预测的哲学思考

通过对预测的历史评述,提出了预测的本质是人类对自然的无知与征服自然欲望的矛盾的外现。它是先于科学发展的,是科学发展的推进器和助产婆,但又受科学发展水平的影响与制约。指出了预测研究的对象是非平衡开放系统,基于Internet智能化预测支持系统是预测研究的重要发展方向。     

试论社会保险统计指标的预测分析

保险基金是社会保障制度的基石。社会保险统计不仅要从静态上和动态上分析社会保险各项指标的发展变化情况 ,而且还要依据一定的科学方法 ,对现象未来的变化规律进行预测 ,从而确保社会保险制度的顺利实现。本文探讨了社会保险统计指标的预测方法、应用范围和应用中应注意的问题。     

Impact of Reseller's Forecasting Accuracy on Channel Member Performance

This article studies a three‐layer supply chain where a manufacturer sells a product through a reseller who then relies on its own salesperson to sell to the end market. The reseller has superior capability in demand forecasting relative to the manufacturer. We explore the main trade‐offs between the risk‐reduction effect and the information–asymmetry–aggravation effect of the improved forecasting accuracy. We show that under the optimal wholesale price contract, both the manufacturer and the reseller are always better off as the reseller's forecasting accuracy improves. Nevertheless, under the menu of two‐part tariffs, the manufacturer prefers the reseller to be either uninformed or perfectly informed about the market condition. We further find that the improved forecasting accuracy is beneficial for the reseller if its current forecasting system is either very poor or very good.     

基于自相关理论的GM(1,1)和GM(1,N)联合预测

通过引入自相关分析，将GM（1，1）与GM（1，N）两者的优点有机结合，运用GM（1，1）预测模型所需的数据量，达到GM（1，N）预测模型所具有的预测精度，减少灰色模型的预测误差。     

广义递归方差倒数组合预测方法研究

在递归等权组合预测方法（ＲＥＷ法）￣［１］和递归方差倒数组合预测方法（ＲＶＲＷ法）￣［２］的思路基础上，以方差的幂函数倒数构造组合权重，进一步提出了广义递归方差倒数组合预测方法（ＧｅｎｅｒａｌｉｚｅｄＲｅｃｕｒｓｉｖｅＶａｒｉａｎｃｅＲｅｃｉｐｒｏｃａｌＷｅｉｇｈｔｉｎｇ，即ＧＲＶＲＷ法），给出了有关的迭代计算方法。该方法更一般地体现了以预测精度作为组合权重依据的思想，将ＲＥＷ法和ＲＶＲＷ法概括为其特殊情况，实例表明，ＧＲＶＲＷ法可以明显地提高预测精度。     

宋元话本预测术与社会生活论略

对神秘预测术之狂热信仰,是宋元话本的一大特点。作品中之人物,小至衣食住行、送往迎来,大至家族兴衰、朝代荣枯、军国大事,都无不以之为指针。这一现象出现的社会根源一是此类信仰在民间的广泛流布;二是统治者的倾心膜拜,皇帝及上层官吏甚至还常常把它当成操纵政治军事运作的工具,作为官吏遴选任免之根据,甚至连皇权传承储君之决定也以此为准的。这些术数及极一世之盛的以预测为旨归的巫术鬼神信仰的负面影响,常常导致民财之耗蠹,吏治之变乱,民命之残害等。     

折扣系数法在建立预测模型中的应用

本文针对不同观测点对预测值的不同影响,采用折扣系数法探讨了用折扣最小二乘法和折扣最小一乘法建立预测模型的方法以及用折扣系数法建立组合预测模型的方法。本文的方法不仅适合于一般趋势预测模型的建立,也可推广到一般回归预测模型的建立。这对于提高预测模型的预测精度有着重要的意义。     

通货膨胀预警系统探讨及实证分析

通货膨胀并不仅仅是物价现象和货币现象,而是诸多因素影响的综合经济现象,应从相关的经济指标体系来综合评价。通过综合指标评价法计算综合指数来评价通货膨胀,并以“灯区”分类来标明其区间,最后以福建为例来具体测算通货膨胀的幅度。     

我国城市人口合理规模的系统预测研究

本文运用系统工程中的可能-满意度法对我国城市的合理人口规模进行了预测研究,建立了包含经济水平、社会生活、资源水平、生态环境和实力需求五大方面、11个条目、2 5个因素和 44个变量的系统模型,并根据不同的情况采用不同的因素并合规则,得出了在一个目标时间点上的城市合理人口规模及其所依赖的条件,最后通过应用实例,验证了本文方法的有效性。     

Bayesian Inventory Management with Potential Change‐Points in Demand

We consider the inventory management problem of a firm reacting to potential change points in demand, which we define as known epochs at which the demand distribution may (or may not) abruptly change. Motivating examples include global news events (e.g., the 9/11 terrorist attacks), local events (e.g., the opening of a nearby attraction), or internal events (e.g., a product redesign). In the periods following such a potential change point in demand, a manager is torn between using a possibly obsolete demand model estimated from a long data history and using a model estimated from a short, recent history. We formulate a Bayesian inventory problem just after a potential change point. We pursue heuristic policies coupled with cost lower bounds, including a new lower bounding approach to non‐perishable Bayesian inventory problems that relaxes the dependence between physical demand and demand signals and that can be applied for a broad set of belief and demand distributions. Our numerical studies reveal small gaps between the costs implied by our heuristic solutions and our lower bounds. We also provide analytical and numerical sensitivity results suggesting that a manager worried about downside profit risk should err on the side of underestimating demand at a potential change point.