归顺与叛逆：清水江-沅江地区杨公神的多重叙事模式解读

文章是对湘黔桂渝4省杨公信仰现象的一个再阐释,是对过往研究的反思和回顾.清水江-沅江地区各地杨公信仰差异极大,4省各地有关杨公神的神圣性来源的历史叙事复杂多变.杨公历史叙事是中国西南边疆形成史中地方社会文化变迁的一个反映.     

Turbulent dynamics in a Xviith century population

A reconstruction of the population of the Pays de Caux (1589–1700) yields the time series of a fertility behavior indicator, the overall Coale index If. In spite of the noisy appearance of its evolution, the trajectory of If looks ordered, as if it were confined alternatively to two given zones, looping in each of them for a while, then suddenly jumping from the low one to the higher one, or slowly whirling down from the high to the low one.

An attempt is made to explain this general temporal structure by using a simulation model based on the autoregulation model (the so‐called European Marriage Pattern), putting into play a choice of the spouse function, a fertility function, modalities of marriage and remarriage, under the environmental forcing of the reconstructed mortality conditions.

The correspondence between reconstruction and simulation turns out to be quite good, not only for the population size or the Coale index, but also for the marriage series, quite independently of the reconstructioa

A second simulation with simulated mortality conditions shows a bifurcation point: as the mean frequency of crisis increases, the state of the system leaves the lower level and concentrates more and more in the higher level.

Thus, not only does the autoregulator model appear validated by empirical data, but its bi‐modal structure is revealed, depicting the dynamic response of a traditional community both to the environment and to the endogeneous demographic process.     

中国金融业如何面对混合经营的挑战

20世纪80年代初,在“金融创新”和“金融自由化”浪潮的冲击下,金融管制逐步放松,金融分业的界限又开始逐渐模糊,金融业务相互交叉、相互渗透的程度开始日益加深。中国从1993年开始实施银行证券、保险分业经营。但是,最近国内市场发展和金融经济全球化的趋势对分业经营模式直接提出了挑战。从长远发展趋势看,混合经营是中国金融业的发展方向。     

元明戏曲舞台上的伍子胥形象及其审美特征

元明之际有关伍子胥题材或涉及伍子胥故事及评价的历史剧有十五种之多 ,这在中国戏曲史上是一个特例。而关于伍子胥每一阶段的形象塑造 ,都蕴含了鲜明的时代特征 ,以及广大民众对这一形象道德的、审美的评价。本文旨在通过对元明戏曲舞台上伍子胥形象及其审美特征的研究 ,进一步探讨其中所蕴含的丰富的思想文化内涵     

托马斯·怀亚特宫廷诗的女性意识与性别书写

欧美学界通常盛赞文艺复兴的性别形象,怀亚特诗歌被视为男性气概的英国典型。怀亚特的赞美诗和讽喻诗却呈现出截然不同的女性意识和性别书写。前者内敛的特征体现了宗教改革和君主王权对男性主题的权力制约,后者揶揄的态度反映了历史主体和女性视角对性别意象的政治隐喻。从这两个层面解读怀亚特宫廷诗歌,揭示其男性书写的女性意识和政治生活,从而进一步探讨其性别观念的历史意义。     

Disclosure Risk and Disclosure Avoidance for Microdata

Under given concrete exogenous conditions, the fraction of identifiable records in a microdata file without positive identifiers such as name and address is estimated. The effect of possible noise in the data, as well as the sample property of microdata files, is taken into account. Using real microdata files, it is shown that there is no risk of disclosure if the information content of characteristics known to the investigator (additional knowledge) is limited. Files with additional knowledge of large information content yield a high risk of disclosure. This can be eliminated only by massive modifications of the data records, which, however, involve large biases for complex statistical evaluations. In this case, the requirement for privacy protection and high-quality data perhaps may be fulfilled only if the linkage of such files with extensive additional knowledge is prevented by appropriate organizational and legal restrictions.     

马克思、恩格斯的报刊活动及其启示

马克思、恩格斯是马克思主义的创始人，也是杰出的报刊活动家。报刊活动在马克思、恩格斯的一生中占有极其重要的地位。他们的报刊活动为我们留下了宝贵的经验，特别是他们在报刊活动中表现出的严肃认真的科学态度，值得报刊工作者继承和发扬光大，也是做好报刊工作的宝贵财富。     

关于汉唐文化的几个问题

汉唐文化历史成就博大恢宏,具有开创性、集大成性、包容性、辐射性诸多特点,与外部世界交流交往广泛,影响深远,为我们提供了多方面的历史启示,是长安学最基本、最重要的研究对象之一。     

Reconstruction and Deconstruction of the Foundation of South Australia as a Nineteenth-Century Strategic Planning Process and How it Might Compare with Current Planning Practice

ABSTRACT

This article does three things. It reconstructs the narrative about the foundation of South Australia in the 1830s as a strategic planning process. It then deconstructs that analysis to explore the issues it addresses and the outcomes. Finally, it reviews the South Australian experience to see if there are valid comparisons to be made with current practice and what lessons it might offer in that regard. In doing that it briefly reviews one present methodology of strategic planning most akin to that followed in South Australia, and one strategic planning exercise that could learn from it.     

Exploring unobserved heterogeneity in perinatal and neonatal mortality risks: The case of an Italian sharecropping community, 1900–39

Previous researchers have found that traditional determinants explain only a limited part of the variation in perinatal and infant mortality at the family level. In the study reported in this paper, we explored the factors that make the perinatal/neonatal death risk more heterogeneous across families. We estimated logistic regressions with cluster random effects at the maternal level, using data from the Italian village of Granarolo from 1900 to 1939. We estimated the effects of selected predictors on perinatal/neonatal mortality and unexplained inter-family variation. We found that non-rural skilled and lower-skilled workers experienced higher perinatal and neonatal mortality risks. Unexplained heterogeneity at the maternal level was lower for women living in sharecropper families than for those in landless labourer and non-rural worker families. Unexplained perinatal and neonatal mortality components were also due to socio-economic differences and were not necessarily related only to maternal biological features or shared genetic frailty.