Symmetrical design for symmetrical global sensitivity analysis of model output

Symmetrical global sensitivity analysis (SGSA) can help practitioners focusing on the symmetrical terms of inputs whose uncertainties have an impact on the model output, which allows reducing the complexity of the model. However, there remains the challenging problem of finding an efficient method to get symmetrical global sensitivity indices (SGSI) when the functional form of the symmetrical terms is unknown, including numerical and non-parametric situations. In this study, we propose a novel sampling plan, called symmetrical design, for SGSA. As a preliminary experiment for model feature extracting, such plan offers the virtue of run-size economy due to its closure respective to the given group. Using the design, we give estimation methods of SGSI as well as their asymptotic properties respectively for numerical model and non-parametrical model directly by the model outputs, and further propose a significance test for SGSI in non-parametric situation. A case study for a benchmark of GSA and a real data analysis show the effectiveness of the proposed design.     

原产地多元化视角下的地方产业集群升级研究

地方产业集群升级是区域经济发展的重要研究主题,由于中国特别是东部地区产业集群具有"天生全球化"特质,基于价值链的集群升级理论在适用性上存在局限。本文以原产地多元化为切入点,依据产业集群嵌入全球价值链的程度,对其通过原产地多元化实现升级的途径进行探讨,并结合案例分析加以验证。进而提出基于原产地多元化实现地方产业集群升级的主要内容和政策建议,以期为现实的产业集群发展和区域经济政策制定提供启示。     

与国际行政法的产生有关的几个基本问题——基于全球化、全球治理的视角

全球治理的提出源于全球化的推动,而全球治理的提出及实践则使国际行政法的产生、形成成为可能。具体而言,全球公民社会的兴起与国际非政府组织的发展是国际行政法产生的两个现实驱动因素。国际行政法的产生路径可总结为"自下而上"和"自上而下"的路径。国际行政法具有区别于国内行政法的若干明显特征,国际层面相比国内层面的很多特殊性也使得国际行政法的体系化发展面临诸多挑战。这些问题虽然不能忽视,但它们也并非不可克服。虽然国际行政法不如国内行政法成熟,但是如能改进合法性,便能够将超国家机构的全球治理职能发挥得更好。全球治理语境下国际行政法体系的产生、形成是一种历史的必然趋势。     

关注利益相关者与实现民营外贸企业成功转型的关系研究

入世后,我国民营外贸企业得到了迅猛的发展,目前已基本完成了"量"的积累,进入了全面转型和提升"质"的阶段。民营外贸企业要突破当前的发展困境,必须关注企业的内外部利益相关者,只有得到他们的充分理解与大力支持,才能成功实现企业的转型。     

The Environmental Risks of Incomplete Globalisation

As the liberal optimism of the long 1990s has faded into a world of growing inequality and resurging nationalism, there is less certainty about the prospects of economic convergence and global integration. Beyond the formidable human cost of maintaining a divided world, the possibility of incomplete globalisation also gives rise to a number of environmental risks. While environmental political theory generally sees strength in localism, history rather shows that a robust world trade system is crucial to offset local resource scarcities and that cosmopolitan norms of solidarity are essential for helping communities to rebuild after environmental catastrophe. In relation to climate change, statist thinking has led to a focus on non-scalable technologies and a silent acceptance of chronic poverty abroad as a way of avoiding a climate emergency. Contrary to such views, this paper argues that accelerating the transition to a fully integrated high-energy planet may more effectively mitigate Anthropocene risks.     

Did small and medium enterprises maintain better jobs during the early years of the recession? Job quality multidimensional evidence from Spain

While the literature has indeed confirmed a general tendency linking small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to a dynamic of greater job creation, there is little available evidence on what has happened to job quality since the financial crisis. Through a representative sample of 5311 employees in 2008 (first year of job destruction) and 4925 employees in 2010 (last year for which data were available), and using a two-stage structural equation model, this article empirically analyses the multidimensional determinants of job quality, by enterprise-size class, in Spain. The research has revealed three main results. First, job quality in Spain improved in all enterprises, regardless of their size, during the early years of the recession. Second, the greatest improvements were found in SMEs. Although job quality was already better in SMEs than in large enterprises in 2008, the differences between them subsequently widened. Third, this accelerated divergence was explained by the following dimensions: working conditions, work intensity, health and safety at work, and work–life balance. These dimensions were much more positive in SMEs. Employment-related public policy should therefore focus more specifically on SMEs. There are two reasons for this. First, despite the recession, SMEs have shown themselves to be key factors in the explanation of job quality. Second, by making changes to their value generation model, they could continue to drive the creation of better quality jobs.     

Optimal cut-off for rare events and unbalanced misclassification costs

This paper develops a method for handling two-class classification problems with highly unbalanced class sizes and misclassification costs. When the class sizes are highly unbalanced and the minority class represents a rare event, conventional classification methods tend to strongly favour the majority class, resulting in very low detection of the minority class. A method is proposed to determine the optimal cut-off for asymmetric misclassification costs and for unbalanced class sizes. Monte Carlo simulations show that this proposal performs better than the method based on the notion of classification accuracy. Finally, the proposed method is applied to empirical data on Italian small and medium enterprises to classify them into default and non-default groups.     

On selecting the best population

This paper deals with the problem of selecting the “best” population from a given number of populations in a decision theoretic framework. The class of selection rules considered is based on a suitable partition of the sample space. A selection rule is given which is shown to have certain optimum properties among the selection rules in the given class for a mal rules are known.     

农业产业化龙头企业可持续发展战略研究——基于郑州市农业龙头企业发展的分析

农业产业化龙头企业发展到现在,迫切需要建立起自己的发展战略体系,以指导企业未来的经营与发展,使企业更好地适应越来越严峻的竞争形势。通过对郑州市农业龙头企业可持续发展问题的分析,提出我国农业产业化龙头企业可持续发展的战略。     

A comparison of social work education across South Africa and Japan in relation to the Global Standards for Social Work Education and Training

Sakaguchi H, Sewpaul V. A comparison of social work education across South Africa and Japan in relation to the Global Standards for Social Work Education and Training Int J Soc Welfare 2011: 20: 192–202 © 2009 The Author(s), International Journal of Social Welfare © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. This article draws on a one‐year study visit to the University of KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa, interviews with field supervisors and students in Japan and reviews of the national frameworks of education in Japan and in South Africa. In doing so, the authors identify the similarities and differences in social work education across the two countries and they explore some of the historical and socio‐cultural factors that might account for the differences. There are some identifiable peculiarities in social work education in Japan, especially with the coalescing of care work and social work education. The lack of differentiation between care work and social work makes it difficult to narrow the scope of social work education and practice. National social work standards have been approved in South Africa and regulatory frameworks for social work education and practice have been long accepted, thus rendering ‘social work’ a protected title and a profession that is more entrenched compared with social work in Japan. The codes of ethics in Japan and South Africa are discussed with specific reference to their control functions in South Africa. The article concludes by discussing these comparisons in relation to the Global Standards for Social Work Education.