股价波动的本质特征是什么?——基于非线性动力学分析视角的研究

基于金融复杂性研究视角,采用非线性动力学分析方法,分析股市波动的本质特征与形成机制。结果表明股市波动具有显著的分形动力学特征与长期记忆效应;股票市场存在低维混沌,具有内生的不稳定性;股价行为有其内在的非线性动力学形成机制,揭示出金融市场的正反馈机制、投资者的异质性与相互影响是引发市场复杂行为的重要途径;提出了非线性金融理论的研究方向并阐明了对于金融实践的意义。     

企业合作复杂性与企业合作生态系统研究

简要回顾了组织生态的研究进展,认为不对称、自适应和管理困境这3个因素是引起企业合作复杂性的主要来源,并论述了制度生态因子、文化生态因子与技术生态因子对企业合作的影响,最后界定了企业合作生态系统的概念,并探讨了在企业合作生态系统中企业应该如何处理与其他个体的合作关系。     

实现网络结点编号和添加虚工序的一种计算机处理方法

本文介绍一种算法,可对工程管理网络图的各个结点进行编号,并实现虚工序的自动添加。文末给出了算法的时间复杂度分析。     

复杂性理论:透视学科建设问题的独特视角

把复杂性理论引入到教育学中,可以为许多教育问题提供独特的视角。高等学校的学科建设是一个学校核心竞争力的集中体现。学科建设不是一蹴而就的,它与一个学校办学特点和学校历史积淀息息相关。本文以复杂性理论为基础,来探讨学科建设过程中存在的问题,展示复杂性理论解决问题的独特方式。     

原语语篇类型对汉英口译任务复杂度的影响

译者在口译训练及实践中要处理不同语篇类型的语料。而不同语篇类型的口译任务复杂度也有差异，从而影响着译者口译输出的准确度和流利度。     

Measuring the complexity of generalized linear hierarchical models

Measuring a statistical model's complexity is important for model criticism and comparison. However, it is unclear how to do this for hierarchical models due to uncertainty about how to count the random effects. The authors develop a complexity measure for generalized linear hierarchical models based on linear model theory. They demonstrate the new measure for binomial and Poisson observables modeled using various hierarchical structures, including a longitudinal model and an areal‐data model having both spatial clustering and pure heterogeneity random effects. They compare their new measure to a Bayesian index of model complexity, the effective number p_D of parameters (Spiegelhalter, Best, Carlin & van der Linde 2002); the comparisons are made in the binomial and Poisson cases via simulation and two real data examples. The two measures are usually close, but differ markedly in some instances where p_D is arguably inappropriate. Finally, the authors show how the new measure can be used to approach the difficult task of specifying prior distributions for variance components, and in the process cast further doubt on the commonly‐used vague inverse gamma prior.     

Is subsidiarity a conditio sine qua non for sustainability?

This paper argues that subsidiarity is a condicio sine qua non for sustainability. Through the complexity paradigm, the paper provides a historical reconstruction of both concepts to the end of elucidating their interdependence. The main thesis is that subsidiarity to sustainability is what self-organisation is to emergence. The paper ends with a sketch of future global governance structures based on a subsidiarity where cities take the lead on sustainability.     

学科难度与专业劳动复杂程度模糊谱系的建构--以中国大学本科教育为例

本文综合运用心理学、哲学、经济学、教育学的成果,以中国大学本科教育为例,对劳动复杂程度的模糊度量问题进行了探讨.认为专业劳动的复杂度由专业学习难度决定,专业学习难度由其横断学科和经验知识含量决定,而这些含量由专家系统提供的主要课程设置来体现.并由此建立了专业学科难度模糊谱系和相应的专业劳动复杂度模糊谱系.     

Generating inclusive services for children,youth and families: A shift to using complex systems theory

Service systems for children and families have been shaped by standard approaches to knowledge-building, which reflect a reductionist approach and assume linearity and/or that individuals and experiences are normally distributed. Yet, these approaches may be inadequate for clients most at-risk, especially those who would be analytic ‘outliers’. A complexity lens focuses on the whole system and seeks to identify patterns, including the dynamic interactions between components of the system. Social work scholars have begun to apply complexity theory to social work research efforts, demonstrating the conceptual potential of incorporating this theoretical approach into social work theories and models such as the person-in-environment framework and the ecosystems perspective. Yet, frameworks informed by complexity theory may require ontological and epistemological shifts in thinking and new methodological approaches in order to fully embody a complexity approach. Complexity theory offers the opportunity to consider social work clients who are most at-risk, as it is better suited for power law distributions. We can, therefore, reconceptualize the most ‘at-risk’ clients as being in a state of transition, which is also the space of most creativity and possibility.