群体性事件中的信息传播流程、节点与心理接受机制

群体性事件是转型期中国较为严重的社会问题,也是公民政治参与、权利救济的一种手段.在群体性事件的发生、发展、激化与平息的整个过程中,群体信息传播起着非常重要的作用,其传播流程大致经历"议论纷纷"的群体意识唤醒、"流言四起"的群体意识形成和"谣言惑众"的暴力行为发生三个阶段;在此期间,诸如暴力、权贵、女性等元素成为最能刺激群体、引起群众共鸣并激励民众参与的"信息节点",严重影响着事件的发展进程.群体心理的接受机制则表现为以正义感、成就感、自我替代为特征的主动参与动机,以成见与刻板印象为特征的群体意识心像和以焦虑、愤懑、激昂递进的情绪激化过程.     

Posterior Analysis for Normalized Random Measures with Independent Increments

Abstract.  One of the main research areas in Bayesian Nonparametrics is the proposal and study of priors which generalize the Dirichlet process. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive Bayesian non-parametric analysis of random probabilities which are obtained by normalizing random measures with independent increments (NRMI). Special cases of these priors have already shown to be useful for statistical applications such as mixture models and species sampling problems. However, in order to fully exploit these priors, the derivation of the posterior distribution of NRMIs is crucial: here we achieve this goal and, indeed, provide explicit and tractable expressions suitable for practical implementation. The posterior distribution of an NRMI turns out to be a mixture with respect to the distribution of a specific latent variable. The analysis is completed by the derivation of the corresponding predictive distributions and by a thorough investigation of the marginal structure. These results allow to derive a generalized Blackwell–MacQueen sampling scheme, which is then adapted to cover also mixture models driven by general NRMIs.     

Nonparametric and semiparametric estimation of the three way receiver operating characteristic surface

In many situations the diagnostic decision is not limited to a binary choice. Binary statistical tools such as receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC) need to be expanded to address three-category classification problem. Previous authors have suggest various ways to model the extension of AUC but not the ROC surface. Only simple parametric approaches are proposed for modeling the ROC measure under the assumption that test results all follow normal distributions. We study the estimation methods of three-dimensional ROC surfaces with nonparametric and semiparametric estimators. Asymptotical results are provided as a basis for statistical inference. Simulation studies are performed to assess the validity of our proposed methods in finite samples. We consider an Alzheimer's disease example from a clinical study in the US as an illustration. The nonparametric and semiparametric modelling approaches for the three way ROC analysis can be readily generalized to diagnostic problems with more than three classes.     

Nonparametric control charts based on runs and Wilcoxon-type rank-sum statistics

In this article, we introduce three new distribution-free Shewhart-type control charts that exploit run and Wilcoxon-type rank-sum statistics to detect possible shifts of a monitored process. Exact formulae for the alarm rate, the run length distribution, and the average run length (ARL) are all derived. A key advantage of these charts is that, due to their nonparametric nature, the false alarm rate (FAR) and in-control run length distribution is the same for all continuous process distributions. Tables are provided for the implementation of the charts for some typical FAR values. Furthermore, a numerical study carried out reveals that the new charts are quite flexible and efficient in detecting shifts to Lehmann-type out-of-control situations.     

艰辛的探索 光辉的历程——改革开放30年的回顾与前瞻

在改革开放30周年之际,回顾邓小平同志在改革开放关键阶段曾说过的三句话,话中所讲的四条路,即血路、死路、新路和好路,既是过去30年来艰辛探索的缩影,又是对未来美好前景的展望。     

“Which One Is Yours?”: Children and Ethnography

This paper explores roles that children play in ethnographic research. Based on the limited literature on children in the field, and drawing on examples from ethnographies across disciplines, I identify four roles for children: 1) as “wedges,” or as instrumentally important in helping adult ethnographers gain access in various ways; 2) as collaborators; 3) as objects of study; and 4) as subjects of study. I also discuss the ways in which these roles illuminate key methodological issues in ethnography, like reflexivity, ethics, and agency. The paper synthesizes and integrates previously disconnected research on the presence of children in the field with ethnographies in which children and childhood are the topics of research. I draw on my own fieldwork experiences for further illustration.

发达市场地区中小企业融资渠道借鉴

2009年爆发经济危机以来,全球失业率大幅增长,中小企业在提供就业机会、复苏经济方面发挥着不可小觑的作用。中小企业的发展是世界焦点,融资缺口更是全球亟待解决的难题。通过比较发达和发展中国家的融资历史,解析了发达国家地区中小企业融资的渠道类型,为解决中国中小企业融资难题提出了一点建议。     

Critically assessing digital documents: materiality and the interpretative role of software

As a contribution to the ongoing tradition of critically assessing documents for research, this paper aims to highlight materiality as a key factor in the co-shaping of knowledge derived from digital documents. The paper first builds upon prior debates in document studies with work from the fields of Science and Technology Studies, and Communication Studies, to establish the role of document materiality in the interpretative process. By first establishing digital documents’ material reality as electrical signal, the paper then discusses the interpretative role of software, in both the representation of that signal for human interpretation and the production of the document through software tools. Finally, the paper considers the implications for persistence and access to digital documents posed by their material reality and the private archival contexts in which they often reside.