美国媒体在世纪初战争中的作为和立场分析——与越战对比

2004年以来,美国媒体报道的军方虐囚丑闻至今未曾停息。媒体在世纪初战争中的这一表现与40年前在越战中的表现有一定的相似性,但是由于时代背景和战争对手的不同,媒体的战争表现存在一定的差异。笔者试图从媒体的报道方式、战争对手的形象建构、媒体在战争中的能动性以及报道立场这四个方面将二者作对比,分析其中的异同,并由此预测,美国媒体在下一场战争中形成大规模反战论调的可能性不大。     

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

冷战后日美同盟的强化——以联合军事演习为视角

日美联合军事演习的发展演变,体现出冷战后日美同盟的强化:作用范围扩大化、军事合作一体化、战略地位中心化、地区威慑强势化.     

美国"冷战"政策与日苏领土问题的形成

战后日苏领土问题的形成,与美国"冷战"政策有密切关系。美国因"冷战"政策而转变对《雅尔塔协定》的态度,使苏联获得有关领土的法律依据缺少说服力,同时也给日本收回领土提供了口实;美国主导的《旧金山对日媾和条约》要求日本放弃有关领土,但又不规定其最终归属对象;美国对日苏两国恢复邦交正常化谈判的干涉,表面上支持日本方面主张,实质上阻止日本方面妥协而使领土问题成为遗留问题。美国国际"冷战"政策是造成战后日苏及日俄领土问题形成最重要的外来因素。     

A simple two-stage design for quantitative responses with application to a study in diabetic neuropathic pain

Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to be stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase II and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail.     

《共产党人》与抗日战争时期党的干部教育

抗战时期党的干部教育是顺应革命形势的发展和干部队伍自身建设的需要而广泛兴起和发展的。《共产党人》是抗战时期中共中央主办的专门研究党的建设理论和实践的党内刊物,刊登了大量党关于干部教育的决定和指示、研究性论文和干部教育通讯,有力地推进了党的干部教育的政策制定、理论解读和实践开展。     

解放战争时期党在解放区的土地政策探析

解放战争时期中国共产党在解放区的土地政策,是我们党的一项重要政策.根据当时的背景变化,党在解放区的土地政策经历了一个历史的演变过程,在中国革命和建设中做出了巨大历史贡献.     

治理能力与社会机会——基于世界治理指标的实证研究

社会机会能够提高人类的发展水平,促进社会成员个人发展质量的提高.社会成员对社会机会的广泛共享是经济社会协调发展的基本取向,也是政府治理行为追求的重要目标之一.通过对各国政府治理能力和社会机会水平之间关系的实证研究发现,治理能力的提升有助于社会机会的扩大,能够促进全社会成员共享经济和社会发展的成果.     

Identifying the most successful dose (MSD) in dose-finding studies in cancer

For a dose finding study in cancer, the most successful dose (MSD), among a group of available doses, is that dose at which the overall success rate is the highest. This rate is the product of the rate of seeing non-toxicities together with the rate of tumor response. A successful dose finding trial in this context is one where we manage to identify the MSD in an efficient manner. In practice we may also need to consider algorithms for identifying the MSD which can incorporate certain restrictions, the most common restriction maintaining the estimated toxicity rate alone below some maximum rate. In this case the MSD may correspond to a different level than that for the unconstrained MSD and, in providing a final recommendation, it is important to underline that it is subject to the given constraint. We work with the approach described in O'Quigley et al. [Biometrics 2001; 57(4):1018-1029]. The focus of that work was dose finding in HIV where both information on toxicity and efficacy were almost immediately available. Recent cancer studies are beginning to fall under this same heading where, as before, toxicity can be quickly evaluated and, in addition, we can rely on biological markers or other measures of tumor response. Mindful of the particular context of cancer, our purpose here is to consider the methodology developed by O'Quigley et al. and its practical implementation. We also carry out a study on the doubly under-parameterized model, developed by O'Quigley et al. but not     

Origins of the epithet ‘government by public relations’: Revisiting Bruce Catton's War Lords of Washington, 1948

While it might make public relations professionals and faculty cringe, the term ‘government by public relations’ is a negative one, implying that governmental decision-making is guided by appearances rather than on the merits. This tag line is a relatively common American put-down of politicians and senior civil servants. This article examines the origins of the term, locating its usage in the WWII memoirs of Bruce Catton, then a government public information officer and later a renowned popular historian of the American Civil War. Catton's use of the term, his 1948 book War Lords of Washington, and his philosophy of government public information are examined in more detail to give context to the phrase ‘government by public relations.’