党的执政能力分层建设之思考

中国共产党这一概念所包含的主体可区分为:党的整体、各级党的组织和党员个体。这三种不同的主体在党的执政实践中,分别具有不同的职能。我们只有在区分它们各自职能的基础上,对其能力有针对性地分别加以建设,才能把党的执政能力建设落到实处,有效地推进“党的建设新的伟大工程”。     

关于院校合并中财务问题的思考

院校合并中会遇到很多问题 ,其中 70 %左右的问题与财务有关。财务合并是院校合并的重要方面 ,需做大量的、细致的基础工作 ,要注意并防止院校合并中可能出现的对合并不利的财务问题。院校合并中财务工作处理得好 ,就能保证院校合并进展顺利 ,平稳运行 ,发展壮大     

小企业融资缺口分析及对策研究

小企业在发展中通常会遇到市场难以解决的融资缺口问题 ,即借贷资金缺口与资本缺口。由于小企业规模较小 ,融资成本相对较高、信用担保机制缺乏以及企业自身“存活性”差等条件约束 ,引致小企业在有组织金融市场上的局部市场失效 ,市场融资难以有效形成 ,从而产生小企业的融资缺口。针对小企业存在融资功能的缺陷 ,应强化弥补融资缺口的金融支持政策 ,从法律法规层面加大对小企业的支持力度 ;建立完善的信用担保体系 ,形成小企业融资担保机制 ;规范小企业金融机构 ,构筑小企业融资体系 ;开发资本市场 ,加大对小企业的金融支持     

Responsibility,planning and risk management: moralizing everyday finance through financial education

The individualization, privatization and marketization of risk management represent a fundamental dimension of the financialization of everyday life. As individuals are required to engage with financial products and services as the main way of protecting themselves from risks and uncertainties, their economic welfare and security are construed as depending largely on their own financial decisions. Within this setting, the concept of financial literacy and accompanying practices of financial education have emerged as a prominent institutional field handling the formulation and communication of the attributes and dispositions that arguably constitute the proper financial actor. This article analyzes financial education programmes currently conducted by state agencies in Israel, examining the notions and principles they articulate when defining and explaining proper financial conduct. The study indicates that moral themes and categories occupy a salient place in the formulation of the character traits that constitute the desired literate financial actor. Notions of individual responsibility, planning ahead and rational risk management are presented not merely as instrumental resources, but as moral imperatives. Through these notions, the programmes moralize a broad array of everyday practices of personal finance such as saving, investing, borrowing and budget management, thereby connecting the sphere of financial matters to the domain of moral virtues. Offering a representation of particular modes of financial conduct as constitutive components of morally virtuous personhood, these practices imbue the financial field as a whole, especially its current generalized logic of individualized and marketized risk management, with moral meanings, hence contributing to the normalization and depoliticization of the financialization of everyday life.     

Cross-validation of the screening scale in an adult protective services sample

Adult Protective Services (APS) professionals are often called on to assess decision-making capacity when investigating financial exploitation. Previous research found that in consecutive APS cases, a decision-making screening scale (LFDSS) also detected financial exploitation. The purpose of this study was to apply the clinical cutoff scores derived from the previous study to a new sample of APS cases. Using a sample of 105 participants, from APS workers across 5 counties this study investigated the clinical utility of the LFDSS to detect financial exploitation based on ratings by APS professionals using the scale. Results demonstrate that the LFDSS has excellent internal consistency and clinical utility properties. This paper provides support for use of the LFDSS as a reliable and valid instrument. Instructions for use of the LFDSS are included in the article, along with information about online support tools.     

Identifying Systemically Important Banks: A temporal approach for macroprudential policies

Contrary to the general belief, systemic risk does not only regard the risk posed by balance sheet relationships and interdependencies among institutions. It also features a temporal dimension related to the inappropriate responses of financial market participants to changes in risk over time. This paper proposes a method to simultaneously address the cross-sectional and the time dimension in which systemic risk materializes. The method is based on the TOPHITS algorithm. It provides three scores, namely borrowing, lending and time scores: the first two represent the systemic importance of the borrowing and the lending activity associated with each financial institution,while the third represents an empirical Early Warning Signal of the financial crisis. Our findings reveal that the identification of the time score as an indicator for an incoming market distress could be relevant to design macro prudential policies.     

Getting low educated and older people into work: The role of fiscal policy

Raising employment, in particular employment among older individuals and low educated individuals, stands high on the agenda of policy makers in many OECD countries. Increased sensitivity in recent years to rising inequality has made the challenge only larger. In this paper we evaluate alternative fiscal policy scenarios to face this challenge. We construct and use an overlapping generations model for an open economy where individuals differ not only by age, but also by innate ability and human capital. The model allows us to study effects on aggregate employment, per capita income and welfare, as well as effects for specific age and ability groups. We show that well-considered fiscal policy changes can significantly improve macroeconomic productive efficiency, without increasing intergenerational or intragenerational welfare inequality. Our results strongly prefer a reduction in the labor tax rate on older workers and on all low-wage earners, financed by an overall reduction in non-employment benefits. An alternative financing option is to raise the consumption tax rate. These results are to be seen as long-run effects for economies at potential output.     

FEPA-金融时间序列自适应组合预测模型

本文报告一种金融时间序列预测的信号分析、信息融合与智能计算组合模型,简称FEPA,由针对金融时间序列（FTS）信号分析的经验模态分解（EMD）、用于数据降维的主成分分析（PCA）和用于非线性建模的人工神经网络（ANN）三部分组成。该模型首先应用滑动窗口截取原始金融时间序列最近期数据集,应用EMD分解算法把数据集分解成不同尺度的本征模态函数（IMF）,然后通过主成分分析将分解后的数据降维,提取最有信息量的特征;然后将这些特征输入到神经网络进行组合预测。本文提出的组合预测模型FEPA是基于分解-提优-合成的信息融合思想,有效提高了预测可靠性。其创新点在于：1）首次给出了EMD算法的结构化表达,提供了今后融合更多信息的算法接口;2）通过多步长预测输出深入研究EMD分解的有效信息结构;3）通过切换到更细时间框架来处理EMD的端点效应,并探索了两级时间框架下的预测效果;4）给出了金融时间序列组合预测模型的一般性架构,具有可升级性和可扩展性。并且通过滑动窗口EMD使得实证更能切近实际。通过在沪深300股指和澳大利亚股指上的实证,结果表明FEPA预测模型在沪深300股指日线和15分钟线上的预测命中率高达78%和82%,在澳大利亚股指日线上也达到了74%的命中率,经比较,明显高于文献中常见的5种模型。     

金融集聚、生产率增长与城乡收入差距的实证分析——基于动态空间面板模型

本文利用中国2003-2013年285个地级及以上城市的统计数据,采用动态空间面板模型实证分析了金融集聚对城市总体生产率增长及其内部城乡收入差距的影响,研究结论表明：金融集聚是促进城市总体生产率增长的重要推动力,同时也是导致城市内部城乡收入差距扩大的关键因素,这主要是因为金融集聚显著推动了城市居民人均收入水平的提高,而对农村居民人均收入水平的提升作用不显著。本文的政策含义在于,在城市金融集聚的扩散阶段还没有到来之前,政府旨在缓解城乡收入差距的金融政策可能会抑制城市总体生产率增长。     

Logical abilities and behavior in strategic-form games

This paper investigates the impact of cognitive abilities and preferences on behavior in games. We first measure subjects’ logical abilities and social preferences and then evaluate their influence on behavior in strategic-form games. For this purpose, we estimate how logical abilities and preferences relate to the probability of a subject being of a specific behavioral type. We find that better logical abilities increase the likelihood of sophisticated behavior. This shift is stronger for subjects who are classified as “selfish”. However, not even the most logically able, selfish subjects are identified as Nash types.