Modeling External Risks in Project Management

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.     

当前影响和制约中国电子商务进一步发展的几个问题

当前，影响和制约中国电子商务进一步发展的主要问题集中表现在“信用缺失”问题上，它导致人们对网上交易仍心存疑虑，物流配送滞后，商品流通不畅，企业计算机应用水平不高，高水平网络人才匮乏，与电子商务相关的法规体制不够健全。为此，中国电子商务必须建立诚信长效机制，加快物流配送体系建设，构筑有效的社会物流配送系统．加快推广电子商务知识，强化电子商务人才培养，健全与国际接轨的电子商务法律体系。     

构建高校学生心理健康教育长效机制的思考

大学生心理健康教育是高等学校学生思想政治教育工作的重要组成部分，构建高校学生心理健康教育的长效机制，是此项工作经常、有序、健康、高效开展的重要保证，其核心内容是建立目标体系和运行机制，从而实现该项工作的持续性和实效性目标。     

中国城市化与社会结构变迁

文章从社会学角度探讨了过去30年以来中国的城市化及其引发的社会结构变迁。文章指出，在过去30年中国的城市化经历了飞速的发展，进入了快速城市化阶段，离基本城市化阶段越来越近，但由于中国独特的城乡制度以及行政管理体制，中国城市化呈现两种模式——主动城市化模式和被动城市化模式，并呈现多种城市化主体，而政府和企业则是中国城市化的主导性主体。这背后最主要的动力机制还是制度和利益，彰显出中国社会结构变迁趋势：在利益机制驱使下，中国社会渐渐地形成了城乡差别不断扩大、城市内部分化明显的利益分配格局；由于缺乏公开、公正、民主的配置机制，各个城市化主体之间的博弈大多屈从于弱肉强食的“丛林法则”，从而导致各种暴力冲突、相互仇视的问题，这在一定程度上破坏了城市社会运行秩序特别是支撑这些秩序的信任机制，显现出相当严重的合法性危机，对未来中国的城市化提出了严峻的挑战。为此，文章提出了中国未来城市化的几种可能的路径。     

电子商务模式决策的支持模型设计

借助潜在需求这一概念提出决策分析框架,帮助决策者在决策制定的最初分析阶段排除那些与本企业环境和供应链条件不相容的电子商务模式;旨在为电子商务从业者和研究人员提供一个实施电子商务模式决策分析时的支持模型.     

水资源跨流域配置的经济学分析

由于我国水资源空间分布不均匀的突出特点 ,大型跨流域调水工程已经成为我国国民经济可持续发展的重要支撑。文章从水资源的经济特点出发 ,结合南水北调中线工程 ,对水资源跨流域配置的市场供求、成本收益等资源经济学问题进行了分析 ,并对社会主义市场经济条件下水资源跨流域配置的利益分配机制进行了探讨     

Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment: Information Tools for Community Adaptation to Changes in Climate or Land Use

To inform local and regional decisions about protecting short-term and long-term quality of life, the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) provides data and tools (for the northeastern United States) that can help decision makers understand how outcomes of their decisions could be affected by potential changes in both climate and land use. On an interactive, user-friendly website, CARA has amassed data on climate (historical records and future projections for seven global climate models), land cover, and socioeconomic and environmental variables, along with tools to help decision makers tailor the data for their own decision types and locations. CARA Advisory Council stakeholders help identify what information and tools stakeholders would find most useful and how to present these; they also provide in-depth feedback for subregion case studies. General lessons include: (1) decision makers want detailed local projections for periods short enough to account for extreme events, in contrast to the broader spatial and temporal observations and projections that are available or consistent at a regional level; (2) stakeholders will not use such a website unless it is visually appealing and easy to find the information they want; (3) some stakeholders need background while others want to go immediately to data, and some want maps while others want text or tables. This article also compares what has been learned across case studies of Cape May County, New Jersey, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and Hampton Roads, Virginia, relating specifically to sea-level rise. Lessons include: (1) groups can be affected differently by physical dangers compared with economic dangers; (2) decisions will differ according to decision makers' preferences about waiting and risk tolerance; (3) future scenarios and maps can help assess the impacts of dangers to emergency evacuation routes, homes, and infrastructure, and the natural environment; (4) residents' and decision makers' perceptions are affected by information about potential local impacts from global climate change.     

浅谈实行建设工程无标底招标利弊及建议

本文分析了无标底招标的特点和利弊,在肯定无标底招标的同时,建议不可盲目实行,提出加强法律、法规建设,规范建筑市场和参与各方的行为是解决问题的关键。     

委托代理理论与企业激励机制设计的重要性

传统激励理论从不同角度探索了如何加强和激发动机 ,并引导行为使之朝向预定目标 ,但对于为什么要设计激励机制却没有更多的研究和更深层次的揭示。本文从委托—代理理论来思考和分析企业激励机制设计的重要性 ,系统阐述了委托代理理论 ,并对企业设计激励机制的重要性进行论述     

科技兴市:佛山跨世纪的战略选择

作者运用理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法对佛山市经济发展的实践予以深刻剖视后指出:佛山市经济建设处在从物质投入主导型向科技进步主导塑转变的转折点上,在跨世纪的经济发展与经济竞争中,佛山市必须实行科技兴市的新发展战略,作者对佛山市科技兴市战略的涵义,目标,条件作了深入分析,并进而设计了科技兴市战略的运行机制和政策落点。