Variance bounds for estimators in autoregressive models with constraints

We consider nonlinear and heteroscedastic autoregressive models whose residuals are martingale increments with conditional distributions that fulfil certain constraints. We treat two classes of constraints: residuals depending on the past through some function of the past observations only, and residuals that are invariant under some finite group of transformations. We determine the efficient influence function for estimators of the autoregressive parameter in such models, calculate variance bounds, discuss information gains, and suggest how to construct efficient estimators. Without constraints, efficient estimators can be given by weighted least squares estimators. With the constraints considered here, efficient estimators are obtained differently, as one-step improvements of some initial estimator, similarly as in autoregressive models with independent increments.     

Solution to the hazard function of some two-stage carcinogenesis models when normal cell growth is piecewise linear

A closed form expression is obtained for the hazard function for three stochastic two-stage carcinogenesis models, when the normal cell growth is assumed to be piecewise linear.     

ON SOME OPTIMALITY PROPERTIES OF FISHER-RAO SCORE FUNCTION IN TESTING AND ESTIMATION

The score function is associated with some optimality features in statistical inference. This review article looks on the central role of the score in testing and estimation. The maximization of the power in testing and the quest for efficiency in estimation lead to score as a guiding principle. In hypothesis testing, the locally most powerful test statistic is the score test or a transformation of it. In estimation, the optimal estimating function is the score. The same link can be made in the case of nuisance parameters: the optimal test function should have maximum correlation with the score of the parameter of primary interest. We complement this result by showing that the same criterion should be satisfied in the estimation problem as well.     

Some results on renewal equations

In this paper solutions of renewal-type integral equations are studied. It is proved that a recursively spades;efined approximation to the solution has some nice convergence properties. Some simple bounds and other results on the renewal function and the renewal spades;,ensity are obtained.     

Bayesian classification with multivariate autoregressive sources that might have different orders

The main objective of this paper is to develop an exact Bayesian technique that can be used to assign a multivariate time series realization to one of several autoregressive sources, with unknown coefficients and precision, that might have different orders. The foundation of the proposed technique is to develop the posterior mass function of a classification vector, in an easy form, using the conditional likelihood function. A multivariate time series realization is assigned to the multivariate autoregressive source with the largest posterior probability. A simulation study, with uniform prior mass function, is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed technique and to test its adequacy in handling the multivariate classification problems. The analysis of the numerical results supports the adequacy of the proposed technique in solving the classification problems with multivariate autoregressive sources.     

On the moment generating functions for integer valued random variables

Abstract

In this note, we give explicit expressions of moment generating functions for integer valued random variables in both univariate and multivariate cases, which extend the results obtained by Nadarajah and Mitov [Communications in Statistics–Theory and Methods, 32, 2003, 47–60] and more recently by Chakraborti, Jardim and Epprecht [The American Statistician, 2017], Kwong and Nadarajah [Communications in Statistics–Theory and Methods, 2017]. Some examples are also discussed.     

Statistical Analysis of Coins Lost in Circulation

The loss rate of coins in the Israeli pound (IL) series issued in Israel in 1960–1979 is estimated, and the connection between it and the characteristics of the coins is examined. A lifetime model with time-dependent hazard rate and an estimation procedure for the model parameters are presented. The estimates are then used to forecast the number of coins surviving in circulation and the median lifetime of different denominations. The data are random samples drawn from the coins in circulation at a point in time, the sampled coins being sorted by date of issue.     

Improved likelihood-based inference for the stationary AR(2) model

An improved likelihood-based method based on Fraser et al. (1999) is proposed in this paper to test the significance of the second lag of the stationary AR(2) model. Compared with the test proposed by Fan and Yao (2003) and the signed log-likelihood ratio test, the proposed method has remarkable accuracy. Simulation studies are performed to illustrate the accuracy of the proposed method. Application of the proposed method on historical data is presented to demonstrate the implementation of this method. Furthermore, the method can be extended to the general AR(p) model.     

盐岩在库车拗陷中的作用

库车拗陷的勘探实践表明，盐层与油气密切相关。通过对2条地震测线的分析发现，盐层、盐上地层、盐下地层变形看似孤立，实际相互影响。盐层构造变形一般发育在古隆起上部，盐上构造变形主要发生在盐枕构造的翼部，无盐地区主要发育基底卷入式构造。膏盐层可以延缓盐下地层烃源岩的热演化程度，可以改善盐下储层的储集性能；膏盐层本身也有可能成为油气储集层；膏盐层具有形成超压封闭和物性封闭的双重封闭机制，对盐下油气藏的保存极为有利；膏盐层的塑性流动特性，使得盐下构造圈闭在强烈的构造挤压中得以保存。     

Testing the equality of several covariance matrices

Using a new approach based on Meijer G-functions and computer simulation, we numerically compute the exact null distribution of the modified-likelihood ratio statistic used to test the hypothesis that several covariances matrices of normal distributions are equal. Small samples of different sizes are considered, and for the case of two matrices, we introduce a new test based on determinants, with the null distribution of its criterion also fully computable. Comparisons with published results show the accuracy of our approach, which is proved to be more flexible and adaptable to different cases.