基于Petri网的微博网络信息传播模型

微博网络中的信息传播模型是分析用户行为,找出传播路径,确定领袖人物,发现舆情热点等研究的基础。虽然多种不同角度的信息传播模型已经得到广泛研究,但缺乏对信息动态传播过程的直观描述。本文基于Petri网的结构和特征,针对微博网络信息传播过程,提出了一种简单直观的描述模型,该模型首先对微博网络的信息动态传播过程中的对象进行结构化描述。本文根据微博网络的用户结构关系,并利用Petri网的相关理论,形式化解释和定义信息传播基本对象,从而更加直接描述了微博网络中的转发、评论、回复等多种用户行为。在此基础上,本文利用Petri网能够描述信息流动问题的特征,结合颜色Petri网和时延Petri网,从Petri网系统的角度表示信息动态传播路径,并研究网络的动态性质和传播条件,使得信息传播模型更加真实地模拟信息传播情况。最后本文分析信息传播算例和新浪微博真实数据实验,验证了模型的有效性和可行性,为舆情态势分析以及用户行为的研究提供帮助和支持,同时也为其它社交网络信息传播的用户行为描述提供了新的思路。     

融资融券交易行为及其收益可预测性研究

2010 年融资融券业务的开通,不仅为中国市场投资者引入卖空机制,同时也为投机性交易者提供杠杆放大机制． 不同于以往主要从制度变迁视角研究卖空机制, 本文从微观行为视角,系统研究信用账户投资者融资融券交易行为及其市场可预测性． 基于 2011 年 12 月 ～ 2015年 8 月的样本数据,研究发现,信用账户投资者在股票价格上涨后增加融资买入, 而在股票价格下跌后提高融券卖出,即采取“追涨杀跌”的投资策略． 进一步研究表明, 融资交易能预测正的未来收益,而融券交易能预测负的未来收益． 此外,融资交易提高了未来股价崩盘风险,融券交易则可以降低未来股价崩盘发生的可能性． 本文的研究揭示了中国市场投资者融资融券微观交易行为及其市场影响,并为进一步规范发展融资融券业务提供理论依据．     

A Literature Review of Organizational Behavior Management Interventions in Human Service Settings from 1990 to 2016

We reviewed the Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis (JABA), Journal of Organizational Behavior Management (JOBM), and Behavior Analysis in Practice (BAP) from 1990 to 2016, to identify articles that evaluated organizational behavior management interventions in a human service setting. Of those articles, 75 articles met the inclusion criteria for the review, 44 from JABA (1990 to 2016), 22 from JOBM (1990 to 2016), and 7 from BAP (2008 to 2016). We categorized each selected article by setting, employee population, client population, assessment, dependent variable, independent variable, and outcome measures. Results from the review are discussed for all three journals. Recommendations are made to broaden the scope of population and dependent variable targets, include more assessments, and include outcome data when applicable.     

On the Compatibility of Organizational Behavior Management and BACB Certification

The number of practicing behavior analysts who hold Behavior Analyst Certification Board (BACB) certification has substantially increased in the past decade. Some have mistakenly interpreted the BACB’s certification requirements as being specific to the autism and intellectual disabilities practice area. We present key BACB requirements, describe how they are practice-area neutral, and provide specific examples of their relevance to organizational behavior management.     

Change agent's contribution to recipients' resistance to change: A two-sided story

In the change management literature, most studies on recipients' resistance to change include only the views of agents or of recipients, thereby ignoring that these parties may have different perceptions. In this quantitative study, we include the perceptions of both parties in studying the recipients' resistance and the impact of the agent's leadership behavior. In a sample of 117 agent-recipients groupings, covering 110 different change projects in 90 organizations, we found that agents perceive higher levels of recipients' resistance than do the recipients themselves. Additionally, we found that agents who create space to enable recipients to think and act differently (by employing creating behavior) report higher levels of recipients' resistance, whereas recipients perceive their resistance to be lowered when agents facilitate an emotional connection to the change (framing behavior). The depth of the change appeared to moderate the relationship between agent's leadership behavior and recipients' resistance, indicating that agents and recipients differ in which change leadership behaviors they perceive as increasing or decreasing resistance at different levels of change depth. These findings imply to reconsider the relationship between agent and recipients and we propose some promising avenues for future studies in resistance research.     

Leader-member exchange as a linking pin in the idiosyncratic deals - Performance relationship in workgroups

In the current investigation, idiosyncratic deals (i-deals; individualized work arrangements) are modeled as differentiated resources that shape leader-member exchange (LMX) relationships in workgroups. We integrate literature on leader-member exchange (LMX) with research on i-deals to argue that employee evaluations of i-deals received from the grantor –typically the leader- enhance employee perceptions of LMX, which in turn become instrumental in generating positive performance outcomes. Furthermore, because workgroup characteristics have potential implications on the relationship between a deal grantor and the deal recipient, drawing upon social identity theory of leadership, we reason that the i-deals-LMX relationship is affected by the overall value congruence among the group members. Cross-level moderated mediation analyses on multi source data obtained from 289 employees nested in 60 workgroups showed that the mediational role of LMX in the i-deals to performance outcomes relationship was weaker in high value congruence groups.     

企业产品创新的扩散与采纳者的行为决策模式研究

在SIR模型基础上,根据信息经济学理论从个体层面研究了产品创新扩散过程中采纳者行为决策的决定因子及其行为选择方式,同时得出了一些促进产品创新扩散的重要结论.     

Toward Improving Food Safety in the Domestic Environment: A Multi-Item Rasch Scale for the Measurement of the Safety Efficacy of Domestic Food-Handling Practices

To reduce consumer health risks from foodborne diseases that result from improper domestic food handling, consumers need to know how to safely handle food. To realize improvements in public health, it is necessary to develop interventions that match the needs of individual consumers. Successful intervention strategies are therefore contingent on identifying not only the practices that are important for consumer protection, but also barriers that prevent consumers from responding to these interventions. A measure of food safety behavior is needed to assess the effectiveness of different intervention strategies across different groups of consumers. A nationally representative survey was conducted in the Netherlands to determine which practices are likely conducted by which consumers. Participants reported their behaviors with respect to 55 different food-handling practices. The Rasch modeling technique was used to determine a general measure for the likelihood of an average consumer performing each food-handling behavior. Simultaneously, an average performance measure was estimated for each consumer. These two measures can be combined to predict the likelihood that an individual consumer engages in a specific food-handling behavior. A single "food safety" dimension was shown to underlie all items. Some potentially safe practices (e.g., use of meat thermometers) were reported as very difficult, while other safe practices were conducted by respondents more frequently (e.g., washing of fresh fruit and vegetables). A cluster analysis was applied to the resulting data set, and five segments of consumers were identified. Different behaviors may have different effects on microbial growth in food, and thus have different consequences for human health. Once the microbial relevance of the different consumer behaviors has been confirmed by experiments and modeling, the scale developed in the research reported here can be used to develop risk communication targeted to the needs of different consumer groups, as well as to measure the efficacy of different interventions.     

Behavioral pathways to private well risk mitigation: A structural equation modeling approach

Complex, multihazard risks such as private groundwater contamination necessitate multiannual risk reduction actions including seasonal, weather-based hazard evaluations. In the Republic of Ireland (ROI), high rural reliance on unregulated private wells renders behavior promotion a vital instrument toward safeguarding household health from waterborne infection. However, to date, pathways between behavioral predictors remain unknown while latent constructs such as extreme weather event (EWE) risk perception and self-efficacy (perceived behavioral competency) have yet to be sufficiently explored. Accordingly, a nationwide survey of 560 Irish private well owners was conducted, with structural equation modeling (SEM) employed to identify underlying relationships determining key supply management behaviors. The pathway analysis (SEM) approach was used to model three binary outcomes: information seeking, post-EWE action, and well testing behavior. Upon development of optimal models, perceived self-efficacy emerged as a significant direct and/or indirect driver of all three behavior types—demonstrating the greatest indirect effect (β = −0.057) on adoption of post-EWE actions and greatest direct (β = 0.222) and total effect (β = 0.245) on supply testing. Perceived self-efficacy inversely influenced EWE risk perception in all three models but positively influenced supply awareness (where present). Notably, the presence of a vulnerable (infant and/or elderly) household member negatively influenced adoption of post-EWE actions (β = −0.131, p = 0.016). Results suggest that residential and age-related factors constitute key demographic variables influencing risk mitigation and are strongly mediated by cognitive variables—particularly self-efficacy. Study findings may help contextualize predictors of private water supply management, providing a basis for future risk-based water interventions.     

网络舆情扰动下房地产投资者“追涨杀跌”行为扩散研究

一旦房地产投资者“追涨杀跌”行为发生大范围扩散,将诱发房地产市场的价格严重偏离甚至动荡。本文从传播学与行为金融学交叉视角,基于复杂网络理论构建了房地产投资者“追涨杀跌”行为的网络扩散模型,进而仿真分析了网络舆情与投资者行为偏好交互作用下房地产投资者“追涨杀跌”行为扩散的演化特征。研究表明：房地产投资者越偏向于随机建立关联,“追涨杀跌”行为越可能快速扩散;网络舆情因素在“追涨杀跌”行为扩散过程中发挥主导作用,同时对投资者行为偏好因素发挥较强的“强化效应”或“抑制效应”;当媒体权威性足够高或网民情绪足够乐观时,通过综合调节网络舆情和投资者行为偏好因素能够有效实现预防和限制“追涨杀跌”行为扩散的目的。