Introducing a Phobia Program into a Community Mental Health Center

No abstract available for this article.     

Predicting infectious disease outbreak risk via migratory waterfowl vectors

The spread of an emerging infectious disease is a major public health threat. Given the uncertainties associated with vector-borne diseases, in terms of vector dynamics and disease transmission, it is critical to develop statistical models that address how and when such an infectious disease could spread throughout a region such as the USA. This paper considers a spatio-temporal statistical model for how an infectious disease could be carried into the USA by migratory waterfowl vectors during their seasonal migration and, ultimately, the risk of transmission of such a disease to domestic fowl. Modeling spatio-temporal data of this type is inherently difficult given the uncertainty associated with observations, complexity of the dynamics, high dimensionality of the underlying process, and the presence of excessive zeros. In particular, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the waterfowl migration are developed by way of a two-tiered functional temporal and spatial dimension reduction procedure that captures spatial and seasonal trends, as well as regional dynamics. Furthermore, the model relates the migration to a population of poultry farms that are known to be susceptible to such diseases, and is one of the possible avenues toward transmission to domestic poultry and humans. The result is a predictive distribution of those counties containing poultry farms that are at the greatest risk of having the infectious disease infiltrate their flocks assuming that the migratory population was infected. The model naturally fits into the hierarchical Bayesian framework.     

福建省高校五人制足球开展研究

通过对福建省开展五人制足球较成熟的4所高校的调查,分析五人制足球运动在福建高校开展的意义、状况。在此基础上,提出了一些建议与设想,明确了应该在福建省各个高校内积极开展与推广五人制足球,最终推动大众足球运动的普及与发展的意见。     

试论民族地区数字图书馆建设的意义

数字图书馆是信息时代的产物,是图书馆发展历史上的一次深刻革命。数字图书馆不仅代表着图书馆发展的最新方向,而且为文献信息的开发与利用提供了新的机遇。民族地区的数字图书馆建设是民族地区全面建设小康社会、适应信息社会以及进一步开发民族文化资源的迫切需要。     

"兴边富民行动"的意义

兴边富民行动是根据党中央的精神,为配合西部大开发战略,加快边境地区经济社会发展,由国家民委倡导发起的、于2000年初启动的一项边境开发工程。兴边富民行动得到了党中央、国务院的高度重视和充分肯定。兴边富民行动成就喜人,已成为边境地区经济社会发展的加速器和催化剂。兴边富民行动,对于富民、兴边、强国、睦邻,巩固祖国的万里边疆,具有非常重要的意义。     

信仰变异与民族特征--卡力岗回族民族特征浅议

化隆卡力岗山区的藏族由于改奉了伊斯兰教而随了回族,因此其民族特征发生了根本性的交化,使他们重新确立了以伊斯兰文化为主导的价值取向和终极目标,形成了新的思维方式、行为规范、生活方式和风俗习惯,支撑着这个民族生活大厦的过去、现在和未来,而伊斯兰文化则成为他们赖以共同奋斗的精神纽带。     

可行能力与农民工的福利状况评价

基于辽宁省沈阳市农民工调查数据,应用森的可行能力理论和模糊数学方法对农民工的福利状况进行整体评价。结果发现,农民工福利水平的总模糊指数为0.365,处于较低水平。分指标看,健康状况方面的福利状况处于较高水平,居住环境和精神感受方面的福利状况处于中间水平,其它功能性指标的福利水平较低。在影响农民工福利的主要因素中,工作环境和防护性保障的改善对提升农民工福利影响最大。运用OLS回归模型对农民工的福利状况进行扩展分析,发现农民工群体内部存在较强的异质性,并且不同特征的农民工群体福利水平相差很大。     

Imposing and Testing for Shape Restrictions in Flexible Parametric Models

In many economic models, theory restricts the shape of functions, such as monotonicity or curvature conditions. This article reviews and presents a framework for constrained estimation and inference to test for shape conditions in parametric models. We show that “regional” shape-restricting estimators have important advantages in terms of model fit and flexibility (as opposed to standard “local” or “global” shape-restricting estimators). In our empirical illustration, this is the first article to impose and test for all shape restrictions required by economic theory simultaneously in the “Berndt and Wood” data. We find that this dataset is consistent with “duality theory,” whereas previous studies have found violations of economic theory. We discuss policy consequences for key parameters, such as whether energy and capital are complements or substitutes.     

On asymptotic distribution of prediction in functional linear regression

There has been substantial recent attention on problems involving a functional linear regression model with scalar response. Among them, there have been few works dealing with asymptotic distribution of prediction in functional linear regression models. In recent literature, the centeral limit theorem for prediction has been discussed, but the proof and conditions under which the random bias terms for a fixed predictor converge to zero have been ignored so that the impact of these terms on the convergence of the prediction has not been well understood. Clarifying the proof and conditions under which the bias terms converge to zero, we show that the asymptotic distribution of the prediction is normal. Furthermore, we have derived those results related to other terms that already obtained by others, under milder conditions. Finally, we conduct a simulation study to investigate performance of the asymptotic distribution under various parameter settings.