预期违约制度与我国合同法修改

预期违约救济制度起源于英美判例法，它更为明显地体现了合同法所追求的诚实信用、公平、效益等原则。预期违约制度已成为世界上许多国家合同法体系中的重要组成部分。如果我国新的《合同法》对大陆法系传统概念加以扬弃，吸收英美法系中的合理因素，引入预期违约制度，将具有十分现实的意义     

英雄的当代回归——论《亮剑》走红的原因

《亮剑》这部电视连续剧在央视播出以来,引起观众的强烈反响。各省市电视台也不甘落后纷纷播出,收视率依然居高不下。"李云龙"、"亮剑"等词语成为人们街谈巷议中重现率极高的几个词之一,《亮剑》这部电视剧走红的原因很复杂,既有文学本身的因素也有非文学的因素。笔者想着重谈谈其走红的各种原因来探讨决定文学创作的复杂因素。     

家长期望教育价值的思考与探索

家长对子女的学习成绩、学历水平、职业选择等关系他们一生成长的重要方面均有很高的期望。要克服长期存在的家长期望过高的偏向以及由此给儿童、青少年身心发展和学校教育带来的负面影响,必须正确认识家长期望的教育意义,给家长期望适切、合理的教育定位,准确把握家长期望的水平尺度,不断提高家长期望质量。这样,才能充分发挥家长期望特有的教育功能,实现家长期望的教育价值。     

论新课程改革中的教师角色期待及其实现

新课程期待教师的教学行为实现从灌输到引导、从个体劳动到团体合作、从单一评价到多元评价。伴随着教学行为的变化,教师的角色也相应地从知识的传授者到知识体系的建构者、从课程的执行者到课程的研究开发者的转变;而角色期待得以实现的基础是教材的改革与创新;调整改革的心态,加大教师培训力度;转变政府职能,积极创造相应的条件。     

Dynamics of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: is monetary policy effective during zero interest rate policy?

The monetary policy targets the short rates; however, during zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), the short end of the yield curve cannot serve as a policy instrument. Relying on the joint yields-macro latent factors model, this study empirically examines the effect of monetary policy stances on term structure and the possible feedback effect on the real sector using the Japanese experience of ZIRP. The analysis indicates that it is the entire term structure that transmits the policy shocks to the real economy rather than the yield spread only. The monetary policy signals pass through the yield curve level and slope factors to stimulate the economic activity. The curvature factor, besides reflecting the cyclical fluctuations of the economy, acts as a leading indicator for future inflation. In addition, policy influence tends to be low as the short end becomes segmented toward medium/long-term of the yield curve. Furthermore, volatility in bond markets is found to be asymmetrically affected by positive and negative shocks and long end tends to be less sensitive to stochastic shocks than the short maturities. The expectation hypothesis of the term structure does not hold during the ZIRP period.     

城区婴儿家庭教育现状的调查与审视——以四川省内江市为例

家庭教育对婴儿的发展至关重要。经调查发现：在对早期教育的认识方面,家长重视早期教育,尤其是家庭教育,但较为忽视婴儿自我意识和独立性的培养。教育行为方面,家长在认知、健康、社会和情绪情感方面教育得当,但艺术熏陶稍显缺乏,且存在物质条件提供缺乏科学性等问题。教育需求与期望方面,家长对早教机构和早教交流平台有较大需求;对子女的学历期望多持顺其自然的态度。基于以上现状,多渠道构建早期教育公益讲座,建设早期教育交流平台以及发挥社区教育的作用,是发展城区婴儿家庭教育的努力方向。     

负二项分布的推广

本文主要是在二项分布,多项分布,负二项分布的基础上,把负二项分布进一步推广,给出负N项分布的定义,推导出它的概率分布,并计算出其数学期望和方差.     

治理通货膨胀预期应成为宏观政策关注的新视角

通货膨胀既可以是供求失衡导致的，也可以是货币膨胀导致的。在世界经济迅猛发展的今天，通货膨胀发生发展的机理也存悄然发生着变化，正是这些变化，使得通货膨胀对社会经济的影响已经前置到通货膨胀预期对经济发展的影响。本文以中国经济企稳过程为真实背景，初步探讨通货膨胀预期的负效应及治理的政策路径，尽管存在个案特征，但仍不失为一种分析思路。     

网络互动中人际信任概念辨析

因特网的虚拟性和匿名性等特征,使网络人际信任的内涵有别于现实社会。网络人际信任是交往双方对对方能够完成自己所托付之事的一种概括化期望,是心理预期和行为策略的统一。风险小、潜在威胁小是网络人际信任的基础;情感风险是网络人际信任的主要内容;文本符号是网络人际信任关系的中介。     

Estimation of Polygons and Areas

Abstract.  In forestry the problem of estimating areas is central. This paper addresses area estimation through fitting of a polygon to observed coordinate data. Coordinates of corners and points along the sides of a simple closed polygon are measured with independent random errors. This paper focuses on procedures to adjust the coordinates for estimation of the polygon and its area. Different new techniques that consider different amounts of prior information are described and compared. The different techniques use restricted least squares, maximum likelihood and the expectation maximization algorithm. In a simulation study it is shown that the root mean square errors of the estimates are decreased when coordinates are adjusted before estimation. Minor further improvement is achieved by using prior information about the order and the distribution of the points along the sides of the polygon. This paper has its origin in forestry but there are also other applications.