Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

Policy analysis in a socioeconomic model of basic needs applied to four countries

This article summarizes the results of a socioeconomic model of basic needs that was applied to four countries—Brazil, Colombia, India, and Kenya. A modeling approach was thought necessary in order to make more precise the concept of basic needs. Although the work has not been entirely successful in doing that, from the policy experiment attempted, and given the limitations of the models used, we believe that an approach centered on the provision of basic needs will help the poorest satisfy their needs more quickly than is possible under alternative approaches.     

The social “R & D” paradigm in child and youth services: Building knowledge convivially

Adaptation of agricultural and industrial research and development models offers new methods for bridging the worlds of research and practice in child and youth services. Social R & D methodologies provide effective means for generating new social technologies because they are product oriented and use a wide array of traditional and nontraditional data sources. This article discusses one social R & D paradigm—Developmental Research and Utilization. Permanency planning and community support systems research are used to illustrate the past and potential application of this methodology to the field of child and youth services.     

Food security, consumption diversification and foreign exchange balances in Indonesia: Results from a multi-commodity simulation

Many countries adopt economic development strategies, within which an important element is the maintenance of low and stable food prices. In Indonesia, this is achieved principally through government subsidies to consumers of imported rice, the total cost of which fluctuates considerably from year to year, depending on world price movements and domestic production performance. Higher and possibly less stable domestic food prices appear inevitable in Indonesia, however, as the spectre of reduced oil revenues increases the government's concern with the cost of its food policy. Results from a stochastic simulation model of the agricultural sector show that the food price risk to which consumers and producers would be exposed in the absence of the stabilizing component of Indonesia's food policy would be considerable, rendering this component an unlikely area for significant change. A viable policy option appears to be the continuance of rice and wheat price stabilization, but with a graduated increase in the relative price of rice, reaching a total of 10% by 1985. Such a policy could result in net self-sufficiency in foreign exchange from staple food trade by 1990 and an improvement in aggregate economic surplus, although the expected decade improvement in food-energy consumption per capita would fall from 10% to 8%.     

Planning for permanency planning in foster care

The perceived severity of the problem of “drift” in the foster care system has encouraged agencies nationwide to accept permanency planning, but perhaps with limited attention to the planning process. This article examines the phenomenon of permanency planning from a planning perspective by focusing on: (a) definition of the permanency planning problem, (b) understanding of issues relevant to permanency planning (caseworker, program and systemic), (c) appreciation of the operational context (political, economic and social factors), and (d) evaluation of available options and possible consequences in developing or improving a permanency planning program. Permanency planning is not a simple, ready-made program applicable to any situation; it involves coordinated efforts by workers, service systems, and society in general, and requires time, commitment and resources. Successful planning for permanency planning can permit more children to grow up in homes providing continuity and stability.     

论国家紧急权及其合理运用的制度建构

由于我国新修订的宪法已经引入了"紧急状态"概念,因此如何构建国家紧急权制度体系,也就成为一个迫切需要解决的问题。从学理上看,国家紧急权是指国家在紧急状态下为了恢复正常的社会秩序而采取非常规的紧急对抗措施的权力。而从历史的经验教训看,国家紧急权决不是一项不受限制的权力,它的行使应当在明晰的法律范围进行,是宪政之限权目标的一部分。因此,国家紧急权制度的建构是非常重要的,它应坚持目的的合理性、手段的适当性、时间的有限性、启动的制约性等原则。     

陈淳哲学知行论研究

知行问题是理学尤其是朱子学研究的重要课题之一,讨论的问题涉及知行关系、致知与涵养、致知与主敬等方面。作为朱子重要门人和传人的陈淳,在知行关系上继承和发扬了朱熹“知行相须”的观点,提出了致知力行“随时更迭,交进互发”的思想,而对“知先行后”论有所修正,同时,对“行重于知”则以“以行为主,知行一事”作了新的概括和拓展。在主体修养上,陈淳把主敬仍看作是与致知力行相始终的修养的重要内容。陈淳还对凸现儒学工夫与境界的“下学上达”作出了新的探索。     

晚清狭邪小说的原型剖析

狭邪小说中蕴含有丰富的原型 ,它们或隐或显地制约着叙事。具体讲 ,仙人思凡原型建构起“犯戒受惩———凡间磨难———重返仙界”的叙事模式 ;凡人游仙模式则聚焦游仙过程的艰难 ,行为主体超越生死、勘破色相方能成仙。因果相报模式既成为组织情节、安排结构的依据 ,也是制约人物命运的要素 ,“善有善报 ,恶有恶报”成为人物命运的预置模式 ;它还成为增加叙事魅力的手段。乡下愚伯模式建构起“离开乡村到都市———流连都市———逃离都市回到乡村”的叙事模式 ,其价值在于表现都市文明与乡村文明的优劣。     

爱生之道：金庸小说的美学审视

虽然武侠小说离不开格杀打斗,但金庸小说却讲究生活情趣,反对残忍暴力。这使充溢着一种生命气息的金庸小说蕴有一种独特的审美品格。它来自于金庸作品里的"爱生性",通过这一原则,金庸小说成功地建构起了一种审美乌托邦。