Timing Effects on Divorce: 20th Century Experience in the United States

Period divorce measures can misrepresent the underlying behavior of birth cohorts as changes in cohort timing produce changes in period probabilities of divorce. Building on methods used to adjust period fertility and marriage measures, we adjust U.S. period divorce rates for timing effects, calculating a timing index for every year between 1910 and 2000. The adjusted probability of divorce, PMED*, increases nearly linearly from 1910 through 1990, remaining at about that level through 2000. Period measures greatly exaggerate divorce risks from the early 1970s to the mid‐1980s, but understate them at other times. Adjusted values for recent years do not suggest a decline in the likelihood of divorce, with year 2000 values indicating a divorce probability of 0.43 – 0.46.     

我国封闭式基金绩效评价的研究与分析

随着基金的高速扩容,产品不断创新,基金管理公司之间的业绩也逐渐拉开了差距,对我国封闭式基金的绩效进行客观的评价,分析基金管理人的选股选时能力,实证结果认为,经过风险调整后,我国封闭式基金的业绩能够优于市场基准组合;这主要归结于正的证券选择能力;不同规模的基金业绩表现有所不同。     

The Role of Cohabitation in Remarriage

Using 3 subsamples of remarried respondents (n =1,583, 971, and 926) in the first wave of the National Survey of Families and Households, this study investigates how different types of cohabitation, especially postdivorce cohabitation, affect the timing and quality of remarriage in the United States. Ordinary Least Squares regression analysis indicates that postdivorce cohabitation in general and postdivorce cohabitation with multiple partners in particular delay remarriage. Furthermore, echoing previous research findings on the relationship between premarital cohabitation and relationship quality, the ordered logistic analysis shows that postdivorce cohabitation with a spouse is associated with lower levels of remarital happiness, and postdivorce cohabitation of all types tends to be associated with higher levels of remarital instability. Implications of these findings are briefly discussed.     

《庄子》记时词语考察

《庄子》中的记时词语数量多，词义丰富，用法灵活，是《庄子》词汇系统富有特色的组成部分。对其进行穷尽性统计和比较研究，有助于人们认识《庄子》词汇系统和先秦记时词语状况，同时也有利于推进先秦专书词汇和时间范畴研究。     

Marital Quality Ten Years After the Transition to Parenthood: Implications of the Timing of Parenthood and the Division of Housework

Using a sample of 180 dual‐earner, nondivorced couples, this study explored how the timing of parenthood and the division of housework are related to husbands' and wives' marital quality during the childrearing years. Hypothesized to be “at risk” for negative marital evaluations were early first‐birth couples who divided tasks in a less‐traditional manner and delayed first‐birth couples who divided tasks in a traditional manner. Analyses revealed that husbands and wives in the “risk” groups evaluated their marriages more negatively, suggesting that congruence between behaviors, background, and attitudes is important for marital quality. In addition, early first‐birth couples evaluated their marriages more poorly than did the “on time” or “delayed” couples. Wives' gender‐typed attitudes emerged as a significant covariate in the analyses but did not account for the effects of the timing of parenthood and the timing of parenthood × the division of housework interactions.     

Predicting the Daily Covariance Matrix for S&P 100 Stocks Using Intraday Data—But Which Frequency to Use?

This article investigates the merits of high-frequency intraday data when forming mean-variance efficient stock portfolios with daily rebalancing from the individual constituents of the S&P 100 index. We focus on the issue of determining the optimal sampling frequency as judged by the performance of these portfolios. The optimal sampling frequency ranges between 30 and 65 minutes, considerably lower than the popular five-minute frequency, which typically is motivated by the aim of striking a balance between the variance and bias in covariance matrix estimates due to market microstructure effects such as non-synchronous trading and bid-ask bounce. Bias-correction procedures, based on combining low-frequency and high-frequency covariance matrix estimates and on the addition of leads and lags do not substantially affect the optimal sampling frequency or the portfolio performance. Our findings are also robust to the presence of transaction costs and to the portfolio rebalancing frequency.     

对中国物流业市场结构的判断与分析

本文在明确物流业的基础上,运用产业经济学相关理论、物流相关数据,判断出中国物流业尚处于原子型市场结构,并分析机遇与挑战.综合来看,物流发展滞后、第三方物流企业竞争力较弱、体制约束及入世成为中国物流业发展所讨论的重点,充分利用资源与优势、逐步实现物流的变革是动力.     

The Timing of Divorce: Predicting When a Couple Will Divorce Over a 14‐Year Period

This paper investigates the predictability of divorce in a long‐term, prospective longitudinal study. Past research has indicated that 2 periods can be considered the most critical for the survival of marriages: (a) the first 7 years of marriage, during which half of all divorces are known to occur, and (b) the period during which the first child reaches 14 years of age, which has been suggested as a low point for marital satisfaction in the life course. In the present study, interaction variables at Time 1 (both during conflict and in an events‐of‐the‐day discussion following separation of the spouses for at least 8 hours) and noninteractive variables were used to predict divorcing both early and later in the marriage. A different set of variables predicted early divorcing than predicted later divorcing. Negative affect during conflict predicted early divorcing, but it did not predict later divorcing. By contrast, the lack of positive affect in events‐of‐the‐day and conflict discussions predicted later divorcing, but it did not predict early divorcing. Prediction was possible over the 14‐year period of the study with a model that included marital satisfaction, thoughts of marital dissolution, and affective interaction in both conversations. The model predicted divorce with 93% accuracy.     

Variation in breeding parameters of the Australian magpie Gymnorhina tibicen in suburban and rural environments

The breeding ecology of the Australian magpie Gymnorhina tibicen in suburban and rural areas was compared as part of a study into the synanthropy of the species in southeast Queensland, Australia. During the two years of the study suburban magpies were found to have significantly advanced breeding dates compared to rural magpies. Suburban magpies typically re-nested when an initial nest failed, although this did not result in greater productivity than that of the rural magpies. Suburban magpies had similar mean numbers of young per breeding pair; they also showed higher mortality between fledging and a final count in February. This study suggests that introduced predators and deaths due to motor vehicles may account for this mortality in suburban areas. Anthropogenic factors present within suburban areas such as the watering of lawns and the widespread provision of food for wildlife are likely to play an important role in the differences in the timing of breeding. In addition, temperature may also have an inhibitory effect on the onset of breeding, an influence lessened in the suburban areas due to higher temperatures.     

计算机绘图软件在现代包装装潢设计中的应用

现代科技的发展,对包装装潢设计要求越来越高,图样也越来越复杂,包装装潢设计已由以往以人工为主的的传统设计转向利用计算机的高速运算及数据处理能力的崭新设计时代.文章通过对Photosho、CoreIDRAW、AutoCAD三个设计软件功能的分析,提出电脑软件在现代包装装潢设计中运用的必要性与时代性.