生态学马克思主义对西方环境主义的批判和启示

西方环境主义认为人类在地球上的频繁活动将导致地球整个生态系统的破坏，要想解决环境问题就必须限制人类活动，缩小经济发展规模，避免人口过剩；而生态学马克思主义则指出，生态危机产生的根源是由于资本主义私有制的存在，环境污染和人口过剩是资本主义剥削自然和剥削人类的结果，只有建立生态社会主义社会，绿色环境主义者和马克思主义者的可持续发展理想才能实现。     

Analysis of Regional Scale Risk of Whirling Disease in Populations of Colorado and Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Using a Bayesian Belief Network Model

Introduction and spread of the parasite Myxobolus cerebralis, the causative agent of whirling disease, has contributed to the collapse of wild trout populations throughout the intermountain west. Of concern is the risk the disease may have on conservation and recovery of native cutthroat trout. We employed a Bayesian belief network to assess probability of whirling disease in Colorado River and Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus and Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis, respectively) within their current ranges in the southwest United States. Available habitat (as defined by gradient and elevation) for intermediate oligochaete worm host, Tubifex tubifex, exerted the greatest influence on the likelihood of infection, yet prevalence of stream barriers also affected the risk outcome. Management areas that had the highest likelihood of infected Colorado River cutthroat trout were in the eastern portion of their range, although the probability of infection was highest for populations in the southern, San Juan subbasin. Rio Grande cutthroat trout had a relatively low likelihood of infection, with populations in the southernmost Pecos management area predicted to be at greatest risk. The Bayesian risk assessment model predicted the likelihood of whirling disease infection from its principal transmission vector, fish movement, and suggested that barriers may be effective in reducing risk of exposure to native trout populations. Data gaps, especially with regard to location of spawning, highlighted the importance in developing monitoring plans that support future risk assessments and adaptive management for subspecies of cutthroat trout.     

基于循环经济理论的产业集群生态化发展评价研究

引入循环经济理念,建立科学评价产业集群生态化发展的体系和方法,对引导产业集群合理有序的发展具有十分重要的意义。从经济效益、环境效益和社会绩效三个方面着手,构建符合循环经济特征的产业集群生态化发展评价指标体系,计算出各指标的评价值及其在评价体系中的权重以后,采用线性加权求和法求得产业集群生态化发展的综合评分值,既可对产业集群某一时期生态化发展水平及三个维度间的关系作出客观的评价,找到存在的问题和差距。     

Discovering hidden statistical issues through individual-level models in ecological studies

ABSTRACT

In ecological studies, individual inference is made based on results from ecological models. Interpretation of the results requires caution since ecological analysis on group level may not hold in the individual level within the groups, leading to ecological fallacy. Using an ecological regression example for analyzing voting behaviors, we highlight that the explicit use of individual-level models is crucial in understanding the results of ecological studies. In particular, we clarify three relevant statistical issues for each individual-level models: assessment of the uncertainty of parameter estimates obtained from a wrong model, the use of shrinkage estimation method for simultaneous estimation of many parameters, and the necessity of sensitivity analysis rather than adhering to one seemingly most compelling assumption.     

地铁对城市现代化的影响

地铁是城市发展现代化的一个重要标志。本文分析了国内外城市地铁的构建、运营以及地铁在城市化进程中的作用，进而系统阐释了地铁对广州城市发展、社会生活及生态环境的影响和意义。     

公民教育：现代思想政治教育的新思路

在现代化进程中,随着公民教育的产生与思想政治教育的转型,加强公民教育成为社会主义民主政治建设的一项基础工程,是现代政治民主化和现代思想政治教育发展的内在必然,也是科学发展观的根本要求。公民教育契合了现代思想政治教育的核心价值,是现代思想政治教育理念创新、内容拓展、功能优化的新思路。     

C330. The variability of evaluations of speculative ideas

This article reports results of an extensive simulation study which investigated the performances of some commonly used methods of estimating error rates in discriminant analysis. Earlier research papers limited their comparisons of these methods to independent training data. This study allows for a simple auto-regressive dependence among the training data. The results suggest that the estimation methods based on the normal distribution perform adequately well under conditions of negative or mild positive correlation in the data, and small dimensions (p) of the observation vectors. For large p or strong positive correlation structures the conclusion is that one of the better non-parametric methods should be used. Special circumstances and conditions which notably affect the relative performances of the methods are identified.     

论广州城市生活垃圾治理的战略取向

现代城市垃圾治理是一项复杂的系统工程。在城市垃圾中,生活垃圾所占比重大、与民众联系密切且处理阻力大,对城市生活垃圾治理的战略设计已成为城市管理者面临的最大难题之一。作为我国重要中心城市的广州,也正面临形势严峻的"垃圾围城"之困,自2012年开启新一轮城市生活垃圾综合治理以来,在有创新、有收获的同时也遇到了新的挑战。为进一步深化城市生活垃圾治理工作,广州应准确把脉顶层制度难"落地"、流程运行难系统、民众习惯难转变等现实症结,科学设计生活垃圾的多元共治路径,实现挑战与机遇的对接,为我国城市生活垃圾的治理树立标杆,助推开创城市垃圾治理的新局面。     

阜新创建资源枯竭转型示范市生态建设的哲学思考

针对阜新市创建资源枯竭转型示范市过程中不能忽视生态建设这一现实问题,采用理论分析与现实结合的方法,论述了阜新市创建示范市生态建设的哲学依据、现实基础和建设措施,表明生态建设要以生态伦理学为哲学依托对阜新创建示范市有现实意义。     

论《墨子》经济思想中的生态因子及对当代的启迪

墨家的经济思想蕴涵着丰富的生态因子,这一点在其生产观、消费观、赋税观及分配观中这几个领域得到了充分的体现.墨家的这种思想给身处生态困境中的当代人类以深刻的启迪.