On Loss Distributions from Installment-Repaid Loans

The banks have been accumulating huge data bases for many years and are increasingly turning to statistics to provide insight into customer behaviour, among other things. Credit risk is an important issue and certain stochastic models have been developed in recent years to describe and predict loan default. Two of the major models currently used in the industry are considered here, and various ways of extending their application to the case where a loan is repaid in installments are explored. The aspect of interest is the probability distribution of the total loss due to repayment default at some time. Thus, the loss distribution is determined by the distribution of times to default, here regarded as a discrete-time survival distribution. In particular, the probabilities of large losses are to be assessed for insurance purposes.     

解决农民贷款难的问题的对策与思考

深化农村金融改革过程中阶段性、结构性矛盾是农民贷款难现象产生的原因之一.农村信用环境和农业生产的风险性问题是产生农民贷款难现象的社会因素.改善农村金融服务,强化农业保险制度,加快和推进农村金融机构及结构的功能定位和调整;发展民间金融机构是解决农民贷款难的主要措施.     

转轨国家社会信用环境研究:评述及概念甄别

国内外对转轨国家的社会信用环境研究存在不同,通过对国内外研究的评述,甄别了社会信用制度、社会信用体系和社会信用环境这三个常常被交叉使用的词。并通过概念的甄别,指出了国内外研究的对接点。     

Old Structures,New Relations: How Community Development Credit Unions Define Organizational Boundaries

Studies of organizational dynamics examine the manner in which an organization's immediate environment defines the rules and requirements to which individual organizations must conform in order to receive legitimacy and support (Scott, 1992:132). In this paper we consider the question of how an organization can achieve legitimacy and support without necessarily compromising its organizational forms or practices to isomorphic pressures. We frame the question in terms of the boundaries between organizations and their environments. Where the population ecology studies show the survival value of adopting known organizational forms and practices, and neoinstitutionalism addresses the need to display compliance with accepted forms, our case study demonstrates the possibility of removing an organization or set of organizations from the familiar interaction by naming it as a subfield of the organizational field, sharing the environment, but out of the way of predefined norms and practices.     

信用证欺诈例外研究

信用证欺诈例外是对传统的信用证独立性原则的突破。文章拟从信用证欺诈例外的确立及其界定,以及银行、法院、申请人在信用证欺诈中的法律职责等问题进行探讨,并提出完善信用证欺诈例外制度若干建议。     

关于河南省实施《中小企业促进法》的问题研究

河南省实施《中小企业促进法》中存在着政策滞后、中小企业发展专项资金不到位及创业辅导不足等问题,需要结合河南实际,从政策制定、管理体制、资金支持、信用体系建设等方面采取有效措施,以推进该地区中小企业的快速发展。     

中国P2P网络借贷信用风险的测量

分析中国P2P网络借贷信用风险的生成机理,借鉴商业银行典型个人信用风险测量理论基础与方法,构建基于涵盖借款人软信息的P2P网络借贷信用风险评级指标体系。通过向在银行从事信贷工作的专业人员发放调查问卷,确定具体指标,使用AHP(层次分析法)与DEMATEL(决策实验室法)相结合的方法综合确定指标体系权重,最后评级结果以百分制数值给出,并换算成具体的信用等级,有效解决了平台对借款人信用等级测量问题。     

Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case

In foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) free countries, the occurrence of an FMD outbreak is a rare event with potentially large economic losses. We explore the dynamic effects of an FMD outbreak on market variables and economic surplus taking into account the largely neglected issue of farm bankruptcy. Simulations are performed on a stylized agricultural economy, which is a net exporter before the outbreak. We find complex dynamic market effects when the farm credit market suffers from information imperfections leading to farm closure. Welfare effects are also dramatically altered. Domestic consumers may lose in the long run from an FMD outbreak because domestic supply contracts. On the other hand, farmers able to resist this event may ultimately gain. Our analysis also shows that these effects are not monotone, making any efficient policy response to this catastrophic event quite challenging.     

银行客户信用评估动态分类器集成选择模型

现实的银行客户信用评估数据常包含大量的缺失值,这在很大程度上影响了信用评估模型的性能.针对已有模型的不足,提出了面向缺失数据的动态分类器集成选择模型DCESM.该模型充分利用数据集中所包含的已知信息,在训练信用评估模型之前不需要事先对缺失数据进行预处理,从而减少了对数据缺失机制假设以及数据分布模型的依赖.从UCI数据库中选择两个银行信用卡业务信用评估数据集进行实证分析,结果表明,与4种常用的基于插补法的多分类器集成模型以及1种直接面向缺失数据建模的集成模型相比,DCESM模型能够取得更好的客户信用评估性能.     

基于金融CGE模型的中国绿色信贷政策短中长期影响分析

十二五将节能环保作为一大关键主题, 中国将更多地使用市场经济手段治理环境, 与命令-控制手段互为补充。绿色信贷政策是其中重要的金融政策。本文从绿色信贷政策中对"双高"行业实施惩罚性高利率这一市场化的利率政策入手, 利用中国2007年SAM表, 部分行业主要上市企业年报, 2006年及2007年资金流量表及金融年鉴数据, 建立一个加入金融系统的CGE(可计算一般均衡)模型, 刻画绿色信贷政策的传导路径, 定量测算政策在不同时期的系统性影响。结果发现绿色信贷政策能够较为有效地抑制目标行业的投资行为, 并在短期、中期内能减少造纸业、化工业产出。在长期, 目标行业投资、产出回升, 抵消绿色信贷对抑制目标行业产出的效果。