Steuerreformen durch Tarif-oder Zeiteffekte? Eine Analyse am Beispiel der Thesaurierungsbegünstigung für Personenunternehmen

Zusammenfassung  Der Beitrag diskutiert Tarif- und Zinseffekte anhand der begünstigten Besteuerung nicht entnommener Gewinne von Personengesellschaften, die 2008 in Deutschland eingeführt wurde. Bei Eigenfinanzierung und Betrachtung von Grenzsteuers?tzen zeigt der Beitrag, dass die Thesaurierungsbegünstigung stets nachteilig ist, wenn eine abgeltend besteuerte private Kapitalmarktanlage die Alternativanlage darstellt. Müssen Gewinne thesauriert werden, weil Mittel im Unternehmen ben?tigt werden, so entf?llt die private Alternativanlage und die Thesaurierungsbegünstigung kann bei hohen Zins- und Steuers?tzen vorteilhaft sein. Wird die Einkommensteuerprogression berücksichtigt, zeigt der Beitrag, dass bei schwankenden Gewinnen die Thesaurierungsbegünstigung oftmals vorteilhaft ist, auch gegenüber der Abgeltungsteuer. Bei fremdfinanzierten Investitionen kann die Inanspruchnahme der Thesaurierungsbegünstigung sehr vorteilhaft sein, da die geringere Steuerzahlung bei Gewinnanfall den Umfang des ben?tigten Fremdkapitals mindert. Insgesamt zeigt sich, dass sich Reformen von Steuertarifen wesentlich st?rker auf die Vorteilhaftigkeit von Investitionen auswirken als Zinseffekte.

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Tax reforms by tax rate effects or timing effects? An analysis based an the German tax privilege for retained earnings

Summary  This paper analyzes two typical effects of tax reforms, tax rate effects and timing effects. The example chosen for the analysis is the tax privilege for retained profits of partnerships and sole proprietorships, which was implemented in Germany in 2008. Taking equity-financing and top marginal tax rates into account, the so-called tax privilege turns out to be a disadvantage under most assumptions. If the alternative investment is private capital income taxed at a flat-rate tax, the tax privilege will always be disadvantageous. If profits have to be retained and business income is the alternative investment, then the tax privilege will be advantageous in case of high income tax rates and interest rates. Analyzing progressive tax rates instead of top marginal tax rates reveals favorable results in case of fluctuating profits if the tax privilege is claimed. The same is true if debtfinancing is taken into account. All in all, the paper shows that a reform of tax rates influences the attractiveness of investments much more compared to timing effects.

     

Identifying Social Interactions Through Conditional Variance Restrictions

This paper proposes a new method for identifying social interactions using conditional variance restrictions. The method provides a consistent estimate of the social multiplier when social interactions take the “linear‐in‐means” form (Manski (1993)). When social interactions are not of the linear‐in‐means form, the estimator, under certain conditions, continues to form the basis of a consistent test of the no social interactions null with correct large sample size. The methods are illustrated using data from the Tennessee class size reduction experiment Project STAR. The application suggests that differences in peer group quality were an important source of individual‐level variation in the academic achievement of Project STAR kindergarten students.     

Tests and Confidence Intervals for an Extended Variance Component Using the Modified Likelihood Ratio Statistic

Abstract.  The large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic is studied for testing a variance component equal to a specified value. Formulas are presented in the general balanced case, whereas in the unbalanced case only the one-way random effects model is studied. Simulation studies are presented, showing that the normal approximation to the large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic gives confidence intervals for variance components with coverage probabilities very close to the nominal confidence coefficient.     

Does work during childhood affect the health of Guatemalan adults?

The diversity of potential relationships between child labor and health makes the empirical disentanglement of the causal relationship a difficult exercise. This paper examines the long run impact of child labour on health by controlling for unobserved household specific characteristics. In order to control for the unobserved households specific effect, we estimate a conditional fixed effect model using data on siblings constructed from the Guatemalan National Survey of Living Condition. The estimation results reinforce the conventional wisdom that child labor is harmful for health in the long run. The results can be interpreted as a lower bound of the true impact since healthier children are most likely to offer themselves for employment and to be appointed. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of IMF and IMF policy.     

买方市场条件下的企业营销对策

买方市场的形成是我国经济发展过程的一个划时代变化，它将对我国企业经营和营销带来严峻挑战。本文分析了我国买方市场的形成、特征及其对企业营销的影响，并就买方市场条件下企业营销对策进行了重点分析。     

Psychological Implications of Motherhood and Fatherhood in Midlife: Evidence From Sibling Models

Using data from 4,744 full, twin, half‐, adopted, and stepsiblings in the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, I examine psychological consequences of motherhood and fatherhood in midlife. My analysis includes between‐family models that compare individuals across families and within‐family models comparing siblings from the same family to account for unobserved genetic and environmental endowments that may confound the relationship between parenthood and mental health. Further, I examine whether the psychological effect of parenthood varies among different types of sibling dyads. The findings reveal that parenthood has similar psychological implications for middle‐aged mothers and fathers. Main differences arise from specific configurations of the parental role. The association between parenthood and mental health partly reflects genetic influences but not shared early‐life environment.     

Identifying Dispersion Effects in Robust Design Experiments—Issues and Improvements

The two experimental methods most commonly used for reducing the effect of noise factors on a response of interest Y aim either to estimate a model of the variability (V(Y), or an associated function), that is transmitted by the noise factors, or to estimate a model of the ratio between the response (Y) and all the control and noise factors involved therein. Both methods aim to determine which control factor conditions minimise the noise factors' effect on the response of interest, and a series of analytical guidelines are established to reach this end. Product array designs allow robustness problems to be solved in both ways, but require a large number of experiments. Thus, practitioners tend to choose more economical designs that only allow them to model the surface response for Y. The general assumption is that both methods would lead to similar conclusions. In this article we present a case that utilises a design based on a product design and for which the conclusions yielded by the two analytical methods are quite different. This example casts doubt on the guidelines that experimental practice follows when using either of the two methods. Based on this example, we show the causes behind these discrepancies and we propose a number of guidelines to help researchers in the design and interpretation of robustness problems when using either of the two methods.     

Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models and Frailty Models with Bayesian Nonparametric Mixing

This paper proposes Bayesian nonparametric mixing for some well-known and popular models. The distribution of the observations is assumed to contain an unknown mixed effects term which includes a fixed effects term, a function of the observed covariates, and an additive or multiplicative random effects term. Typically these random effects are assumed to be independent of the observed covariates and independent and identically distributed from a distribution from some known parametric family. This assumption may be suspect if either there is interaction between observed covariates and unobserved covariates or the fixed effects predictor of observed covariates is misspecified. Another cause for concern might be simply that the covariates affect more than just the location of the mixed effects distribution. As a consequence the distribution of the random effects could be highly irregular in modality and skewness leaving parametric families unable to model the distribution adequately. This paper therefore proposes a Bayesian nonparametric prior for the random effects to capture possible deviances in modality and skewness and to explore the observed covariates' effect on the distribution of the mixed effects.     

AN ALGORITHMIC APPROACH TO BAYESIAN LINEAR MODEL CALCULATIONS

A framework is described for organizing and understanding the computations necessary to obtain the posterior mean of a vector of linear effects in a normal linear model, conditional on the parameters that determine covariance structure. The approach has two major uses; firstly, as a pedagogical tool in the derivation of formulae, and secondly, as a practical tool for developing computational strategies without needing complicated matrix formulae that are often unwieldy in complex hierarchical models. The proposed technique is based upon symbolic application of the sweep operator SWP to an appropriate tableau of means and covariances. The method is illustrated with standard linear model specifications, including the so-called mixed model, with both fixed and random effects.     

Estimating the Risks of Smoking, Air Pollution, and Passive Smoke on Acute Respiratory Conditions

Five years of the annual Health Interview Survey, conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics, are used to estimate the effects of air pollution, smoking, and environmental tobacco smoke on respiratory restrictions in activity for adults, and bed disability for children. After adjusting for several socioeconomic factors, the multiple regression estimates indicate that an independent and statistically significant association exists between these three forms of air pollution and respiratory morbidity. The comparative risks of these exposures are computed and the plausibility of the relative risks is examined by comparing the equivalent doses with actual measurements of exposure taken in the homes of smokers. The results indicate that: (1) smokers will have a 55-75% excess in days with respiratory conditions severe enough to cause reductions in normal activity; (2) a 1 microgram increase in fine particulate matter air pollution is associated with a 3% excess in acute respiratory disease; and (3) a pack-a-day smoker will increase respiratory restricted days for a nonsmoking spouse by 20% and increase the number of bed disability days for young children living in the household by 20%. The results also indicate that the estimates of the effects of secondhand smoking on children are improved when the mother's work status is known and incorporated into the exposure estimate.