A note on fiducial model averaging as an alternative to checking Bayesian and frequentist models

Just as frequentist hypothesis tests have been developed to check model assumptions, prior predictive p-values and other Bayesian p-values check prior distributions as well as other model assumptions. These model checks not only suffer from the usual threshold dependence of p-values, but also from the suppression of model uncertainty in subsequent inference. One solution is to transform Bayesian and frequentist p-values for model assessment into a fiducial distribution across the models. Averaging the Bayesian or frequentist posterior distributions with respect to the fiducial distribution can reproduce results from Bayesian model averaging or classical fiducial inference.     

水库移民生活水平和生产条件恢复的测度研究

本文按照移民搬迁前后的生产方式是否改变,分别讨论了移民生活水平和生产条件变化的特点.探讨了不同情况下对移民生产生活恢复情况的测度方法.在分析各方法特点的基础上,建议在移民验收工作中用单项枚举法来进行评定.     

Checking the Short‐Term and Long‐Term Hazard Ratio Model for Survival Data

Abstract. The short‐term and long‐term hazard ratio model includes the proportional hazards model and the proportional odds model as submodels, and allows a wider range of hazard ratio patterns compared with some of the more traditional models. We propose two omnibus tests for checking this model, based, respectively, on the martingale residuals and the contrast between the non‐parametric and model‐based estimators of the survival function. These tests are shown to be consistent against any departure from the model. The empirical behaviours of the tests are studied in simulations, and the tests are illustrated with some real data examples.     

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility: A Review

The literature on multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) models has developed significantly over the last few years. This paper reviews the substantial literature on specification, estimation, and evaluation of MSV models. A wide range of MSV models is presented according to various categories, namely, (i) asymmetric models, (ii) factor models, (iii) time-varying correlation models, and (iv) alternative MSV specifications, including models based on the matrix exponential transformation, the Cholesky decomposition, and the Wishart autoregressive process. Alternative methods of estimation, including quasi-maximum likelihood, simulated maximum likelihood, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, are discussed and compared. Various methods of diagnostic checking and model comparison are also reviewed.     

复核与核准：死刑复核程序应加区分的两个阶段

死刑复核程序是死刑案件的必经程序,是防止错杀、误杀的最后一道防线。为了保证死刑案件的质量,对最高人民法院即将收回死刑核准权的举措,本文持赞成态度。在此基础上,本文首次指出,死刑复核程序其实是由死刑复核和死刑核准两个不同的阶段组成的,死刑复核权和核准权是可以分离的,最高人民法院收回的只是死刑的核准权,而不是死刑的复核权,因此,高级人民法院仍然可以同最高人民法院共同享有并依法行使死刑案件的复核权,但不能再行使死刑的核准权。通过论证,本文就死刑复核和核准两个阶段的具体程序分别进行了分析和探讨,并设计了它们应当具有的基本内容。     

经济学视角下的信用证审单标准

长期以来,人们一直从纯法律的角度审视信用证审单标准问题,其效果并不理想。从法律经济学的视角来考察信用证审单标准问题,以福利最大化与成本最低化为分析原则,通过效益分析的手段,对镜像标准、实质相符标准、双重标准（又称中间标准）、严格相符标准进行逐项解析,最终得出严格相符标准最符合福利最大化与成本最低化的结论,以期加深人们对信用证法律特性的理解。     

千河特大桥现浇预应力连续箱梁组合支架方案设计

千河特大桥3跨预应力连续箱梁的现浇支架方案设计采用上层碗扣式支架与下层贝雷梁支架组合的结构形式.对组合支架进行强度、刚度及稳定性的检算结果表明,支架力学性能符合规范要求.为今后类似条件的施工临时结构支架方案设计提供参考.     

P帧快速模式选择算法

针对H.264编码算法中,预测帧(P帧)编码模式的选择过程异常复杂,开销大的问题,提出了一种新的快速模式选择算法,该算法利用直流系数能预先判定P帧编码模式的有效范围,缩小备选编码模式的可选范围,从而使模式选择的复杂度大为降低。实验结果表明,该算法可以使编码时间降低54%～74%,峰值信噪比提高0.05 dB～0.17 dB,同时码率变化范围为-3.14%～3.97%。应用结果表明,该算法在基于TI's TMS320DM642视频压缩系统中1路D1视频的压缩速度为25帧/s。     

A Marginal Additive Rates Model for Recurrent Event Data with a Terminal Event

Recurrent events data with a terminal event often arise in many longitudinal studies. Most of existing models assume multiplicative covariate effects and model the conditional recurrent event rate given survival. In this article, we propose a marginal additive rates model for recurrent events with a terminal event, and develop two procedures for estimating the model parameters. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. In addition, some numerical procedures are presented for model checking. The finite-sample behavior of the proposed methods is examined through simulation studies, and an application to a bladder cancer study is also illustrated.