上海工业品市场状况及原因剖析

本文以统计资料说明了上海工业品近十多年来市场地位严重下降这一不容置疑的状况， 并从宏观（包括传统的经济制度、经济调节机制、经济运行机制、市场的竞争） 及微观（企业自身的观念、营销管理手段） 方面进行了详细的分析， 对于怎样促使上海工业品的重新崛起很有启示     

Identifying treatment effects using trimmed means when data are missing not at random

Patients often discontinue from a clinical trial because their health condition is not improving or they cannot tolerate the assigned treatment. Consequently, the observed clinical outcomes in the trial are likely better on average than if every patient had completed the trial. If these differences between trial completers and non-completers cannot be explained by the observed data, then the study outcomes are missing not at random (MNAR). One way to overcome this problem—the trimmed means approach for missing data due to study discontinuation—sets missing values as the worst observed outcome and then trims away a fraction of the distribution from each treatment arm before calculating differences in treatment efficacy (Permutt T, Li F. Trimmed means for symptom trials with dropouts. Pharm Stat. 2017;16(1):20–28). In this paper, we derive sufficient and necessary conditions for when this approach can identify the average population treatment effect. Simulation studies show the trimmed means approach's ability to effectively estimate treatment efficacy when data are MNAR and missingness due to study discontinuation is strongly associated with an unfavorable outcome, but trimmed means fail when data are missing at random. If the reasons for study discontinuation in a clinical trial are known, analysts can improve estimates with a combination of multiple imputation and the trimmed means approach when the assumptions of each hold. We compare the methodology to existing approaches using data from a clinical trial for chronic pain. An R package trim implements the method. When the assumptions are justifiable, using trimmed means can help identify treatment effects notwithstanding MNAR data.     

基于校园文化特性的大学生政治社会化实践途径探析——以华中农业大学为例

通过对大学生政治社会化现状的调查,发现大学生政治社会化发展主流良好,大部分大学生政治信仰坚定,政治责任感强,愿意融入政治生活,但也存在政治观念偏颇,信仰危机潜伏;政治参与热情不高,效能感不强;政治认知肤浅,评价功利化等问题,并分析了原因。提出了基于校园文化建设特性的大学生政治社会化的4条途径:加强校园文化建设的思想先进性,提升大学生政治社会化的导向功能;加强校园文化建设体系的开放性,促进大学生政治社会化的观念更新;加强校园文化建设内容的丰富性,优化大学生政治社会化的素质结构;加强校园文化建设功能的辐射性,明确大学生政治社会化的角色定位。     

风险社会背景下我国危险犯立法趋势研究

风险社会背景下,我国社会生活中出现了新的危害行为。与我国传统危险犯造成现实的、客观的危险不同,新危害行为仅造成潜在的危险,潜在的危险一旦转化为现实则将造成严重的危害后果。对此,我国现有危险犯立法无法应对。为加强社会控制、降低诉讼成本,我国立法应设立新的危险犯类型,只要实施特定的危害行为就既遂,尽管犯罪既遂时,危害行为仅造成侵害的潜在危险。新危险犯是独立的危险犯类型。     

梁实秋译莎的变通方法——以“民族文化符号”为例

梁实秋以"存真"原则为基础翻译《莎士比亚全集》,同时适当运用变通方法对莎剧的"民族意识化符号"、"民族声像化符号"、"民族社会化符号"、"民族地域化符号"以及"民族物质化符号"等"民族文化符号"进行不同程度的意译,主要体现在参照本土文化、发挥汉语优势、注重含蓄委婉、引起美好联想、介绍异域民俗等方面。以源语文化立场为基础,兼顾译入语文化传统,适当运用变通方法,这不仅使译文达到整体和谐的效果,而且体现了译者"中庸"的哲学视野。     

New Section on Social Statistics

The analysis of a general k-factor factorial experiment having unequal numbers of observations per cell is complex. For the special case of a 2 ^k experiment with unequal numbers of observations per cell, the method of unweighted means provides a simple vehicle for analysis that requires no matrix inversion and can be used with existing software programs for the analysis of balanced data. All numerator sums of squares for testing main effects and interactions are χ² with one degree of freedom. In addition, for tests having one degree of freedom in any factorial experiment, the method of unweighted means may be modified to yield exact tests.     

Structured Modeling for Post-Mortem Brain Tissue Data

Structured means have been used in studying possible covariate effects on responses, whereas patterned covariances deal with random effects, missing data, and differing study designs. In this article, we develop new multivariate models with patterned means and covariance matrices to deal with special structures of the post-mortem brain tissue data collected in the Conte Center for the Neuroscience of Mental Disorders at the University of Pittsburgh. We obtain maximum likelihood estimates via the method of scoring for these new structured models. One-iteration estimators from a consistent starting point are used to derive the asymptotic distributions. The model fitting algorithms, as well as the asymptotic distributions, are examined using simulated data, and are applied to data from post-mortem tissue studies in schizophrenia.     

Valid Resampling of Higher-Order Statistics Using the Linear Process Bootstrap and Autoregressive Sieve Bootstrap

We show that the linear process bootstrap (LPB) and the autoregressive sieve bootstrap (AR sieve) are, in general, not valid for statistics whose large-sample distribution depends on moments of order higher than two, irrespective of whether the data come from a linear time series or not. Inspired by the block-of-blocks bootstrap, we circumvent this non-validity by applying the LPB and AR sieve to suitably blocked data and not to the original data itself. In a simulation study, we compare the LPB, AR sieve, and moving block bootstrap applied directly and to blocked data.     

A fitted test for the behrens-fisher problem

In 1975, Lee and Gurland proposed a solution to the Behrens-Fisher problem. It had excellent control of size and power and was relatively simple to use. However it requires extensive special tables. This article proposes a modification of this approach. It replaces the tables with easily computed functions of the sample sizes and a standard t table. Control of size and power are equivalent to that obtained by Lee and Gurland. Furthermore, the test is also compared with the Welch's approximate t test and shows better control of size, with similar power curves when sample sizes are at least four from each of the two normal populations.