与全要素生产率

当前,数字经济蓬勃发展,已成为经济增长的新动能。本文从数字产业化与产业数字化 两个维度,采用主成分分析法构建了数字经济发展水平的指标体系,并利用2004-2017年我国省际面板 数据,在克服内生性问题的基础上,实证分析了数字经济发展对全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,数字 经济发展显著促进了全要素生产率的提升。但较之高生产率地区和东部地区,数字经济发展对低生产率地区和中西部地区全要素生产率的提升作用更大。就机制而言,人力资本投资与产业结构升级是数 字经济影响全要素生产率的两个渠道。进一步的空间计量分析表明,数字经济发展不仅会提升本地区 的全要素生产率,还存在显著的空间溢出效应,有助于提升邻近地区的全要素生产率。本文的研究为评估数字经济发展的影响效果提供了数据支撑和分析视角,也为探寻全要素生产率的提升路径提供了政策参考。     

中国省际农业生产力成长差异及其结构性因素

近几年,由于政策推动等多方面因素作用,中国农业连续五年实现粮食大幅增产,结构性调整也正逐步推进。但多年来,要素投入而非技术进步是支撑中国农业增长的根本要素这一状况并未得以根本改变。通过测度省际间农业生产力成长水平可见,技术退步是造成近年来中国农业生产力趋于下降的根本原因。另一方面,定量考察影响农业生产力变动的结构性因素时发现,部分旨在提升农业生产力水平的政策,从实际效果来看并未能够达成政策的初衷,有必要做出适当修正。     

资本错配会诱发全要素生产率损失吗

当前要素错配已成为发展中国家的普遍现象,但前沿文献更多关注劳动力错配而非资本错配对全要素生产率的影响。本文构建不完全市场条件下的多部门模型,以资本流动系数表征资本错配水平,结合中国1978-2010年八大产业面板数据定量测算资本错配对全要素生产率的影响。结果显示：资本配置效率整体对全要素生产率增长的作用为负,源于资本错配引发的资源配置效率损失对全要素生产率的影响突出,诱致全要素生产率下降2.6%。同时,资本错配使实际产出与潜在产出形成较大缺口,实际产出仅占潜在产出的70%-89%。这可能源于金融系统的垄断抑制资本自由流动,引致产业间资本出现较大程度的错配,造成全要素生产率和产出效率损失。     

提高生产率成长率的三种外部因素分析

通过对500家上市公司的实证分析发现,产品竞争、金融压力和股东控制这三种外部因素同企业生产率成长率存在一定程度的正相关关系。垄断租金与价值增加值之比同企业生产率成长率负相关;利息支付额与现金流量之比同生产率成长率正相关;存在占支配地位的大股东控制会导致更高的生产率成长率。同时,也有证据显示金融压力和股东控制这两个因素能够替代产品竞争。     

The trinity of wage setting in EMU: A policy proposal

Diverging labor cost developments are often considered to be one of the most important factors that led to large current account imbalances in the euro area (EA) in the run-up to the global financial crisis. It has also been shown that wage growth differentials have significantly lowered the co-movement of EA countries’ business cycles – the most widely used meta-criterion for optimum currency areas. Against this background, this paper develops a wage-setting benchmark that aims to keep the economy in internal equilibrium and to maintain price stability, while it also exhibits the capacity to correct for external imbalances. The proposed wage benchmark is very simple and may serve as an anchor for the macroeconomic dialogue in Economic and Monetary Union. In order to demonstrate the potentially beneficial effects of such a wage benchmark we present some simulations showing how current account balances and labor costs would have developed across EA countries if the rule had served as a benchmark already in the run up to the crisis.     

开创上海经济和信息化发展新局面

上海产业经济和信息化发展必须围绕改革的主线,准确把握国内外发展环境的变化,加快转变战略思路和发展方式;要基于需求分析明确发展方向,基于市场机制推进专项行动,基于分类管理推进改革创新,促进上海产业经济走高端化、集约化、服务化发展道路,进一步发挥信息化和智慧城市建设的引领带动作用;要坚持发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用,把握价值规律,建立市场规则,完善价格机制,使市场供给能满足、适应和创造市场需求,最大限度地激发市场化活力,进一步解放和发展社会生产力;必须加快推进＂创新驱动、转型发展＂,构建新型产业体系,打造上海经济和信息化升级版,积极探索新型工业化、信息化、城镇化融合发展之路。     

Long-term Growth Perspectives and Economic Convergence of CEE and SEE Countries

The paper first investigates the main drivers of economic growth and real convergence in CEE and SEE Countries. In the theoretical framework provided by the growth-accounting approach, both are shown to be driven by capital accumulation and total factor productivity changes, with the latter making however a major contribution. The nominal convergence path towards the Eurozone is then analysed. Despite considerable results obtained in the last decade, most EU new members are still found to face severe challenges in the process of converging towards Maastricht criteria. The need to reconcile exchange rate stability with inflation convergence is in particular seen to be at the heart of their de facto decision to delay the EMU entry date until a higher degree of real convergence will have been achieved.

关于中国全要素生产率测度的研究——基于一阶差分对数模型和有效资本存量的再测算

本文对以往我国全要素生产率测度中存在的问题做了较为系统的分析,试图总结一套科学且具有可操作性的测度方法。本文在区分实际资本存量和有效资本存量的基础上,根据我国资本存量估算数据,采用一阶差分对数模型和有关经济计量学方法,估计资本与劳动的产出弹性,避免了可能出现的“伪回归”“序列相关”“多重共线性”和“异方差”等问题,从而保证所测度的产出弹性估计值既符合经济理论分析又能通过经济计量学检验。本文还阐述了全要素生产率与广义技术进步这两个指标 的联系与区别,并通过实证分析揭示了不同时期两项指标产生差异的原因。实证分析结果表明,改革开放以来全要素生产率提高对促进我国经济增长发挥了重要作用。