从历史理解到价值建构--论文学史家的一般素质

任何一种原生态的文学史本体 ,唯有经过带有特定价值目标和取向原则的文学史主体 ,亦即文学史家的选择 ,并被置于某种思想规范和文学史构架之中 ,才能显示出自身的意义和价值。文学史研究首先要求文学史家们德识兼备 ,实事求是 ,纪史以实 ,同时还应具备跨学科、多层次的知识体系 ,只有这样才能为文学史建构一种具有开放性的研究途径和解释系统 ,进而推动文学史研究和著述范型的不断更新     

Missing data and forecasting in multivariate time series: An application of the common components dynamic linear model

Summary The paper deals with missing data and forecasting problems in multivariate time series making use of the Common Components Dynamic Linear Model (DLMCC), presented in Quintana (1985), and West and Harrison (1989). Some results are presented and discussed: exploiting the correlation between series, estimated by the DLMCC, the paper shows as it is possible to update state vector posterior distributions for the unobserved series. This is realized on the base of the updating of the observed series state vectors, for which the usual Kalman filter equations can be applied. An application concerning some Italian private consumption series provides an example of the model capabilities.     

世界历史性的个人主体:当代教育的目的

当代教育的本质是主体性教育 ,它以弘扬人的主体性为要旨。但人类交往格局的变化 ,使这种具有主体性的人不是单子式的 ,而要走向世界历史性的存在。培养世界历史性的个人主体是教育目的的当代选择     

Sampling Strategies for Toxic Air Contaminants

Annual concentrations of toxic air contaminants are of primary concern from the perspective of chronic human exposure assessment and risk analysis. Despite recent advances in air quality monitoring technology, resource and technical constraints often impose limitations on the availability of a sufficient number of ambient concentration measurements for performing environmental risk analysis. Therefore, sample size limitations, representativeness of data, and uncertainties in the estimated annual mean concentration must be examined before performing quantitative risk analysis. In this paper, we discuss several factors that need to be considered in designing field-sampling programs for toxic air contaminants and in verifying compliance with environmental regulations. Specifically, we examine the behavior of SO2, TSP, and CO data as surrogates for toxic air contaminants and as examples of point source, area source, and line source-dominated pollutants, respectively, from the standpoint of sampling design. We demonstrate the use of bootstrap resampling method and normal theory in estimating the annual mean concentration and its 95% confidence bounds from limited sampling data, and illustrate the application of operating characteristic (OC) curves to determine optimum sample size and other sampling strategies. We also outline a statistical procedure, based on a one-sided t-test, that utilizes the sampled concentration data for evaluating whether a sampling site is compliance with relevant ambient guideline concentrations for toxic air contaminants.     

Optimal sampling for repeated binary measurements

The authors consider the optimal design of sampling schedules for binary sequence data. They propose an approach which allows a variety of goals to be reflected in the utility function by including deterministic sampling cost, a term related to prediction, and if relevant, a term related to learning about a treatment effect To this end, they use a nonparametric probability model relying on a minimal number of assumptions. They show how their assumption of partial exchangeability for the binary sequence of data allows the sampling distribution to be written as a mixture of homogeneous Markov chains of order k. The implementation follows the approach of Quintana & Müller (2004), which uses a Dirichlet process prior for the mixture.     

中国哲学史写作相关问题的讨论述评

自“中国哲学”学科产生以来 ,有关该学科的一些根本性的问题一直有所争议 ,迄今未获定论。这些问题主要涉及到中国哲学的“合法性”、中国哲学史料的选择、中国哲学史的写作方法、哲学史与思想史的分别等内容。本文就有关这些问题发表的不同意见作一总结并略加评论。     

论新诗(1917～1949)历史发展的分期

文章着眼于新诗自身发展的内在规定性 ,并结合社会历史发展对文学发生的影响 ,通过对新诗流派嬗变轨迹的综合把握 ,考察了诗人群体的兴衰、诗歌体式的更迭、创作方法的演变等新诗特质 ,确立了新诗发展过程中几个重要的分水岭 ,从而把新诗 (1917～ 194 9)的历史划分为四个发展时期 ,并分别就每一个时期的主体诗潮特征予以简要的论述     

从两个“历史决议”看中国共产党政治民主的发展

对两个“历史决议”的研究,一直是学术界关注的焦点。文章试图从政治学的视角,对两个“历史决议”的文本进行一个全新的解读,通过对两个“历史决议”形成过程和内容的比较,勾勒出中国共产党政治民主的发展历程,揭示出政治民主作为一个特定历史概念所表现出来的民主基本原则的共性与不同时期、不同社会、不同制度下的个性特征。     

Model Diagnostics for Remote Access Regression Servers

To protect public-use microdata, one approach is not to allow users access to the microdata. Instead, users submit analyses to a remote computer that reports back basic output from the fitted model, such as coefficients and standard errors. To be most useful, this remote server also should provide some way for users to check the fit of their models, without disclosing actual data values. This paper discusses regression diagnostics for remote servers. The proposal is to release synthetic diagnostics—i.e. simulated values of residuals and dependent and independent variables–constructed to mimic the relationships among the real-data residuals and independent variables. Using simulations, it is shown that the proposed synthetic diagnostics can reveal model inadequacies without substantial increase in the risk of disclosures. This approach also can be used to develop remote server diagnostics for generalized linear models.     

从分笔交易数据透视中国债券市场流动性

采用分笔交易数据,用相对买卖价差分析我国债券市场流动性,可以得出如下结论:各期限国债流动性差异不大,短期和长期国债流动性相对较好;国债买卖价差最小,可转债累计深度最大;债券市场流动性和波动性特征之间存在紧密的内在联系。