金融危机视角下当前我国农民工失业问题解析

我国以加工制造、出口为导向的中小型企业在当前的全球金融危机中受到了严重的影响,而它们在危机之前又吸纳了大量的农民工,因而当前这场金融海啸无疑对农民工群体造成了重大影响。作为社会弱势群体,农民工失业和再就业问题已受到全社会的关注。从政府、企业、农民工自身三个角度分析当前造成农民工失业的实际原因,并提出相应的政策建议。     

3G业务融合创新的品牌策略研究

随着通信技术的进步,网络融合将给世界通信产业带来一系列的机遇和挑战。寻求一种有效的业务模式,顺利实现3G业务市场的推进则成为当前我国运营商战略转型关注的焦点。为此,通过设计3G业务融合创新的品牌架构模型,试图以品牌的建立、拓展和延伸三个阶段的营销策略的制定来探索2G业务向3G业务平滑演进的创新业务模式。     

影响牧区牧民幸福感因素的实证研究——天祝藏族自治县调查报告

改革开放以来。我国经济建设取得了辉煌成就,目前,部分地区甚至一些大城市的人均收入已赶上发达国家．但其总体幸福水平不尽人意。相反,有调查显示收入水平明显大幅度低于城市居民的农民。其生活满意感超过了城市居民。出现了“幸福悼论”现象。本文依据贫困牧区县的调查资料,运用ordered logit model对牧民幸福感同收入及若干非经济因素之间关系的维度和强度进行了考量。在假定牧区宗教及文化习俗对牧民的幸福感均有恒定影响的前提下,分析结果显示．牲畜数量是牧民的主要幸福源泉;牧区女性的幸福感要明显低于男性;牧民收入水平尚较低的情况下。人均年收入同幸福感显著正相关;牧民自身的教育投入对幸福感的提高起抑制作用：以30岁为拐点．牧区成年人和老年人的幸福感相对低于青年人;遇到资金周转困难时,银行对牧民家庭的贷款有助于改善幸福状况：物质条件对幸福感不具有明显的影响。     

论汤亭亭小说《中国佬》中的文化悖论

美国华裔作家汤亭亭的作品中常常表现出明显的中国情结,她的小说《中国佬》就是例证。这部小说的主人公在实现“美国梦”后产生的空幻感印证了当代华裔文学叙述中的文化悖论现象,即身份认同的困惑和生存状态的悖反现象。     

政策过程、秩序扩展与社会事业供给制度变迁

社会事业的三个供给者(政府、私人和非营利组织)具有不完全替代性。我国社会事业体制改革,是由政府供给模式向三者"共担"模式的转型。改革以压力系统下的政策过程为起点,正式制度变迁的进程也受其影响,然而政策过程只是制度演化的一个环节,具有根本性意义的是社会事业供给领域内的秩序扩展。政府既不能扮演"社会工程师"的角色,也不能回避重大变革。加强自身执政能力的同时推动政治体制创新,是社会事业供给有序化的必由之路。     

营销能力对企业创新影响的正负效应——兼及对“Christensen悖论”的实证与解释

营销能力对企业创新具有何种影响是理论界存有争论的问题.营销学家认为具有正向影响;Christensen等认为具有负向影响.文章通过重新设计的研究模型和实证研究说明,营销能力对企业创新影响可能存在正向效应,也可能存在负向效应,这要由环境动荡性决定.根据所得结论,处于较低环境动荡性的企业,无论规模大小,只能不断提高营销能力和选择渐进式创新才能获得良好的创新绩效;而处于较高环境动荡性的企业,营销能力对创新会有双重影响效应,采用颠覆性创新是营销能力较弱的企业战胜大企业的一个有效策略.     

自发市场中的过度竞争及其问题——欲求膨胀、策略性行为和社会资源浪费

现代主流的新古典自由主义经济学所持的有效市场理论认为，市场价格信号能够充分披露信息，从而实现合作共赢之完全竞争。但是，这一论断是建立在行为者只关心个人的绝对利益并具有长远理性之基础上的，而现实市场主体却不仅关注其绝对收益，而且还关注相对收益，从而就会导向过度竞争。正是由于市场上的过度竞争滋生了无限膨胀的欲求，欲求的不断膨胀则加剧了相对位置的争夺;进而，相对位置的争夺又引发了策略性行为，策略性行为则导致内生交易费用飙升，并在对私人信息的众多中浪费大量的社会资源。     

Wildfire Policy in Mediterranean France: How Far is it Efficient and Sustainable?

A new fire policy reinforcing aggressive fire suppression was established in Mediterranean France in response to the devastating wildfires of the 1990s, but to what extent this has changed fire activity yet remains poorly understood. For this purpose, we compared the number and location of ignitions and of burned areas between two 20‐year periods (1975–1994 vs. 1995–2014), in parallel to the changes in fuel covering, human activity promoting ignitions, and fire weather. The number of fires decreased almost continuously since 1975, but sharply after 1994, suggesting an effect of better fire prevention due to the new policy. But the major change in fire activity is a considerable reduction in fire size and burned areas after 1994, especially during summer and in the most fire‐prone places, in response to massive efforts put into fire suppression. These reductions have occurred while the covering by fuel biomass, the human pressure on ignition, and the fire weather index increased, thus making the study area more hazardous. Our results suggest that a strategy of aggressive fire suppression has great potential for counterbalancing the effects of climate changes and human activities and for controlling fire activity in the short term. However, we discuss whether such a suppression‐oriented approach is sustainable in the context of global changes, which cast new fire challenges as demonstrated by the devastative fires of 2003 and 2016. We advocate for a more comprehensive fire policy to come.     

Maximizing the rate of return on the capital employed in shipping capacity renewal

Decisions regarding investments in capacity expansion/renewal require taking into account both the operating fitness and the financial performance of the investment. While several operating requirements have been considered in the operations research literature, the corresponding financial aspects have not received as much attention. We introduce a model for the renewal of shipping capacity which maximizes the Average Internal Rate of Return (AIRR). Maximizing the AIRR sets stricter return requirements on money expenditures than classic profit maximization models and may describe more closely shipping investors׳ preferences. The resulting nonlinear model is linearized to ease computation. Based on data from a shipping company we compare a profit maximization model with an AIRR maximization model. Results show that while maximizing profits results in aggressive expansions of the fleet, maximizing the return provides more balanced renewal strategies which may be preferable to most shipping investors.     

镁氧类油井水泥膨胀剂膨胀机理的研究

基于膨胀剂原地反应模型和化学热力学原理,讨论了晶体生长压的源动力及水泥浆体体积膨胀与结晶压的关系。经过分析得知:膨胀驱动力来自于水化体系化学势的降低而产生的结晶膨胀压,即化学能被转化成机械功。采用镁氧油井水泥膨胀剂和高抗硫G级油井水泥,考察了油井水泥浆塑性体的塑性强度和膨胀的关系以及硬化体的膨胀性能,为理论分析提供了有力的实验证据。结果表明:水泥浆体产生膨胀的充要条件是①浆体的塑性强度足够大(受限的晶体生长);②在水泥浆体中反应物的局部浓度过饱和(反应产物的溶度积比标准状态下大)。