Dynamic risk control for project development

A statistical methodology for dynamic risk control is discussed. The research is aimed at constructing tools for the analysis of expert opinions within a company about the risks involved in the production of a new commercial product or service. Focus is on risk events and on the analysis of the expert assessments of probabilities, losses and correlations of such events. A rescoring loop of risk assessments and preventive actions taken by the company on the basis of these assessments is illustrated through an example on software development. Relevant literature on risk and subjective elicitations is reviewed.     

Expert Informants and Relative Risk: A Methodology for Modeling Waterways

This project describes a methodology for assessing relative risk along a transportation corridor utilizing waterborne transportation on the busiest port area in the world, the lower Mississippi River (from the mouth of Southwest Pass up through Baton Rouge, Louisiana). The paper calculates a relative risk scale, using data obtained from maritime experts, previous research, and existing databases. The research aggregates the vessel traffic data and geographic risk location data to produce relative risk scores for each mile along the River from the mouth of Southwest Pass to the termination of shipping at the U.S. 190 bridge across the River at Baton Rouge. This is done in a very simple and practical way for this initial model: (1) each vessel traveling the Mississippi is classified according to its risk potential for those miles that it passes in route to where it docks, and (2) points along the river are assigned a relative risk score based upon risk variables identified by expérts identified through a standard sampling procedure. The relative risk scores for river miles are combinations of these two factors.     

Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Uncertainty in the Risk Assessment of Herbicide-Tolerant Oilseed Crops

One of the lay public's concerns about genetically modified (GM) organisms (GMO) and related emerging technologies is that not all the important risks are evaluated or even identified yet--and that ignorance of the unanticipated risks could lead to severe environmental or public health consequences. To some degree, even the scientists who participated in the analysis of the risks from GMOs (arguably the people most qualified to critique these analyses) share some of this concern. To formally explore the uncertainty in the risk assessment of a GM crop, we conducted detailed interviews of seven leading experts on GM oilseed crops to obtain qualitative and quantitative information on their understanding of the uncertainties associated with the risks to agriculture from GM oilseed crops (canola or rapeseed). The results of these elicitations revealed three issues of potential concern that are currently left outside the scope of risk assessments. These are (1) the potential loss of the agronomic and environmental benefits of glyphosate (a herbicide widely used in no-till agriculture) due to the combined problems of glyphosate-tolerant canola and wheat volunteer plants, (2) the growing problem of seed lot contamination, and (3) the potential market impacts. The elicitations also identified two areas where knowledge is insufficient. These are: the occurrence of hybridization between canola and wild relatives and the ability of the hybrids to perpetuate themselves in nature, and the fate of the herbicide-tolerance genes in soil and their interaction with soil microfauna and -flora. The methodological contribution of this work is a formal approach to analyzing the uncertainty surrounding complex problems.     

Engaging diverse experts in a global environmental assessment: participation in the first work programme of IPBES and opportunities for improvement

The need for interdisciplinary expert groups from different regions of the world to be involved in the fields of sustainability science and environmental change research is increasingly recognised. The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IBPES) was established in 2012 as a science-policy interface and has gone beyond previous initiatives in its articulation of a clear commitment to inter- and transdisciplinary approaches that mandate a diversity of genders, disciplines and regional backgrounds within its expert groups. The first IPBES work programme, carried out between 2014 and 2018, has been supported by 17 expert groups, comprising over 1000 experts, who have been selected from over 2000 government and stakeholder nominations through formal procedures. In this paper, we present and critique the framework through which IPBES identifies and selects experts to participate in its processes. In addition, we synthesise and carry out a quantitative analysis on the expert nomination and selection data relating to the first assessment activities of IPBES. Identifying that the balance of regions, genders, disciplines and knowledge systems represented within these expert groups is still disproportionally dominated by male natural scientists from the Global North, the paper makes recommendations of how to better engage knowledge holders from different disciplines and diverse knowledge systems in future iterations of the IPBES work programme.     

具有多种故障管理模式的分布式智能网络管理系统

提出了一种分布式智能网络管理系统──ＤＩＮＭＳ。该系统具有与ＴＣＰ／ＩＰ有关的故障诊断知识，能够自动处理复杂的异种机网络环境中的故障。文中描述了ＤＩＮＭＳ的体系结构，网络故障管理的知识表达和控制方法，特别是合作诊断方法。讨论了ＤＩＮＭＳ的实现，并给出了一个合作诊断的实例。     

CAPP专家系统主要推理条件的建立

针对一些CAPP专家系统存在的整体推理功能和实用性差的问题,本文从工程实际出发,提出了CAPP专家系统的一种推理模块,并对其相应的主要推理条件等作了分析讨论。     

基于专家PID控制的双闭环调速系统仿真分析

专家控制的实质是基于受控对象和控制规律的各种知识,并以智能方式利用这些知识来设计控制器,利用专家经验来设计PID参数构成专家PID控制。本文对韶关钢铁集团有限公司炼轧厂第18#机架调速系统进行了研究,认为专家PID构成双闭环调速系统的控制器具有自整定功能,可以全面提高系统的暂态性能。     

论完善民事诉讼中证人出庭作证制度

目前,证人不愿出庭作证的现象已经成为困扰我国民事审判的严重问题。本文通过对我国现行证人出庭作证制度的缺陷进行分析,寻找解决问题的关键。     

“S—CDA”铸钢件缺陷分析专家系统

本文介绍一个用 Turbo—prolog 语言编制的铸钢件缺陷判别、分析专家系统 S—CDA。该系统采用人工智能的基本原理,可根据铸钢件缺陷的形状、大小、分布等物理特征及生产条件判断出缺陷的具体类型,并能根据相应的工艺因素分析出该缺陷产生的原因,最终给出预防和消除该缺陷的工艺措施。     

Eliciting Information from Experts on the Likelihood of Rapid Climate Change

The threat of so‐called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations.