住房市场系统模型研究

从宏观层面建立了包含银行、地产商及消费者在内的住房市场系统模型,重点考虑了信贷对住房市场供需双方的金融支持,构建了住房市场系统的定量分析框架,该框架对于银行主导的住房市场具有一般性。通过中国住房市场的实证分析,证实了模型的有效性。     

Die Rolle des Luftverkehrsrechts und der Haftung bei Flugzeugkatastrophen: Eine Finanzmarktanalyse

Zusammenfassung  Rechtsansprüche gegen Fluggesellschaften und Flugzeughersteller in Folge einer Flugzeugkatastrophe richten sich nach einer Flut rechtlicher Bestimmungen, die aus internationalen Abkommen, Vereinbarungen zwischen Fluglinien sowie aus Bundes- und Landesrecht resultieren. Die jeweilige Rechtsgrundlage in einem spezifischen Fall h?ngt von verschiedenen Umst?nden ab, die mit einem Unfall verbunden sind. Es überrascht daher nicht, dass zugesprochene Schadensersatz- und Schmerzensgeldzahlungen an die Angeh?rigen der Opfer von Fall zu Fall erheblich divergieren. In unserer Studie mit U.S.-amerikanischen Daten untersuchen wir, inwieweit der kurz- und langfristige Erfolg von Fluggesellschaften und Flugzeugherstellern durch Flugzeugkatastrophen beeinflusst wird und wir eruieren diejenigen Determinanten, die Performanceunterschiede erkl?ren k?nnen. Verwandte Untersuchungen haben sich weitgehend auf Effekte für Markennamen oder steigende Versicherungspr?mien als Ursachen für Aktienkursverluste konzentriert. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen darüber hinaus, dass das regulatorische Umfeld einer spezifischen Unglückssituation erheblichen Einfluss darauf hat, wie Finanzm?rkte reagieren. Die Reaktionen der Marktteilnehmer weisen darauf hin, dass die unterschiedlichen Berechnungsgrundlagen für die Opferentsch?digung recht klar erkannt werden.

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The role of aviation laws and legal liability in airplane accidents: A financial market perspective

Summary  Legal liability claims against airlines and airplane manufacturers following an aviation disaster are determined through a myriad of international treaties, intercarrier agreements, and federal and state laws. Which law applies in a specific situation depends on various circumstances surrounding the accident. As a result, pecuniary and non-pecuniary damage awards for the families of the accident victims may vary substantially from case to case. Using U.S. data, our study examines how aviation disasters affect the short and long-term performance of airlines and airplane manufacturers and explores the factors that drive the performance differences. While prior research has largely focused on brand name effects and rising insurance premiums as possible determinants of stock price losses, our results suggest that the regulatory environment that applies to a given aviation accident has a significant impact on how the market reacts to its announcement. Inequities in the valuation of a human life are clearly reflected in stock price reactions. While recent regime changes have helped eliminate some of these imbalances further reform may be necessary.

     

Underlying Values and Consequences in Financial Services

The freeing of financial markets has brought with it increasing sophistication in regulatory regimes. Over time, a succession of frauds and financial scandals has emphasised some limitations of these complex regulatory schemes. This paper seeks to address the reasons for the events that have caused concern, and suggests that they are to be found principally in three categories: (1) the underlying values that drive financial services; (2) the assumptions and values of regulatory regimes, and (3) the increased opportunities to break or evade the rules. Some possible ways forward are sketched. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

金融网络的模型和优化

金融网络就是经济系统中资金循环,文献[1-8]研究了金融网络的模型。本文则在文献[1-8]金融网络模型的基础之上,建立了资产、负债、适度规模和价格的改进模型。这一改进模型考虑了所有经济部门的金融工具的风险、金融网络的经济资源约束、资产和负债的会计帐户约束等问题。模型的改进适用于应用。文章采用了进化规划算法,并依此进行仿真实验。     

金融创新对货币需求影响的模型分析

本文将金融创新作为投资项目,假设了一个包含金融创新过程的初始成本。并将其导入Lucas现金预付款模型,然后利用这一拓展型模型分析了技术创新、利率变化、经济增长以及金融创新等因素对货币需求变化的影响。     

Policy Imperatives for the International Economy and for Financial Markets in the Emerging World Order

The world economy today is swept by unprecedented rates of change, complexity, interconnectedness, and uncertainty. For the first time since the 1930s, issues of the international economy and financial markets are playing a pivotal role in discussions of foreign and domestic policy. However, even as the revolutionary trends in the international economy and in world finance are in the offing, it is important to realize that the problems of mankind are primarily economic and social, not financial or political. While the trends towards liberalization of economic policies and integration of financial markets might seem to point toward the ultimate triumph of the magic of the market and free enterprise, a little reflection will reveal a number of undercurrents, dilemmas, and difficult choices waiting to be resolved. This article identifies the structural and human dimensions of these challenges in the form of thirteen Policy Imperatives aimed at the creation of modified versions of financial markets to make them more humane and less vulnerable to failure.     

现代企业组织制度中的委托─代理关系

现代企业组织制度中存在一系列委托─代理关系,基于所有权和经营权相分离的委托─代理制既是必要的,有效的,又存在着委托人和代理人的效用函数不同的矛盾。西方管理学家对委托人目标和代理人效用函数的不一致性进行了研究,提出了委托─代理理论。本文简要介绍这一理论,并从对代理人的考核评价和奖惩、实行目标管理、培育企业文化以及建设正常运行的市场四个方面,论述了建立健全激励─约束机制,改善委托─代理关系的途径。     

论马克思的货币拜物教理论——以“华尔街的贪婪”为例

马克思的货币拜物教理论是反思当下金融危机的独特视角。货币拜物教是资本主义社会的总体判断逻辑。货币的本真意义被反向,货币符号被主体化,货币手段被目的化。货币幻象是货币拜物教的极致状态,是货币价值的心理体验和想象。华尔街的贪婪不过是货币拜物教的当下形态,表现为高杠杆率如影随形、金融评级机构不知知所进退、天价的薪酬和奖金以及权力与金钱孽生的贪婪。     

Time series models with asymmetric Laplace innovations

We propose autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models driven by asymmetric Laplace (AL) noise. The AL distribution plays, in the geometric-stable class, the analogous role played by the normal in the alpha-stable class, and has shown promise in the modelling of certain types of financial and engineering data. In the case of an ARMA model we derive the marginal distribution of the process, as well as its bivariate distribution when separated by a finite number of lags. The calculation of exact confidence bands for minimum mean-squared error linear predictors is shown to be straightforward. Conditional maximum likelihood-based inference is advocated, and corresponding asymptotic results are discussed. The models are particularly suited for processes that are skewed, peaked, and leptokurtic, but which appear to have some higher order moments. A case study of a fund of real estate returns reveals that AL noise models tend to deliver a superior fit with substantially less parameters than normal noise counterparts, and provide both a competitive fit and a greater degree of numerical stability with respect to other skewed distributions.     

SCAD惩罚逻辑回归的财务预警模型

作为一种有监督学习算法,逻辑回归(Logistic Regression,LR)已广泛应用于财务危机建模分析,但其潜在地存在过拟合问题。鉴此,提出一种基于平滑削边绝对偏离(Smoothly Clipped Absolute Deviation,SCAD)惩罚逻辑回归的财务预警模型。该模型不仅能很好地解决模型过拟合问题,而且还可以同时实现变量选择和模型系数估计,并提高了模型的解释性。结合沪深股市A股制造业上市公司的财务数据进行实证研究,同时对比一般的L1正则化和L2正则化逻辑回归模型的预警效果进行实证分析,实验结果表明:SCAD惩罚逻辑回归模型具有较好的分类效果和较强的经济解释能力。