影响风险投资退出方式选择的因素分析

不同的风险投资退出方式会造成很大的业绩差别，因此风险投资从一开始就注重退出方式的选择。本文在分析我国风险投资退出主要方式的基础上，对影响风险投资退出方式选择的要素进行了分析。最后从分段投资、融资契约、技术创新和控制权分配等角度对完善风险投资退出方式进行了探讨。     

Innovation timing advantages: From economic theory to strategic application

First and second mover theory, as developed in industrial organization economics, maintains that firms can gain competitive advantage by using optimal timing in the introduction of innovations. Because the industry is the unit of analysis, the theory does not provide specific guidance for individual firms. We analyze the underlying sources of first and second mover timing advantages and clarify several issues regarding the basic theory. We then identify a variety of factors at the industry, firm and product/service levels and develop propositions showing their relations to individual firms in their efforts to benefit from timing advantages. We discuss the link which these indicator factors provide between economic theory and strategic timing choices. Finally, we suggest directions for research which would assist firms and their managers in selecting and pursuing innovation timing strategies.     

基于波动择时绩效的高维波动率估计量与预测模型研究

对协方差矩阵高频估计量和预测模型的选择，共同影响协方差的预测效果，从而影响波动择时投资组合策略的绩效。资产维数很高时，协方差矩阵高频估计量的构建会因非同步交易而丢弃大量数据，降低信息利用效率。鉴于此，将可以充分利用资产日内价格信息的KEM估计量用于估计中国股市资产的高维协方差矩阵，并与两种常用协方差矩阵估计量进行比较。进一步地，将三种估计量分别用于多元异质自回归模型、指数加权移动平均模型以及短、中、长期移动平均模型进行样本外预测，并比较在三种基于风险的投资组合策略下的经济效益。采用上证50指数中20只不同流动性成份股逐笔高频数据的实证研究发现：（1）无论是在市场平稳时期还是市场剧烈震荡期，长期移动平均模型都是高维协方差估计量预测建模的最优选择，在应用于各种波动择时策略时都可以实现最低成本和最高收益。（2）在市场平稳时期，KEM估计量是高维协方差估计的最优选择，应用于各种波动择时策略时基本都可以实现最低成本和最高收益；在市场剧烈震荡期，使用KEM估计量进行波动择时仍然可以在成本方面保持优势，但在收益上并不占优。（3）无论是在市场平稳时期还是市场剧烈震荡期，最低的成本都是在采用等风险贡献投资组合时实现的，而最高的收益则都是在采用最小方差投资组合时实现的。研究不仅首次检验了KEM估计量在常用波动择时策略中的适用性，而且首次实证了实现最为简单的长期移动平均模型在高维协方差矩阵预测中的优越性，对投资决策和风险管理等实务应用都具有重要意义。     

不同决策目标下受资金约束零售商的最优采购策略研究

在提前订购和延时采购两种情景下,分别考虑最大化期望收益和最小化违约概率两种决策目标,对受资金约束零售商的最优采购量和相匹配的融资策略进行分析,结果表明,相比于以最大化期望收益为决策目标,以最小化违约概率为决策目标的零售商在提前订购中将奉行"保守"的采购量和融资策略（仅耗尽自有资金量采购而不融资）,而在延时采购中采取"激进"的采购量和融资策略（与最大化期望收益下一致）;在此基础上,对不同决策目标下受资金约束零售商的最优采购时机问题进行研究发现,在最大化期望收益下,零售商的最优采购时机由产品采购成本、市场容量均值、市场容量方差、自有资金量、银行贷款利率等多个参数共同决定,而在最小化违约概率下,零售商将始终选择延时采购。     

Disrupting the ‘life-cycle’ of violence in social relations: recommendations for anti-trafficking interventions from an analysis of pathways out of sex work for women in Eastern India

This article argues for the need to change the ways in which anti-human trafficking (AT) non-government organisations (NGOs) and their interventions in India frame and address violence in sex work. The article asserts that AT NGOs need to move beyond their ideological allegiances and infuse their interventions with a better understanding of the lived realities of women who are coerced into sex work. This argument is based on an analysis of women's pathways out of sex work in Eastern India, which include both finding independent routes, and also reliance on AT interventions. The research suggests that AT interventions need to acknowledge the centrality of social relationships in women's lives and experiences of violence. Social relations influence women's entry into sex work, affect their experiences within it, and shape their pathways out of sex work.     

Comparing Heterosexuals’ and Gay Men/Lesbians’ Responses to Relationship Problems and the Effects of Internalized Homophobia on Gay Men/Lesbians’ Responses to Relationship Problems in Turkey

The purpose of the present study was twofold: (1) to investigate the effects of sexual orientation (heterosexuals and gay men/lesbians) and gender difference on responses to romantic relationship problems (Exit, Voice, Loyalty, and Neglect [EVLN] responses) and of perceived partner’s EVLN responses in Turkey, and (2) to examine whether internalized homophobia was associated with EVLN responses and perceived partner’s EVLN responses for gay men and lesbians. Responses to Dissatisfaction Scale-Accommodation Instrument, Internalized Homophobia, and Demographics Information were administered to 187 participants (44 lesbians, 44 gay men, 53 heterosexual women, 46 heterosexual men).The MANCOVA results showed that men reported higher loyalty than women, whereas women presented more exit responses than men. Further, the interactions between gender and sexual orientation on the participants’ EVLN responses and on the perceived partner’s EVLN responses were significant. With respect to heterosexual women, heterosexual men displayed more loyalty responses. Lesbians had higher scores on loyalty than did heterosexual women. Lesbians also had higher scores on perceived partner’s exit response than did heterosexual women and gay men. On the contrary, heterosexual women reported more perceived partner’s voice response than lesbians. In addition, lesbians reported higher perceived partner’s neglect responses than heterosexual women. Compared to heterosexual women, heterosexual men reported higher perceived partner’s exit response. Finally, internalized homophobia was associated with destructive responses for both lesbians and gay men.     

Bubbles and Crashes

We present a model in which an asset bubble can persist despite the presence of rational arbitrageurs. The resilience of the bubble stems from the inability of arbitrageurs to temporarily coordinate their selling strategies. This synchronization problem together with the individual incentive to time the market results in the persistence of bubbles over a substantial period. Since the derived trading equilibrium is unique, our model rationalizes the existence of bubbles in a strong sense. The model also provides a natural setting in which news events, by enabling synchronization, can have a disproportionate impact relative to their intrinsic informational content.     

农村最低生活保障退出机制构建研究

低保退出机制是农村最低生活保障制度的重要组成部分,它的建立对于完善农村最低生活保障制度有着十分重要意义。但目前低保退出机制相对滞后,其中低保标准较低、福利依赖、收入核定困难是主要制约因素。建立分类救助模式与脱贫扶助体系、完善家庭收入核定手段、对低保对象实施动态管理以及强化村级监督等是突破障碍。构建我国农村最低生活保障退出机制的有效途径。     

基于演化博弈的僵尸企业退出机制

僵尸企业被困市场自救无力,需要政府部门发挥积极的引导作用。针对僵尸企业的退出机制,从僵尸企业、银行、政府三方出发,建立演化博弈模型展开研究。分析结果表明,当前实施的专项补助策略主要对大型国有僵尸企业的退出有加速作用,中小型僵尸企业的退出仍然面临着较高的阻碍效应。政府加强对银行的监管及对“僵尸借贷”行为的惩戒能够从根源上减少僵尸企业的产生,并迫使已经存在的僵尸企业退出市场,而简化破产程序等降低退出成本的手段能够加快清理全部的僵尸企业。长远看来,政府需要进一步放松对企业和银行的干预,并引导大家理性看待破产行为,减轻破产企业负责人的心理压力,降低破产带来的人力资本价值损失,以预防新僵尸企业的产生。     

贫困退出：政策蕴含、机制解构与发展扶持政策接续

贫困退出机制完善有助于扶贫开发业务流程再造、脱贫对象生计能力提升与扶贫治理优化。综合考察“着力于扶贫开发制度完善和扶贫资源效率提升、突出多元主体参与扶贫开发治理机制创建和强调现代信息技术利用与新型管理模式创新”的贫困退出机制运行特点,针对性分析贫困退出标准僵化且难以科学衡量、“程序合法即合理”的认知偏差、贫困退出工作激励水平不高等贫困退出实践困境,提出了贫困退出机制完善与发展扶持政策接续策略：严把精准路径,完善贫困退出指标体系;严格贫困户、贫困村的退出程序,注重贫困退出工作考核评估;强化贫困退出宣传教育,注重精神脱贫与物质脱贫相结合;注重正向激励与负向激励相结合,强化贫困退出工作支持保障;创新发展扶持政策接续,提升脱贫对象生计可持续发展能力。