国际金融危机对我国资源经济型地区增长的影响与对策

由于我国资源型地区经济与东部沿海地区的制造业之间存在明显的上下游产业关联,国际金融危机对制造业的冲击必然传导到资源型经济地区。资源型经济地区受金融危机的影响存在一定的滞后性,但受冲击程度更深;同时,扩大内需政策在资源型地区发挥政策效应也存在一定的滞后性。因此,扩大内需政策重点应突出短期效应强、对本地需求拉动效应明显的领域,以确保资源型经济地区经济的平稳增长。     

“福利田”的经济分析

由于农地经济功能的弱化和社会功能的强化,以保障基本生活为目的的福利田产生,与之相对的是以获取最大经济效益为目的的效率田。通过对福利田的经济分析,我们可以明确看到,福利田导致了农地的低效利用,制约了农业效益的提高,同时影响到农民工的非农化进程,阻碍了我国产业结构升级。     

金融危机背景下大龄返乡农民工养老保障模式与政策支撑

金融危机对我国中小型企业产生了巨大影响,企业的经营困难造成了一大批失业返乡的农民工,而其中的大龄农民工面临着更为严峻的困境。如何解决他们养老保障问题成为当今社会关注的热点。对现实生活中大龄返乡农民工养老面临的四大困境分析表明,从国家养老保障政策的支持、社会养老关系网络的构建、充分发挥受保主体的自保能力三个层面来构建金融危机后大龄返乡农民工养老保障的模式．具有一定的现实意义和价值。     

分税制以后我国财权配置问题实证研究

1994年推行的分税制是不彻底的,财权配置缺乏协调性和统一性,致使各级政府在公共产品和服务提供中责权利不对称。因此,需要调整财权配置,以保证事权和财权的统一。     

河北省金融资源充分利用的路径选择

在开放的市场条件下,金融作为现代经济的核心,其资源的优化配置对区域经济发展有着及其重要的作用,本文根据河北省金融资源配置现状,分析了河北省金融资源利用中存在的问题,指出要充分利用河北省金融资源,必须从调整经济产业结构、改善金融生态环境、抑制金融资源外流和提高金融业自身水平做起。只有这样才能提高河北金融的竞争能力,促进河北经济的整体发展。     

Approximating the risk score for disease diagnosis using MARS

In disease screening and diagnosis, often multiple markers are measured and combined to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. McIntosh and Pepe [Combining several screening tests: optimality of the risk score, Biometrics 58 (2002), pp. 657–664] showed that the risk score, defined as the probability of disease conditional on multiple markers, is the optimal function for classification based on the Neyman–Pearson lemma. They proposed a two-step procedure to approximate the risk score. However, the resulting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is only defined in a subrange (L, h) of false-positive rates in (0,1) and the determination of the lower limit L needs extra prior information. In practice, most diagnostic tests are not perfect, and it is usually rare that a single marker is uniformly better than the other tests. Using simulation, I show that multivariate adaptive regression spline is a useful tool to approximate the risk score when combining multiple markers, especially when ROC curves from multiple tests cross. The resulting ROC is defined in the whole range of (0,1) and is easy to implement and has intuitive interpretation. The sample code of the application is shown in the appendix.     

Doubly adaptive biased coin designs with heterogeneous responses

Doubly adaptive biased coin design (DBCD) is an important family of response-adaptive randomization procedures for clinical trials. It uses sequentially updated estimation to skew the allocation probability to favor the treatment that has performed better thus far. An important assumption for the DBCD is the homogeneity assumption for the patient responses. However, this assumption may be violated in many sequential experiments. Here we prove the robustness of the DBCD against certain time trends in patient responses. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the design are obtained under some widely satisfied conditions. Also, we propose a general weighted likelihood method to reduce the bias caused by the heterogeneity in the inference after a trial. Some numerical studies are also presented to illustrate the finite sample properties of DBCD.     

浙江区域金融结构对产业集聚的影响研究 ——基于面板数据的实证分析

 以民营企业为基础的产业集聚群是浙江经济快速发展的重要原因。然而产业集聚的形成依赖于一定的外部环境,特别是对于资金的需求和金融结构有特殊的要求。本文通过对浙江11个市2000-2007年的面板数据,分析不同的金融结构对产业集聚的影响。并根据研究结论,提出了优化区域金融结构,促进浙江产业集聚群健康发展的对策建议。     

关于江南奏销案的再思考

对于清初江南奏销案,一般论者大多从清廷对士绅的政策层面着眼。文章则将此案置于清代财政制度建构的过程之中加以考察,认为江南奏销案并不是一个孤立的事件,清廷之所以在全国范围内发动奏销案是因为清初财政肩负双重使命,这种双重使命导致国家异常重视财政制度的完善和执行。江南奏销案对绅士的打击比较广泛是江南特殊的情形使然。     

社会主义市场经济条件下效率与公平宏观背景分析

效率与公平问题可以说是个古老而又常青的话题,同时效率与公平是人类所追求的两大价值,效率是人类追求美好生活的最好的动力,公平是人类追求美生活的最美好的愿望。效率的存在是社会和人类的发展动力,是人类社会对于人实现美好生活愿望的直接动力,文章从历史和理论层面来对社会主义市场经济条件下效率与公平的问题作一个背景分析。