关于行政性收费的几点思考

行政性收费改革是我国税制改革的重要组成部分。了解行政收费的含义,对存在的行政收费进行分析,从而对行政收费进行改革,这对于解决当前税制改革有着很重要的意义。     

Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape

Summary.  A general class of statistical models for a univariate response variable is presented which we call the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). The model assumes independent observations of the response variable y given the parameters, the explanatory variables and the values of the random effects. The distribution for the response variable in the GAMLSS can be selected from a very general family of distributions including highly skew or kurtotic continuous and discrete distributions. The systematic part of the model is expanded to allow modelling not only of the mean (or location) but also of the other parameters of the distribution of y , as parametric and/or additive nonparametric (smooth) functions of explanatory variables and/or random-effects terms. Maximum (penalized) likelihood estimation is used to fit the (non)parametric models. A Newton–Raphson or Fisher scoring algorithm is used to maximize the (penalized) likelihood. The additive terms in the model are fitted by using a backfitting algorithm. Censored data are easily incorporated into the framework. Five data sets from different fields of application are analysed to emphasize the generality of the GAMLSS class of models.     

心灵的失落与追寻——简论汉末男性诗人的女性同构心理

汉末男性诗人以女性为情感载体来抒写自我生命痛苦的写作用意,应与他们的处境和心态密切相关。在混乱的政局中经历了期盼、失望、绝望的心路历程之后,他们的心态发生了很大变化,具有与女性心理同构的新特点。这恰恰彰显了汉末男性诗人摆脱心灵困境时的自我突围意识。     

改革开放——中华民族的复兴之路

建国以来，中国的发展以1978年为界分为前后两个30年。前30年，中国在计划经济体制下，顺利完成了国民经济的恢复任务、社会主义改造，并建立起比较完善的国民经济体系。后30年，中国通过改革开放，走上了一条中国特色社会主义发展道路，初步实现了国家的繁荣强盛，但是也面临着发展的困境。如果说，正是通过30年的改革开放，使中国真正跻身世界大国行列，那么中国在今后的发展中解决一系列发展难题，也必然要靠继续深化改革扩大开放。因此，认真总结中国改革开放的经验教训，为实现中华民族的伟大复兴就是我们必须要做的重要工作。     

中国传统文化中的"尚三"理念对巴金《家·春·秋》创作的影响

巴金自称是受外国文学影响最多的作家之一,但是中国传统文化对他的创作在无形中的影响恐怕连他自己都没有意识到,在巴金的小说尤其是在长篇小说《家.春.秋》创作中就处处可见"尚三"传统的影响,形成了几种独特的创作现象:三事话语,三复情节,三变情节,三极建构,三而后成,传统文化与外来文化的相互渗透融合,是巴金能够成为文学大师的文化基础。     

Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

道德需要与制度公正

道德需要是道德行为的原动力,在道德建设中具有重要的意义。而道德需要作为个体社会属性的一种应然存在,要转化为一种现实的道德力量,需要有良好的外部社会机制即公正合理的社会制度的保障。因此,要激发和提升个体的道德需要就必须加强制度建设,有效地发挥制度在个体道德需要方面的激励和导向功能。     

对培养学生英语自主学习能力的实践与思考

分析了由于长期的应试教育带来学生自主学习的能力较差的状况,结合英语教学实践,提出通过培养学生预习习惯,改变学生对学习英语的态度,引导和教会学生阅读技巧及方法,激发学生阅读兴趣,从而提高他们的阅读速度和阅读理解能力,促进自学能力的提高。     

Real nonparametric regression using complex wavelets

Summary.  Wavelet shrinkage is an effective nonparametric regression technique, especially when the underlying curve has irregular features such as spikes or discontinuities. The basic idea is simple: take the discrete wavelet transform of data consisting of a signal corrupted by noise; shrink or remove the wavelet coefficients to remove the noise; then invert the discrete wavelet transform to form an estimate of the true underlying curve. Various researchers have proposed increasingly sophisticated methods of doing this by using real-valued wavelets. Complex-valued wavelets exist but are rarely used. We propose two new complex-valued wavelet shrinkage techniques: one based on multiwavelet style shrinkage and the other using Bayesian methods. Extensive simulations show that our methods almost always give significantly more accurate estimates than methods based on real-valued wavelets. Further, our multiwavelet style shrinkage method is both simpler and dramatically faster than its competitors. To understand the excellent performance of this method we present a new risk bound on its hard thresholded coefficients.     

国有企业的特殊性与我国国有企业的布局定位

国有企业特殊性的真实内涵表现为,它有着特殊的所有者和所有者代表、特殊的社会目标、特殊的社会经济功能和特殊的产权组织运作机制。因此,越是在以社会目标为主的产业领域,国有企业就越有存在的价值。尽管国有企业的布局是一种趋向性和开放式的动态布局,但它所传递的信息表明国有企业会在特殊产业领域中以合适的方式继续存在并扮演重要角色。