Bootstrapping Periodic State-Space Models

This article is concerned with how the bootstrap can be applied to study conditional forecast error distributions and construct prediction regions for future observations in periodic time-varying state-space models. We derive, first, an algorithm for assessing the precision of quasi-maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. As a result, the derived algorithm is exploited for numerically evaluating the conditional forecast accuracy of a periodic time series model expressed in state space form. We propose a method which requires the backward, or reverse-time, representation of the model for assessing conditional forecast errors. Finally, the small sample properties of the proposed procedures will be investigated by some simulation studies. Furthermore, we illustrate the results by applying the proposed method to a real time series.     

Improving water service to the urban poor through delegated management: Lessons from the city of Kisumu,Kenya

Partnerships like the delegated management model (DMM), in which a utility delegates management of infrastructure and service delivery to slum residents, are being promoted to improve services to the urban slums in sub‐Saharan Africa. However, there is little empirical evidence of the benefits that DMM offers beneficiaries and its potential limitations. This study, conducted in 2013, compared water service in two slums in the city of Kisumu in Kenya where DMM has been implemented with another where it has not been implemented. Results showed that DMM had lowered the cost of water compared to water kiosks in neighbourhoods in which DMM had not been implemented. The study findings contribute toward an evidence base for stakeholders and regulators who see an opportunity in the integration of DMM into local drinking water provision solutions in urban slums.     

明清以来雁北地区主要庙会综述

自二十世纪八十年代以来,各地民众开始大规模自发组织修庙并组织庙会活动。这种现象引起了学者们的兴趣,纷纷加以研究,并取得丰硕的成果。然而长期以来,对于雁北地区的庙会活动却无人问津,这对庙会研究来说不能不说是个遗憾。据现存的雁北地方志资料对该地的庙会作一概述,以期促进庙会研究的进一步深入。     

“地方”与“自然”——人文地理学视角下的刘亮程散文

自然存在于特定时空,自然书写因此被烙印上地域色彩,“地域”成为一种解读路径。人文地理学的“地方”理论强调地方体验的主观性和人地关系的复杂性,为重新观照文学作品的地域性提供方法。由此出发考察刘亮程的散文,从《一个人的村庄》到《在新疆》,从大漠深处的村庄黄沙梁到整片新疆大地,刘亮程的创作始终植根于特定的地理空间。生长于黄沙梁时,刘亮程处于地方内部,而当他走出此地,作为异乡人面对新疆的其他地方时,带着融入的渴望却感到旁观的隔膜。人地关系的变化牵动着刘亮程认知新疆大地时情感和思想的变化,最终促成刘亮程自然书写模式的转换。刘亮程的自然书写从日常生活经验的私人絮语变为为自然声张的生态代言,在黄沙梁自童年积累起来的人与自然的亲密情谊变为生态危机下的伦理责任,旧的自然书写模式式微,新的模式取而代之。     

Spillover Effects of Carbon Footprint Labelling on Less Developed Countries: The Example of the East Asia Summit Region

The spillover effects of carbon footprint (CFP) labelling are particularly significant in the East Asia Summit (EAS) region which has closely integrated production networks, wide development gaps and predominantly small and medium‐sized enterprises. Poor management of the effects would undermine not only the effectiveness of CFP labelling, but also EAS efforts towards economic integration and the narrowing of development gaps. Well‐designed labelling schemes, accessible and affordable data and transparent certification processes are essential, as well as capacity‐building and engagement of non‐labelling countries, in particular LDCs.     

Generalized empirical likelihood inference in partial linear regression model for longitudinal data

In this paper, empirical likelihood inference for longitudinal data within the framework of partial linear regression models are investigated. The proposed procedures take into consideration the correlation within groups without involving direct estimation of nuisance parameters in the correlation matrix. The empirical likelihood method is used to estimate the regression coefficients and the baseline function, and to construct confidence intervals. A nonparametric version of Wilk's theorem for the limiting distribution of the empirical likelihood ratio is derived. Compared with methods based on normal approximations, the empirical likelihood does not require consistent estimators for the asymptotic variance and bias. The finite sample behaviour of the proposed method is evaluated with simulation and illustrated with an AIDS clinical trial data set.     

湖南省与周边区域经济发展比较及对策研究

近年来 ,国家实施“西部大开发”战略对湖南省的地缘经济关系的影响十分显著 :与湖南经济关系互补型的地区减少了 ,而竞争型的地区有所增多。因此 ,湖南省必须抓住改革开放机遇 ,充分认识自身优势和弱点 ,把握在全国经济格局中的角色定位 ,加大对外开放的力度 ,多方招商引资 ,使本地区经济在全国经济竞争中迅速发展     

二元体制对城乡结合部城市化的影响及对策研究

目前 ,二元社会体制在我国城乡结合部地区并存 ,严重影响了城乡结合部地区的发展 ,如何消除城乡二元壁垒 ,推进城乡结合部地区的可持续发展 ,已成为城市化进程中城市管理必须解决的主要问题之一     

做好新时期民族地区高校学生稳定工作的初探

随着改革开放的不断深入和社会主义市场经济的进一步发展,人们的社会生活和思想观念发生了深刻变化,经济全球化、生活多样化、价值多元化、信息网络化、高等教育大众化等新情况、新观念不断冲击着大学校园。高校学生稳定工作是高校各项事业健康发展的重要保证。要确保高校教学、科研及学生的稳定,必须加强和改进高校学生的思想政治教育工作,依法治校,以德治校。     

Empirical likelihood inference for a semiparametric hazards regression model

ABSTRACT

We investigated the empirical likelihood inference approach under a general class of semiparametric hazards regression models with survival data subject to right-censoring. An empirical likelihood ratio for the full 2p regression parameters involved in the model is obtained. We showed that it converged weakly to a random variable which could be written as a weighted sum of 2p independent chi-squared variables with one degree of freedom. Using this, we could construct a confidence region for parameters. We also suggested an adjusted version for the preceding statistic, whose limit followed a standard chi-squared distribution with 2p degrees of freedom.