Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance,Risks and Repercussions for Africa

Computable general equilibrium models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. There is, however, increasing discomfort with the use of these models, especially in Africa. This article demonstrates that the results of several such studies of the impact of trade reforms in Africa differ drastically in terms of both magnitude and direction, failing to take account of key features of African economies. It also outlines potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggests pitfalls to be avoided.     

After the Paris Declaration: Taking on the Issue of Power

The new approach to assisting developing countries inspired by the Paris Declaration emphasises greater recipient control over the funds provided, thus confining donors’influence to upstream points in the policy process, where political aspects of development co‐operation become more important. Understanding better the role that power plays in the aid relationship will be critical to the implementation of the Declaration. This article shows how the political science literature can inform this set of issues. It argues that an understanding of aspects of power illuminates the challenges involved in transforming relations between donors and recipient governments as well as between governments and civil society organisations.     

农户模型方法在实证分析中的运用——以中国加入WTO后对农户的生产和消费行为影响分析为例

农户模型方法是从微观层次的角度把农户的生产行为和消费行为结合起来,来系统分析各种政策和外界冲击对微观农户的生产、消费、市场供给等行为的影响一个工具。本文从理论和实证的角度对农户模型方法进行介绍,并构建了一个用于分析中国加入WTO对农户生产和消费影响的局部均衡模型。这个模型系统把农户的生产和消费行为结合在一起,而且这个模型也不同于别的模拟模型,它是建立在微观模拟的基础上的。     

从"亲蒋疏共"到"弃蒋联共"——解放战争时期苏联对华政策的演变及其根源

解放战争时期,伴随着国际形势和美、苏、国共三国四方关系的不断变化,苏联的对华政策也处于摇摆不定,不断变化之中。通过对这一时期苏联对华政策从亲蒋疏共到弃蒋联共演变过程的分析,阐明苏联对华政策的实质是由其大国沙文主义、民族利己主义的这一历史根源和对外政策中维护苏联国家安全的现实战略目标所决定的。     

基于新农村社区发展的农民权益保护制度研究

新农村社区发展是和谐社会构建中重要内容,和谐社会的构建在为农村社区发展提供了历史机遇和广阔空间的同时,也在保护农民权益方面提出了更高的要求。保护农民权益是建设农村社区发展的基础和前提,农村社区发展又是保护农民权益的目标和归宿。在我国目前新农村社区发展中,由于集体经济薄弱、保障服务和农民权益保护的制度不完善等问题,使得新农村社区发展受阻。为此,完善根本的法律制度体系,大力促进社区发展,是农民权益保护的基本路径和必然选择。     

Labour Market Policy in the United States, Canada and Sweden: Addressing the Issue of Convergence

'Convergence theorists' suggest that domestic and/or global challenges and pressures are rendering welfare states broadly similar across national boundaries. 'Resilience theorists', in contrast, argue that a range of socio-political factors have allowed states to respond differentially to these pressures and maintain their distinct national social policy approaches. However, both research streams have addressed the 'welfare state' writ large in a multitude of nations and typically relied upon narrow, quantitative budgetary indicators. This study examines qualitative changes to key income security and social service programmes in one central social policy domain – labour market policy – in three nations, the United States, Canada and Sweden. It suggests that there is evidence of some degree of 'convergence' in the broadest sense of the term across these three nations. However, while both the USA and Canada have readily embraced genuinely neo-liberal restructuring, and become increasingly similar over the past two decades in this policy area, Sweden has managed to retain its distinctive social policy approach so far, despite notable changes, developments and trends. It also suggests that the character and direction of change may vary across and within policy domains in a single nation. The conclusion provides a discussion of universality, equality and solidarity, concepts that are commonly employed in accounts of welfare state change.     

我国商业银行流动性过剩的原因及对策研究

2005年以来，我国商业银行“流动性过剩”取代了过去的流动性不足，本文将从商业银行的角度，对银行流动性过剩这一广为受到关注的新问题进行较为系统的分析。首先，简述流动性过剩的含义及当前我国商业银行流动性过剩的具体表现和流动性过剩的不利影响。其次，重点分析流动性过剩的原因，指出持续的贸易顺差和当前我国的货币机制是导致流动性过剩的根本原因，最后从微观、宏观层面和金融监管当局角度提出破解银行流动性过剩的具体举措。     

宽严相济刑事政策之概念分析

作为概念,“宽严相济”有一个从统治方略到刑事政策的转变过程,而当下所说的"宽严相济"指的是一项刑事政策,它有着特定的权力结构背景和理论知识语境。作为对"惩办与宽大相结合"的发展,宽严相济刑事政策具有新的时代内涵,特别是在刑事政策与刑事法律的关系、刑事政策运行方式、保持刑罚适正性等方面都实现了质的飞跃。     

“批对批”策略下关于供应商管理库存机制的一个探讨

本文考虑了一个由单供应商和单采购商构成的两级供应链系统,在供应商采取"批对批"策略下,引入VMI后将对供应链系统以及各渠道成员利益带来的影响.我们发现,渠道权力配置对VMI作为供应链企业间合作机制的有效性存在重要影响.在采购商占主导地位的渠道中,当系统参数满足一定条件时,引入VMI后可以同时降低供应商和采购商总成本,从而VMI可以成为供应商和采购商之间的有效合作机制.但在供应商占主导地位的渠道中,引入VMI必将增加供应商的总成本,此时VMI不是供应商和采购商之间的有效合作机制.     

美国技术创新政策分析及其对中国的启示

本文首先阐述了技术创新对美国经济增长的作用,随后探讨了美国创新政策演变历程及其特征,然后分析了美国创新政策的影响因素,最后,文章为中国今后的努力指明了方向。