世界广告历史分期刍议

世界广告历史发展应分为四个时期:1841年以前的古代广告或原始广告时期;1841年-1920年的近代广告或印刷媒介大众化时期;1920年-20世纪70年代末的现代广告或电子媒介时代;20世纪80年代以后的当代广告或网络媒介时代。其划分应以世界重大广告事件、传播科技和媒体的发展为依据。     

谈新课程标准下历史资源的使用问题

新课程标准对历史资源的开发提出了很高的要求。因此,如何开发和利用好历史资源服务于我们的素质教育,这是每个历史教师面临的共同问题。     

历史剧题材的审美特性

历史剧的题材具有一定的特殊性,戏剧性是它的主要审美特点。这首先表现在时代矛盾的聚焦性,戏剧性的历史时代、转折的历史时期其特点是矛盾的多重性与聚焦性,往往是国家民族或群体于内忧外患之中,这一共性特点是历史剧作家在题材选择时不谋而合的艺术追求;其次是事件冲突的激变性,即历史事件能够构成对历史人物的严峻考验,并能引起人物关系的迅速变化。历史剧的题材是历史性与当代性的统一,而且还具有非世俗性的特点。但是,为使历史剧适于观众的欣赏水平,历史剧的题材还必须具有通俗性,因而,它是非世俗性与通俗性的统一。     

死亡变奏曲——布勒特·哈特短篇小说中的死亡主题研究

通过考察布勒特·哈特短篇小说中的死亡形态、主题及其哲学意义,揭示19世纪美国西部在“西进运动”“淘金热”等历史时期普世价值观的嬗变,探讨死亡的哲学存在意义,对于社会体系和行为方式的影响,指出哈特作品中的死亡观是意识形态下的必然产物,亦是在作者建构下的特殊形式,关注死亡,即关注人与自然及社会的关系。     

如何“历史” 怎样“小说”——谈谈我的历史小说研究兼及治学有关问题与方法

历史小说研究虽是个人化的学术实践活动,但它在一定程度上也反映了新时期以来当代历史小说批评和研究的总体情景及发展脉络。历史小说研究大体经历了从批评到理论再到综合三个阶段或曰三种研究方式。如何“历史”,怎样“小说”,这是一个相当复杂且人言人殊的问题。回顾和总结过往走过的道路,感受和体会最深的,是需要正视并处理好“创新与规范”“寻找‘根据地’与超越‘根据地’”“批评与研究”三方面关系。这不仅对历史小说,其治学有关问题与方法,对更为宏大的当代文学研究也具有重要的借鉴意义。     

中国两级光学学会历史关系探析(1970-1999)

探析1970—1999年间中国光学学会和地方（省级）光学学会的历史关系,是一项填补空白的工作。早于中国光学学会成立的6个地方光学学会承担了相应的社会职能,中国光学学会成立后纳入并指导支持地方学会,形成中国科协领导下发展合作的新模式;地方光学学会先行成立的14个专委会发挥了同行聚合功能,而中国光学学会专委会的起点高、影响深、学术交流多,两级学会均设立对方未设立的专委会,体现出聚合的互补特性;地方光学学会的国内学术活动起步早,中国光学学会则一直为地方联合学术活动提供支持和保障,在推动全国范围内光学学术交流的繁荣上起到不可替代的作用。两级学会的历史关系不是简单的“业务指导”,而是呈现出“成立建设中交融、聚合功能上互补、学术交流间共进”的关系。     

论党内监督工作的历史经验、问题呈现及发展策略

党内的监督是一个系统工程,党在长期的监督实践特别是十八大以来党内监督的实践探索中得出一些经验:党内监督必须积极发展党内民主、要大力完善党内监督之核心、努力加强对权力的监督和制约、实行党内外监督相结合.当前党内监督实践中存在着监督制度操作性不强、党内监督的合力没有形成等问题.要从进一步强化监督主体的能动作用、改革与完善党内监督领导体制、加强党内监督制度建设、进一步理顺纪检机关的领导体制,进一步强化纪检机关的监督职能等方面进行改进,以形成良好的政治生态,着力提升党内监督的科学化水平.     

Leveraging historical data into oncology development programs: Two case studies of phase 2 Bayesian augmented control trial designs

Leveraging historical data into the design and analysis of phase 2 randomized controlled trials can improve efficiency of drug development programs. Such approaches can reduce sample size without loss of power. Potential issues arise when the current control arm is inconsistent with historical data, which may lead to biased estimates of treatment efficacy, loss of power, or inflated type 1 error. Consideration as to how to borrow historical information is important, and in particular, adjustment for prognostic factors should be considered. This paper will illustrate two motivating case studies of oncology Bayesian augmented control (BAC) trials. In the first example, a glioblastoma study, an informative prior was used for the control arm hazard rate. Sample size savings were 15% to 20% by using a BAC design. In the second example, a pancreatic cancer study, a hierarchical model borrowing method was used, which enabled the extent of borrowing to be determined by consistency of observed study data with historical studies. Supporting Bayesian analyses also adjusted for prognostic factors. Incorporating historical data via Bayesian trial design can provide sample size savings, reduce study duration, and enable a more scientific approach to development of novel therapies by avoiding excess recruitment to a control arm. Various sensitivity analyses are necessary to interpret results. Current industry efforts for data transparency have meaningful implications for access to patient‐level historical data, which, while not critical, is helpful to adjust for potential imbalances in prognostic factors.     

归顺与叛逆：清水江-沅江地区杨公神的多重叙事模式解读

文章是对湘黔桂渝4省杨公信仰现象的一个再阐释,是对过往研究的反思和回顾.清水江-沅江地区各地杨公信仰差异极大,4省各地有关杨公神的神圣性来源的历史叙事复杂多变.杨公历史叙事是中国西南边疆形成史中地方社会文化变迁的一个反映.     

Turbulent dynamics in a Xviith century population

A reconstruction of the population of the Pays de Caux (1589–1700) yields the time series of a fertility behavior indicator, the overall Coale index If. In spite of the noisy appearance of its evolution, the trajectory of If looks ordered, as if it were confined alternatively to two given zones, looping in each of them for a while, then suddenly jumping from the low one to the higher one, or slowly whirling down from the high to the low one.

An attempt is made to explain this general temporal structure by using a simulation model based on the autoregulation model (the so‐called European Marriage Pattern), putting into play a choice of the spouse function, a fertility function, modalities of marriage and remarriage, under the environmental forcing of the reconstructed mortality conditions.

The correspondence between reconstruction and simulation turns out to be quite good, not only for the population size or the Coale index, but also for the marriage series, quite independently of the reconstructioa

A second simulation with simulated mortality conditions shows a bifurcation point: as the mean frequency of crisis increases, the state of the system leaves the lower level and concentrates more and more in the higher level.

Thus, not only does the autoregulator model appear validated by empirical data, but its bi‐modal structure is revealed, depicting the dynamic response of a traditional community both to the environment and to the endogeneous demographic process.