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In this article a natural extension of the beta-binomial distribution is developed. Forced binary choice situations are modeled such that each individual has a probability p of knowing the correct answer. (This probability is distributed f(p) across the population.) Hence each individual will guess at the correct answer with probability 1 – p. The observable random variable R, the total number of correct answers (both by knowing and guessing) out of k trials has a rather complicated distribution. However, when f(p) is distributed beta with parameters m and n, the distribution P(r; k, m, n) can be expressed in terms of the well-known Gaussian hypergeometric function. This distribution has implications for true-false tests, taste tests, and virtually every other forced binary choice situation.     

A General Behavior Model and New Definitions of Organizational Cultures

Current definitions of organization/corporate cultures overemphasize long-run equilibrium and underplay short-run dynamics; they stress commonalities and overlook diversities, underscore emic analyses and lose sights of etic analyses, and separate the intangible from the tangible; plus are “model unfriendly.” As an alternative approach addressing these problems, we propose a new General Behavioral Model (GBM) and then derive two new definitions of OC that view organizational cultures as [1] accumulated choices and [2] interactions among critical masses of people. Theoretical characteristics and managerial implications are discussed.     

Pre-commitment and flexibility in a time decision experiment

An agent with dynamically inconsistent preferences may deviate from her plan of action as the future draws near. An exponential discounter may do exactly the same when facing an uncertain future. Through an experiment we compare preference-based vs. uncertainty-based explanations for choice reversal over time by eliciting choices for pre-commitment and flexibility. Evidence of widespread commitment favors a preference-based explanation.

农民工的就业与工资决定：教育与培训的重要性

在城市劳动力市场上,农村劳动力根据个人的人力资本积累状况和当地的劳动力市场条件,在成为自我经营者和工资收入者之间进行就业选择。简单的Mincer工资方程回归结果显示,工资收入者比自我经营者的教育回报率高出2个百分点左右。在矫正了样本选择偏差之后,拓展的Mincer工资方程对工资收入者的教育回报率估计结果在5.3%-6.8%之间。从培训角度看,简单培训、短期培训和正规培训对农民工再流动都有显著作用,但简单培训对农民工的工资收入作用不显著,而短期培训和正规培训则对其工资收入有着重要的决定作用。此外,工资拖欠等权益保护问题也对农村劳动力再流动有重要影响。在处理农民工的个人异质性和教育内生性问题时,本文还发现父母受教育年限不是一个理想工具变量。     

新旧之间:北大“三刊”与五四新文化运动

北大"三刊"是"五四"时期在中西文化思想跌宕中生发的社团刊物,它们在中国文化的转型时期发挥了重要的作用。然而,在现代文学史的叙述中对《国民》、《国故》的研究和评价存在明显的失语。无疑,"三刊"在办刊宗旨、文化选择、文学旨趣等方面存在着差异,但作为五四时期知识分子群体精神的一种表现形式,它们对新旧文化所采取的不同立场和选择,在文学创作中表现的不同个性和审美风格,正是建立在民族文化所形成的民族意识和力图重构民族文化的民族国家观念的基础上的。在刊物之间的张力中,展现出中国现代文学开创初期的复杂风貌和多元构成因素,因而对研究新旧文学共生共存的复杂历史是具有参照性和代表性的文化空间。     

作业成本法暂不宜采用──从成本方法的选择看作业成本法在我国的应用前景

通过对成本计算方法选择的讨论，认为，作业成本法在我国目前暂不宜采用和推广。原因如下：１、我国在相当一段时间内，尚不具备使用作业成本法的环境。２、作业成本法本身存在着许多未知因素。３、作业成本法在一些企业应用受到成本效益原则的限制。但文章并不否认作业成本法在我国企业未来的发展趋势，及当前采用其一些合理的方法，如改进制造费用的分配方法使成本计算趋向合理，采用作业管理的一些先进方法等。     

Social Work Student Interest in Nursing Home Employment: A North American Study

Nursing homes (NHs) are a primary setting for gerontological social work; yet, little is known about social workers' career interest relative to this setting. This article reports the findings of an online survey of social work students (177 US and 91 Canadian) that sought to identify personal characteristics and beliefs that influence NH employment intentions. Students who were enrolled in bachelors programs, lacked previous practice experience, and had already had a NH field placement or wanted this experience were more likely to express employment intent. The implications of these findings for social work education and research are discussed.     

Midwives’ experience of personal/professional risk when providing continuity of care to women who decline recommendations: A meta-synthesis of qualitative studies

ProblemWomen’s autonomous choices in pursuit of physiological childbirth are sometimes limited by the midwife’s willingness to support those choices, particularly when those choices are contrary to recommendations or outside of guidelines.BackgroundWomen’s reasons for making such choices have received some research attention, however there is a paucity of research examining this phenomenon from the perspective of caseloading midwives’ and their perception of personal/professional risk in such situations.AimTo synthesise qualitative research which includes the voices of midwives working in a continuity of carer model who perceive any kind of risk to themselves when caring for women who decline current established recommendations.MethodsSystematic literature search and meta-synthesis were carried out following a pre-determined search strategy. The search was executed in April 2021 and updated in July 2021. Studies were assessed for quality using JBI Critical Appraisal Checklist for Qualitative Research. Data extraction was assisted by JBI QARI Data Extraction Tool for Qualitative Research. GRADE-CERQual was applied to the findings.FindingsEight studies qualified for inclusion. Five main themes were synthesised as third order constructs and were incorporated into a line of argument: Women’s rights to bodily autonomy and choice in childbearing are violated, and their ability to access safe midwifery care in pursuit of physiological birth is restricted, when midwives practise within a maternity system which is adversarial towards midwives who provide the care which women require. Midwives who provide such care place themselves at risk of damaged reputation, collegial conflict, intimidating disciplinary processes, tensions of ‘being torn’, and a heavy psychological load. Despite these personal and professional risks, midwives who provide this care do so because it is the ethical and moral thing to do, because they recognise that women need them to, because it can be very rewarding, and because they are able to.ConclusionMaternity systems and colleagues can be key risk factors for caseloading midwives who facilitate women’s right to decline recommendations. These identified risks can make it unsustainable for midwives to continue providing woman-centred care and contribute to workforce attrition, reducing options/choices for women which paradoxically increases risk to women and babies.     

农村幼儿园设立与儿童入园选择

基于中国农村发展调查2016年和2019年的面板数据,采用Probit、线性概率模型（LPM）和二值选择随机效应模型（xtprobit）实证分析村幼儿园的设立现状及其影响因素,并进一步探究村内幼儿园设立状况对适龄儿童入园地点选择的影响。研究结果表明：（1）2016-2019年,设立幼儿园的村庄占比保持在30%,但同期村内3~6周岁儿童上幼儿园的比例从86%提高到91%。（2）适龄儿童数量越多,村内设立幼儿园的可能性越大,且该正向相关关系在高中及以上劳动力占比高、距离乡镇近、较富裕、平原地区的村庄更明显。（3）村内设立幼儿园能显著促进本村适龄儿童在村内上幼儿园,有力缓解了农村学龄前儿童入园远、成本高的问题,但家长对本村幼儿园的服务质量并不满意。据此提出以下建议：实现农村适龄儿童“幼有所育”需要根据适龄儿童数量因地制宜创新学前教育服务模式,尤其要加强对教育相对落后、偏远西部山区农村幼儿园的政策倾斜力度,并进一步加强家校合作,提升农村幼儿园质量,为我国经济社会可持续发展奠定人力资本基础。     

如何削弱网络口碑离散对购买意愿的负面影响: 口碑分布呈现方式的讨论

网络口碑离散反映了已有评论者有关产品态度褒贬不一的程度,这种不确定性风险的传达将对消费者的购买意愿带来负面影响。本文基于已有网络口碑离散归因选择模型结论,结合双系统理论补充了分析式系统对有关口碑离散积极归因选择的促进作用,运用元认知理论检验了我国现行主流网络平台典型的三种口碑分布呈现方式对有关口碑离散积极归因选择的调节作用。本文通过2个眼动实验,共计329名被试的实证分析发现:(1)分析式系统的激活可以有效促使消费者做出有关口碑离散积极的归因选择;(2)当口碑分布呈现方式为适度复杂时,分析式系统的激活将有利于消费者在有关口碑离散的综合判断归因中做出了积极的归因选择;但并不是所有能引起信息不流畅性感知的口碑分布呈现方式都能显著影响分析式系统激活与有关网络口碑离散的积极归因选择间的关系,当口碑分布呈现方式带来的认知负荷未满足消费者的认知需要(简单呈现方式)或者超过了消费者的承载上限(非常复杂呈现方式)时,分析式系统的激活均对有关网络口碑离散积极的归因选择无显著影响,最终无法起到削弱网络口碑离散负面影响的作用(3)即使在引入平均星级水平和产品属性的讨论后,上述研究结论仍成立。本文研究结论不仅补充了网络口碑离散负面影响的削弱机制及削弱策略,而且对营销者进行网络口碑管理提供了具体且可行的参考。