全面抗战时期大后方大学教师和学生生活水平结构研究

全面抗战时期，受战时通货膨胀影响，大后方大学教师和学生群体的生活水平迅速下降，但与真正意义上的"赤贫阶层"尚有距离，决定大学教师和学生生活水平的关键要素相比战前已发生变化。战前大学教师的生活水平结构与教师职级、教育水平紧密相关，而战时大后方大学教师的生活水平结构则受到薪金、兼职、家庭负担等多方面因素的共同制约。战前大学生的主体是社会中间阶层出身的子弟，校园内的生活水平结构呈"橄榄型"，战时大后方大学校园内的生活水平结构则截然二分为富裕和清贫学生两部分，清贫学生成为学生群体中的主体。全面抗战时期大后方大学教师和学生生活水平结构的变化，既有战时客观因素的制约，也受到国民政府相应教育政策的影响。     

抗战时期陕甘宁边区学前教育建设的经验与启示

抗战时期，陕甘宁边区在中国共产党的领导下进行了独具特色的学前教育建设活动，形成了独特的建设经验，主要包括提供保障措施、建立精简高效的组织架构、注重保教队伍的建设、关爱幼儿的身体健康、开展科学的教育教学工作。重现边区学前教育活动，探寻其成功经验，继承与发扬红色教育精神，对新时期幼儿的培养与培育有积极的现实指导意义。     

Adaptive designs for single‐arm phase II trials in oncology

Clinical phase II trials in oncology are conducted to determine whether the activity of a new anticancer treatment is promising enough to merit further investigation. Two‐stage designs are commonly used for this situation to allow for early termination. Designs proposed in the literature so far have the common drawback that the sample sizes for the two stages have to be specified in the protocol and have to be adhered to strictly during the course of the trial. As a consequence, designs that allow a higher extent of flexibility are desirable. In this article, we propose a new adaptive method that allows an arbitrary modification of the sample size of the second stage using the results of the interim analysis or external information while controlling the type I error rate. If the sample size is not changed during the trial, the proposed design shows very similar characteristics to the optimal two‐stage design proposed by Chang et al. (Biometrics 1987; 43:865–874). However, the new design allows the use of mid‐course information for the planning of the second stage, thus meeting practical requirements when performing clinical phase II trials in oncology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

当前阿拉伯革命态势分析

阿拉伯世界自2011年以来发生持续动荡，埃及、突尼斯、利比亚、叙利亚先后出现政局动荡甚至政局颠覆。当前阿拉伯世界的各种力量之间相互博弈，这将长期左右阿拉伯世界的政局。伊斯兰政治势力不断壮大，其极端思想及行为是阿拉伯世界政局动荡的重要影响力量，阿拉伯世界的青年人对政局不满，不断爆发大规模示威游行，处于边缘地位的工人阶级、世俗主义者与非政治民众对当前局势的态度也影响着阿拉伯地区的稳定。     

伊拉克战争以来中国与伊拉克的关系

伊战前中伊两国间保持着长期的友好交往。伊战结束后，中国积极参与了联合国倡导的伊拉克重建，并与美国等西方国家及俄国、阿拉伯国家合作，与伊拉克新政权建立了良好的关系。中国公司也积极参与了伊拉克的经济重建。与战前相比，中伊经济关系发生重大变化，即贸易规模迅速扩大，能源合作的地位上升，中国从贸易顺差变为逆差，而中国公司的投资从一般制造业和建筑承包转向能源和高层次的制造业。中国对伊拉克新政权的外交政策和经济合作对于伊的稳定和发展起到了积极作用，同时保证了中国在伊的权益，在2014年6月以来伊拉克的动荡中，中国和伊拉克共同努力妥善保障了中国的利益。     

加入WTO与中国社会保障制度的发展与完善

十年来中国社会保障建设取得了很大的成就,社会保障成为改善民生和社会建设重要领域和促进力量,对于克服经济全球化深入发展背景下各种矛盾、促进经济发展和社会稳定发挥着积极的作用。但是,中国社会保障制度还不完善,面对世界贸易组织框架下越来越复杂的国际国内形势,需要进一步加快社会保障制度建设,选择科学合理的社会保障模式和管理体制,加强社会保障公共服务体系建设,实现人人享有社会保障。     

An evaluation of donor agencies’ policies on participatory development: The case of Ghana

This article critically evaluates guidelines concerning participatory development by the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). It focuses on the different conceptual frameworks adopted in order to examine the different ways of incorporating participation in their development agenda. A literature‐based method was adopted and the analysis included evaluation of five documented experiences, including the Ghana Secondary Education Improvement Project and Ghana Water Sanitation and Hygiene Project from both the World Bank and USAID. Baum project cycle stages have been taken as activities for project participation. The findings show the need for better planning, ensuring sustainability and involving beneficiaries.     

Bayesian estimation and prediction for Weibull model with progressive censoring

This article presents the statistical inferences on Weibull parameters with the data that are progressively type II censored. The maximum likelihood estimators are derived. For incorporation of previous information with current data, the Bayesian approach is considered. We obtain the Bayes estimators under squared error loss with a bivariate prior distribution, and derive the credible intervals for the parameters of Weibull distribution. Also, the Bayes prediction intervals for future observations are obtained in the one- and two-sample cases. The method is shown to be practical, although a computer program is required for its implementation. A numerical example is presented for illustration and some simulation study are performed.     

Pitman closeness,monotonicity and consistency of best linear unbiased and invariant estimators for exponential distribution under Type II censoring

Comparisons of best linear unbiased estimators with some other prominent estimators have been carried out over the last 50 years since the ground breaking work of Lloyd [E.H. Lloyd, Least squares estimation of location and scale parameters using order statistics, Biometrika 39 (1952), pp. 88–95]. These comparisons have been made under many different criteria across different parametric families of distributions. A noteworthy one is by Nagaraja [H.N. Nagaraja, Comparison of estimators and predictors from two-parameter exponential distribution, Sankhyā Ser. B 48 (1986), pp. 10–18], who made a comparison of best linear unbiased (BLUE) and best linear invariant (BLIE) estimators in the case of exponential distribution. In this paper, continuing along the same lines by assuming a Type II right censored sample from a scaled-exponential distribution, we first compare BLUE and BLIE of the exponential mean parameter in terms of Pitman closeness (nearness) criterion. We show that the BLUE is always Pitman closer than the BLIE. Next, we introduce the notions of Pitman monotonicity and Pitman consistency, and then establish that both BLUE and BLIE possess these two properties.     

论团结抗日民族政策的历史作用

为了抗日图存,中国共产党制定了团结抗日的民族政策———建立抗日民族统一战线,主张民族平等和民族团结,各少数民族有自治之权,帮助少数民族发展经济文化,尊重其语言文字和宗教习惯的自由。陕甘宁边区和其他抗日根据地认真贯彻执行了党的民族政策,从而有力地推动了各少数民族的英勇抗战,赢得了抗日战争的最后胜利。