Determining factors leading affiliates to transfer from an individual accounts pension scheme to a pay-as-you-go pension scheme: Evidence from Argentina

Prior to the recent implementation of the Argentine Integrated Social Security System (SIPA — Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino ), the 2007 reform represented the first major change in Argentina's old-age social security system since 1994. For the first time, workers contributing to the private defined-contribution individual accounts scheme were able to choose freely to move over to the public pay-as-you-go (PAYG) scheme. This study is an attempt to analyse the special characteristics of those who opted for transfer to the public PAYG scheme and to discover whether the behaviour of these individuals is in line with that of a "simulated worker" attempting to optimize income. The analysis includes an estimate of the probability that individuals with certain characteristics will transfer.     

试论苏北新四军文艺活动的影响

1940年10月至1945年8月,苏北抗日根据地新四军文艺工作者在继承传统文化的基础上,积极开展文学、音乐、美术创作和戏剧演出、歌咏等文艺活动,既传播了新文化,宣传了抗日,也为军队和地方培养了大批文艺人才,进一步促进了抗日根据地文化的发展。     

进退有道:吴澄的人生选择

吴澄是元代著名理学家,以往学者更多关注的是吴澄的理学成就,而对吴澄的人生经历重视、研究不够。吴澄生于宋末,在元初隐居乡间近三十年后,虽三次出仕,但又都很快辞官归隐,这种人生选择是耐人寻味的,从中可以看到吴澄的志趣及其思想,看到一个深受儒家思想影响的知识分子在易代之际的思考和实践。研究吴澄的人生选择,不仅有助于深化对吴澄的认识,丰富对元代文人心态的了解,同时也可以增加对传统文人行为逻辑的理解     

A Bayesian piecewise exponential phase II design for monitoring a time-to-event endpoint

A robust Bayesian design is presented for a single-arm phase II trial with an early stopping rule to monitor a time to event endpoint. The assumed model is a piecewise exponential distribution with non-informative gamma priors on the hazard parameters in subintervals of a fixed follow up interval. As an additional comparator, we also define and evaluate a version of the design based on an assumed Weibull distribution. Except for the assumed models, the piecewise exponential and Weibull model based designs are identical to an established design that assumes an exponential event time distribution with an inverse gamma prior on the mean event time. The three designs are compared by simulation under several log-logistic and Weibull distributions having different shape parameters, and for different monitoring schedules. The simulations show that, compared to the exponential inverse gamma model based design, the piecewise exponential design has substantially better performance, with much higher probabilities of correctly stopping the trial early, and shorter and less variable trial duration, when the assumed median event time is unacceptably low. Compared to the Weibull model based design, the piecewise exponential design does a much better job of maintaining small incorrect stopping probabilities in cases where the true median survival time is desirably large.     

"百足之虫,死而不僵"辨析

成语"百足之虫,死而不僵"的"僵",目前有两种解释.本文从成语的出处及语言调查两方面,对两种解释进行了考察,认为符合原意的解释是"仆倒".     

个人信息保护视阈下的行政处罚决定公开规制路径探究

修订后的《行政处罚法》增加了行政处罚决定公开的规定,缓解了行政处罚决定公开无具体法律依据的尴尬局面。行政处罚决定公开制度的实施导致多方利害关系失衡,其中最为突出的是处罚决定公开与个人信息保护的关系。究其根本在于制度衔接不畅与法律规定滞后。文章从制度设计目的出发,结合个人信息权益保护实践,探讨如何有效解决行政处罚决定公开制度的权利(力)冲突、规则之弊等现实问题。引入比例原则,以相对人个人信息权益保障来确定个性化公开标准,化解行政处罚决定公开与个人信息保护的冲突与矛盾。     

关于我国古代经济重心南移的研究与思考

经济重心南移是我国历史发展的一个重大事件 ,也是迄今经济地理格局唯一的一次巨大变迁 ,具有划时代的历史意义和深远影响。从上世纪 30年代开始 ,学术界对这一牵一发而动全身的问题进行了讨论 ,从而使经济史研究进一步立体化 ,拓展出新天地。但在许多重要问题上如 :何时形成、何时南移、为何南移等众说纷纭。如何时完成南移 ,就有从魏晋到南宋差距千年的 9种观点。在许多概念、关键词、客观标准等方面还存在着误区和混乱。而且迄今还没有一部全程的、全面系统的专著予以总结。本文对此做了综述与分析 ,提出了一些个人见解。     

8O年代以来工业设计的发展趋势

国际现代主义的设计风格是和工业化大生产相适应的,它在重视功能的同时,也应使设计与社会、自然环境和民族文化相结合.工业设计的最终目标是实现"人-社会-环境"的和谐,据此,今后工业设计将出现四大趋势(1)单纯化的设计(2)仿生学设计(3)绿色设计(4)个性化设计.这种趋势也说明了设计必须回归自然.     

温柔的慈悲——论蒋捷词独特的艺术魅力

生活在宋末元初的蒋捷,流浪隐居,入元后终生不仕,抱节而终。他的词是对特定时代背景下的人的生存困境的思考,是选择漂泊还是流浪的问题。追逐理想与生计艰难的矛盾使他在感叹生命与时间的不可知中,表现出一种独立的人格和慈悲的生命观。他的词不能简单地归为姜派或是辛派,恰恰是他的兼收并蓄,不拘一格,使他的词在南宋末年的词坛中独树一帜,尤其是抒情小词在清丽中富有情趣,甚至有了由南追北的风向。     

构筑诚信经济体系

诚信是我国的传统美德。构筑诚信经济体系是打造诚信经济的历史选择,诚信经济体系包括构筑诚信政府、诚信经济组织和诚信经济人,这是一个相互连接相互制约的完整链条。