低碳视角下农业生态补偿的激励有效性

运用多任务委托代理理论模型,从低碳视角分析了农业生态补偿契约中的激励关系,进而采用调研获取的微观农户数据对这一关系进行了实证检验。研究发现：政府主导的低碳农业生态补偿机制呈现出弱激励特性,主要原因在于农户进行低碳生产努力的经济价值未能显化,以及现行生态补偿机制所呈现的刚性特征。通过运用农业碳计量模型核算碳产品产量后发现,并非所有农业项目的经营都实现了碳汇量盈余,部分农户在低碳农业生产过程中出现了“搭便车”的现象,如此长期来看,农户逆向选择风险较大;因子得分结果显示农户在碳产品生产任务上的努力程度不高,代理人农户以低碳为目标的生产性努力缺乏有效激励,进而导致农户低碳生产态度与低碳生产行为发生了背离;农户低碳生产意识、态度、行为是农户低碳生产努力程度的显著影响因素,以低碳生产态度影响的重要程度最高。实现农业净碳汇效益经济价值的显化、提升农户低碳生产的积极性是强化农业生态补偿机制激励有效性的两条重要措施。     

论改革开放的世界社会主义意蕴

挖掘改革开放的世界社会主义意蕴,对于提升改革开放的自觉、自信与把握世界社会主义的前途命运具有重要意义。改革开放不仅开创了中国特色社会主义,而且为世界社会主义的理论发展、实践推进与制度文明提供了经验借鉴。首先,改革开放是对人类解放的当代诠释,凝聚了世界社会主义的价值共识与实践旨归;其次,改革开放开创了“命运共同体的社会主义”新形态,为世界社会主义迈向“真正的共同体”铺就了可行进路;再次,改革开放彰扬了马克思主义的正义逻辑,为全球正义的社会主义道路的构建奠定了基础;最后,改革开放是对人类文明的新拓展,有效地释放了世界社会主义的新文明属性,引领着世界社会主义文明的时代趋向。     

新媒体背景下公众参与生态文明建设的路径

党的十八、十九大均指出,生态文明建设功在当代、利在千秋。十九大进一步明确提出要构建“政府主导、社会协同、公众参与、法治保障”的生态文明建设新局面。《环境保护公众参与办法》的出台为公众参与环境保护提供了强有力的制度保障,但公众的参与程度与许多因素有关。在积极发动和鼓励公众参与生态文明建设的过程中,政府可发挥新媒体协商平台的作用,提高新媒体的回应能力,为公众参与生态文明建设提供保障;公众应借助新媒体互动平台的功能,进一步提升生态意识,践行生态行为,自觉维护生态环境;环保组织要发挥新媒体的聚焦作用,推动环保组织的成长壮大。     

绿水青山就是金山银山——习近平生态文明建设思想的哲学依据

建设美丽中国、实现中华民族永续发展、建设具有中国特色社会主义,必须抓好生态文明建设。习近平生态文明建设思想以马克思辩证唯物主义原理和我国传统的儒家、道家文化根基中的生存智慧作为哲学依据,是顺应时代要求的新论断。这个思想有着生态自然观与生态经济观相统一、规律性与目的性相统一、继承性与创新性相统一、科学性与实践性相统一的思想特点。有此思想指导,我国全面建成小康社会、夺取新时代中国特色社会主义的伟大胜利、实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦必然指日可待。     

长江经济带生态效率时空格局演化及影响因素研究

文章基于108个城市2004-2014年市级面板数据测度了长江经济带城市生态效率的时空演变格局,综合而言,长江经济带生态效率水平呈现出波动上升态势,长江流域城市生态效率分化特征明显,湖南、湖北和四川等长江上游城市生态效率较高,长江上、中、下游地区城市生态效率依次递减.对生态效率的影响因素研究表明,科技创新显著地提高了长江经济带的生态效率,经济快速增长降低了城市生态效率,意味着转变经济增长方式、加快科技创新是提高城市生态效率的有效途径.研究还发现,产业结构偏离度有利于提高城市生态效率,而产业升级抑制了城市生态效率的增长,意味着产业升级并不是提高城市生态效率的捷径.     

The Chinese Road in the Light of Historical Continuity

The Chinese road has deep historical roots. Its most striking feature is that it is marked by historical continuity rather than rupture, and the main force behind this continuity is its intrinsic dynamism and vitality. Unlike the paradigm of Eurocentrism or “Discovering History in China,” the comparative analytical paradigm discovers China through long-term comparisons with corresponding countries in the same time and space in an effort to find positive elements in the history of the Chinese road and to refute the long prevalent theory of Chinese stagnation. Seen over the course of world history, the impetus for the creation of the world’s most brilliant agrarian civilization was endogenous. This impetus was not a momentary “explosive force” but a sustainable institutional drive whose main constituents were the independent farming household, endogenous government capacity and adaptive national governance. In addition to the main theme of “permanent change,” Chinese development had a secondary theme of “cyclical change” which cannot be ignored. The roots of Chinese development are buried deep in the genes of this agrarian nation in the form of sticky institutions, bureaucratic inertia, arbitrary power, etc. Historical continuity provided a foundation for China’s creative revolution and development in modern times, ultimately laying down a socialist development road with Chinese characteristics, although this remains an unfinished relay process.     

生态学马克思主义对西方环境主义的批判和启示

西方环境主义认为人类在地球上的频繁活动将导致地球整个生态系统的破坏，要想解决环境问题就必须限制人类活动，缩小经济发展规模，避免人口过剩；而生态学马克思主义则指出，生态危机产生的根源是由于资本主义私有制的存在，环境污染和人口过剩是资本主义剥削自然和剥削人类的结果，只有建立生态社会主义社会，绿色环境主义者和马克思主义者的可持续发展理想才能实现。     

Analysis of Regional Scale Risk of Whirling Disease in Populations of Colorado and Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Using a Bayesian Belief Network Model

Introduction and spread of the parasite Myxobolus cerebralis, the causative agent of whirling disease, has contributed to the collapse of wild trout populations throughout the intermountain west. Of concern is the risk the disease may have on conservation and recovery of native cutthroat trout. We employed a Bayesian belief network to assess probability of whirling disease in Colorado River and Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus and Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis, respectively) within their current ranges in the southwest United States. Available habitat (as defined by gradient and elevation) for intermediate oligochaete worm host, Tubifex tubifex, exerted the greatest influence on the likelihood of infection, yet prevalence of stream barriers also affected the risk outcome. Management areas that had the highest likelihood of infected Colorado River cutthroat trout were in the eastern portion of their range, although the probability of infection was highest for populations in the southern, San Juan subbasin. Rio Grande cutthroat trout had a relatively low likelihood of infection, with populations in the southernmost Pecos management area predicted to be at greatest risk. The Bayesian risk assessment model predicted the likelihood of whirling disease infection from its principal transmission vector, fish movement, and suggested that barriers may be effective in reducing risk of exposure to native trout populations. Data gaps, especially with regard to location of spawning, highlighted the importance in developing monitoring plans that support future risk assessments and adaptive management for subspecies of cutthroat trout.     

基于循环经济理论的产业集群生态化发展评价研究

引入循环经济理念,建立科学评价产业集群生态化发展的体系和方法,对引导产业集群合理有序的发展具有十分重要的意义。从经济效益、环境效益和社会绩效三个方面着手,构建符合循环经济特征的产业集群生态化发展评价指标体系,计算出各指标的评价值及其在评价体系中的权重以后,采用线性加权求和法求得产业集群生态化发展的综合评分值,既可对产业集群某一时期生态化发展水平及三个维度间的关系作出客观的评价,找到存在的问题和差距。     

Discovering hidden statistical issues through individual-level models in ecological studies

ABSTRACT

In ecological studies, individual inference is made based on results from ecological models. Interpretation of the results requires caution since ecological analysis on group level may not hold in the individual level within the groups, leading to ecological fallacy. Using an ecological regression example for analyzing voting behaviors, we highlight that the explicit use of individual-level models is crucial in understanding the results of ecological studies. In particular, we clarify three relevant statistical issues for each individual-level models: assessment of the uncertainty of parameter estimates obtained from a wrong model, the use of shrinkage estimation method for simultaneous estimation of many parameters, and the necessity of sensitivity analysis rather than adhering to one seemingly most compelling assumption.