An approximate dual-self model and paradoxes of choice under risk

We derive a simplified version of the model of Fudenberg and Levine, 2006, Fudenberg and Levine, 2011 and show how this approximate model is useful in explaining choice under risk. We show that in the simple case of three outcomes, the model can generate indifference curves that “fan out” in the Marschak–Machina triangle, and thus can explain the well-known Allais and common ratio paradoxes that models such as prospect theory and regret theory are designed to capture. At the same time, our model is consistent with modern macroeconomic theory and evidence and generates predictions across a much wider set of domains than these models.     

An investigation of the endowment effect in the context of a college housing lottery

The endowment effect was examined in a two-part study in the context of a college housing lottery. Students who were awarded their first choice of residence hall were asked the lowest dollar amount they would be willing to accept (WTA) to give up their first choice hall whereas students who were denied their first choice were asked the highest dollar amount they would be willing to pay (WTP) to obtain their first choice. Results from the initial assessment showed the presence of the endowment effect regarding students’ valuation of their first choice residence hall immediately after the housing lottery (i.e., WTA price was significantly higher than WTP price). The follow-up surveyed participants from the initial assessment who responded when contacted a second time after they had experienced two months of life in the residence hall they were awarded in the lottery. Results from the follow-up showed that the endowment effect was still present after experiencing life in the residence hall. Moreover, further analyses revealed that the endowment effect was, in fact, enhanced after the living experience. These findings demonstrate that within the context of a housing lottery, a highly-valued commodity, long-term experiences substantially increase the magnitude of the endowment effect, even when controlling for other factors that have been shown to impact this effect.     

通过深化体制改革建立扩大内需的长效机制

我国内需不足的根本原因是深层次的体制问题,具体表现在不合理的收入分配体制,政府公共服务支出占政府总支出的比重较低,国有企业借助行政垄断地位挤压中小企业的生存空间．也增加了居民的生活成本,城乡一体化改革进展缓慢。必须通过深化经济体制改革,加快推进收入分配体制改革,加快公共财政体制建设,逐步完善基本公共服务体系,鼓励扩大民间投资,深化国有企业体制改革,加快推进城乡一体化改革。     

我国统一货币政策调控的区域效应非对称性分析

由于人民币升值的压力和我国国际收支的双顺差,外国资产迅速扩张,外汇占款成了我国基础货币的主要投放渠道。由于各区域的经济对外开放程度存在差异,统一的货币政策在不同区域的效应可能存在差异。通过对我国2004年第1季度至2011年第2季度央行统一的货币政策操作在不同区域的政策效应的非对称性进行了理论分析和实证检验,认为对东中西部应分别采用不同的货币政策。     

以规范求发展 以发展求规范——新时期高校学生社团的发展探析

党的十七届四中全会明确提出"坚持以执政能力建设和先进性建设为主线,保证党始终走在时代前列"。加强高校党建工作是事关高等教育改革与发展兴衰成败的大事,对于高等学校党组织的先进性建设,这也是社会主义大学的本质所决定的。在当前世情、国情、党情发生重大变化,尤其是当今国际金融危机、国际互联网等给高校党组织先进性建设带来深刻影响的形势下,高校党组织必须通过不断加强党员干部队伍的政德建设、优化选用干部人才的环境氛围、创新大党建的管理机制等措施,建立健全先进性建设的长效机制。     

社会主义法治理念在检察工作中的深化与拓展——以检察文化建设为视角

社会主义法治理念是检察文化建设的根本指针,检察文化是社会主义法治理念的有效载体,两者互为依存,相互促进。社会主义法治理念在检察工作中深化与拓展的最终归宿是:符合社会主义法治理念核心要求的检察文化的形成。社会主义法治理念在检察工作中深化与拓展的基本路径是通过检察文化建设实现司法理念从宏观层面向微观层面的转化,即打击犯罪与保障人权相统一、程序正义与实体正义相统一、协作与监督相统一、法律效果与社会效果相统一、案件数量与案件质量相统一。     

智库影响力的国际比较与走向判断

现代智库已经成为各国决策者处理各种社会复杂问题所倚重的重要力量。中国与西方国家智库因为所处的体制环境不同,在独立属性上呈现出本土化运作的特征。通过对中西方智库的独立性的比较、分析和考察,以我国特有的国情为发展的起点,借鉴西方发达国家智库发展的成功经验,找到一条适合我国本土体制和国情的独立性的发展路径,是今后提高我国智库决策影响力的重要价值选择,也是促进我国决策科学化和民主化的重要动力。     

基于复杂网络的电动汽车充电桩众筹市场信用风险建模与分析

因其经济优势及环境友好特性,电动汽车（EV）保有量持续攀升。而当前中国充电设施建设明显滞后于电动汽车的扩张速度,成为制约电动车发展潜力的主要瓶颈。由于充电设施具有高正外部性,同时投资回收期较长,难以吸引到传统融资,而基于互联网的众筹作为新型融资方式则受到了广泛关注。但由于缺乏强制性的信息披露制度及相关法律法规,众筹融资过程中的信息不对称问题相较传统融资方式更为严重,由此导致的高违约率也进一步削弱了投资者信心。本文利用复杂网络对电动汽车充电桩众筹融资市场进行建模,刻画了众筹投资者决策过程中的羊群效应,基于信息不对称使用多Agent模型对信用风险的产生、影响及针对性政策效果进行了模拟分析。结果表明,众筹投资者在决策过程中易受到社交网络中负面信息的影响,使得筹资人违约行为的不利影响进一步扩散。而严格的罚款机制可以在不影响融资市场均衡的情况下,使违约行为的恶性循环得到遏制。     

Education,cognitive ability,and cause-specific mortality: A structural approach

Education is negatively associated with most major causes of death. Prior work ignores the premise that cause-specific hazards are interdependent and that both education and mortality depend on cognitive ability. We analyse Swedish men aged 18–63, focusing on months lost due to specific causes—which solves the interdependence problem—and use a structural model that accounts for confounding due to cognitive ability. In a standard Cox model controlling for Intelligence Quotient, improving education is associated with large decreases in mortality for major causes of death. In the structural model, improving education is associated with a small decrease in months lost for most causes and education levels. Among the least educated, however, improving education strongly reduces the months lost, mainly those lost from external causes, such as accidents and suicide. Results suggest that conventional analysis of education and mortality may be biased, even if accounting for observed cognition.     

The effect of media sexism on women’s political ambition: evidence from a worldwide study

This paper presents results from one of the first global studies on the relationship between media sexism and the share of candidates for the lower chamber of national parliaments who are women. Data on media sexism come from the Global Media Monitoring Project, the most reliable worldwide source for media coverage from a gender perspective. The data on share of female political candidates come from the Inter-Parliamentary Union. The results show that that there is, even when controlling for the number of women in parliament, electoral system, gender quotas, level of human development, level of women’s rights, freedom from corruption, and media access, a significant relationship between media sexism—measured as (i) the share of all news subjects that are women and (ii) the share of all news subjects portrayed in the function of experts who are women—and the share of women candidates for parliament: the higher the level of media sexism, the lower the share of women candidates. The theory discussed zooms in on a bystander effect: We hypothesize that sexist portrayals of women in the media stifle ambition among women who, in a less sexist media environment, would be willing to stand as political candidates.