A bivariate Bayesian dose‐finding procedure applied to a seamless phase I/II trial in rheumatoid arthritis

We describe a dose escalation procedure for a combined phase I/II clinical trial. The procedure is based on a Bayesian model for the joint distribution of the occurrence of a dose limiting event and of some indicator of efficacy (both considered binary variables), making no assumptions other than monotonicity. Thus, the chances of each outcome are assumed to be non‐decreasing in dose level. We applied the procedure to the design of a placebo‐controlled, sequential trial in rheumatoid arthritis, in each stage of which patients were randomized between placebo and all dose levels that currently appeared safe and non‐futile. On the basis of data from a pilot study, we constructed five different scenarios for the dose–response relationships under which we simulated the trial and assessed the performance of the procedure. The new design appears to have satisfactory operating characteristics and can be adapted to the requirements of a range of trial situations. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

褒贬之间的激烈碰撞--世纪之交由"酷评"鲁迅引发的大讨论述评

世纪之交,鲁迅遭到了葛红兵、王朔和冯骥才等人的"酷评",并由此引发了轰轰烈烈的大讨论.讨论的焦点主要集中在鲁迅的人格和精神、思想家的地位、作品及价值取向等方面.讨论过程中"酷评"者的语言及灵魂表演昭显出其虚无主义的历史观,而鲁迅研究者从不同的角度进行了有力的回应.讨论由于拘泥于"现在",并没有深入到鲁迅的精神深部.     

“银色资源“开发利用与西部大开发

西部大开发中,人才是利用"银色资源"不失为一种既快速又实效的好方法,这既体现了国家为迎接老龄化社会到来所提倡的"老有所为"的精神,又将极大地促进西部大开发的顺利进行.     

论邓小平的义利观──传统义利论的新发展

文作者通过考察邓小平关于以经济建设为中心 ,以“三个有利于”为标准 ,通过“先富带后富”,最终实现共同富裕的思想 ,以及他的关于物质文明与精神文明关系的见解 ,提出了邓小平义利观的命题 ,指出这是颇具东方特色的古老的义利论在新形势下的新发展     

西部农村贫困地区婚姻模式变迁

务工潮兴起后,农村贫困地区形成以务工收入为主的经济结构,外出务工成为村民的主要谋生手段和重要生活方式。这一重大变化导致了村庄婚姻模式的变迁,最明显的就是忽略了传统婚姻习俗,形成一种婚姻程序简单化、结婚快速化和婚姻个人化的新模式。传统婚姻习俗对于婚姻具有积极的正功能,村民在新经济环境下的无奈选择对婚姻关系稳定、姻亲关系建构,乃至于亲密代际关系的建立都造成不利影响。     

高等教育多模式融合论

针对目前大学毕业生就业的困境,通过对高等教育模式单一性的弊病分析,提出只有将专业教育模式、素质教育模式、创业教育模式融合在一起,高校才能培养出适应新时期社会需要的人才的结论。     

论我国矿产资源资本化改革的新思路

我国目前矿产资源管理体制改革主要存在四大问题:一是矿业权市场存在着资金盲目流动的现象;二是矿业权竞价出让存在着炒作资源价格的现象;三是矿业权收益分配存在着理论依据不足、分配关系模糊的现象;四是不少矿山企业将矿区生态治理的包袱甩给政府。解决这些问题的新思路是:破除探矿权的物权所有权属性,将其确认为用益物权;设立发现权,确认发现权价值予以商品化;设立开采权,由矿山企业付费取得;国家征收的资源税应改为环境资源税或资源损失费;国家征收的矿产资源补偿费应改为资源替代费;对国家收取的矿山地质环境恢复保证金进行资本化运作。     

The Social Consequences of Insecure Jobs

Forms of insecure employment have been increasing all over Europe in recent decades. These developments have been welcomed by those who argued that these types of flexible employment would not only foster employment but could also help women, in particular, to positively combine work and family life. This vision was questioned by others who argued that flexible employment could have negative consequences for both occupational prospects and private and family life since it is often associated with greater insecurity and poorer working conditions. Relatively little research has been dedicated to the “social consequences” of insecure employment and its specific implications for work-life reconciliation issues. This paper contributes to this topic by linking research that addresses work-life conflict to the wider body of work dealing with job insecurity. It investigates the consequences of certain employment contracts on private and family life, taking into account information on current family life, future family plans and general well-being. It provides a series of test relating to the extent to which negative consequences in these areas might be attributable to the type of employment contract and how these vary between European countries. Analysis using ESS data from 2004 for western European countries confirms that insecure employment is accompanied by more problematic “social and family” situations. These negative consequences are partly shaped by the specific context provided by the country in question.