基于EM填补和加权秩和比的电力系统黑启动决策方法

电力系统大停电后需要安全可靠的黑启动方案进行电力快速恢复,如何从众多黑启动方案中进行优选是一个重要课题。不同于以往完全信息情况下的研究,本文对电力系统黑启动方案评估问题的研究是基于不完全信息情况下进行的,提出一种EM填补和加权秩和比相结合的黑启动决策方法。首先,采用EM算法填补黑启动方案评价空值,得到完备的黑启动评价矩阵;然后,计算指标间的差异性,利用差异性权重法得到各个指标的权重;最后,采用加权秩和比法确定每个方案的评分值,实现黑启动方案的分级和完全排序。本文方法基于广东电网黑启动数据集进行实验验证,实验结果表明,本文方法可以对不完全信息情况下的黑启动方案进行优劣排序,且具有较高准确性。     

财务欺诈风险特征筛选框架的建立和应用

本文从金融科技大数据出发,以人工智能的吉布斯随机搜索(Gibbs Sampling)算法为工具,在大数据框架下建立了针对公司财务欺诈风险的特征因子筛选的一般处理方法与特征提取推断原理,并结合上市公司的财务报表数据进行实证分析,结合从2017年1月到2018年12月证监会对上市公司财务报表信息披露违规的数据样本,筛选出刻画财务欺诈的特征因子并进行了验证测试,支持财务欺诈的识别。本文提出的框架和模型方法可以加强和提升对上市公司财务欺诈风险的识别能力,并实现对公司财务在欺诈方面的探测与预测(Detecting and Predicting)功能。     

Do maternal health problems influence child's worrying status? Evidence from the British Cohort Study

Conventional methods apply symmetric prior distributions such as a normal distribution or a Laplace distribution for regression coefficients, which may be suitable for median regression and exhibit no robustness to outliers. This work develops a quantile regression on linear panel data model without heterogeneity from a Bayesian point of view, i.e. upon a location-scale mixture representation of the asymmetric Laplace error distribution, and provides how the posterior distribution is summarized using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Applying this approach to the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS) data, it finds that a different maternal health problem has different influence on child's worrying status at different quantiles. In addition, applying stochastic search variable selection for maternal health problems to the 1970 BCS data, it finds that maternal nervous breakdown, among the 25 maternal health problems, contributes most to influence the child's worrying status.     

A conceptual hybrid framework for industrial process improvement: integrating Taguchi methods,Shainin System and Six Sigma

Design of Experiments (DoE) has evolved as powerful industrial statistics tool for managing and improving processes in diverse industries. The three broad approaches of DoE in practice: classical or traditional methods, Taguchi methods and Shainin System (SS), have their merits and demerits for a extensive industrial experimentation. Nonetheless, the power of these DoE approach is not fully harnessed in established process improvement frameworks in industries. On the other side, Six Sigma DMAIC is a well-accepted methodology for improving process capability through focus on customer’s requirement (CTQ). The use of DoE in traditional DMAIC framework is limited to quantification of influence factors on CTQ. To offer a contribution to this paucity, this paper proposed a conceptual Six Sigma/DOE hybrid framework aiming to integrate SS, Taguchi methods and Six Sigma DMAIC for process improvement in complex industry environment. A case on improving DF generation process in shock absorber assembly was developed to validate the effectiveness of the framework for intricate problem-solving.     

基于遗传算法和TRIZ的产品服务系统优化设计方法

针对产品服务系统方案优化设计问题,分析了系统方案设计过程中主要影响因素,基于遗传算法和TRIZ理论提 出了产品服务系统方案优化设计方法。该方法可以优化产品服务系统的方案设计,并通过理想化程度值定量判定最优 方案设计。以污水处理设备为例,应用该方法获取产品服务系统最优的方案设计,并与其它方案进行对比,验证了该方 法的有效性。实际应用证明该方法不仅可以对产品服务系统方案设计的理想化程度进行定量的判定,还可以实现对系 统方案设计的全局最优搜索。     

矩形件排样的流程和算法设计

针对人工矩形件排样效率低、耗时长,且不能保证得到板材利用率为最优方案的问题,通过研究人工矩形件排样 的过程,提出了一种下料系统流程和矩形件排样的启发式与遗传相结合的算法。研究结果表明：所设计的下料系统流程 能够充分利用原材料库和余料库,且避免生成更多的余料;通过文中设计的启发式和遗传相结合的矩形件排样算法,能 够快速搜索出近似总体最优的排样方案。该设计方案能够提高板材利用率,同时减少更多余料的产生。     

Robust Coordinate Descent Algorithm Robust Solution Path for High-dimensional Sparse Regression Modeling

The L₁-type regularization provides a useful tool for variable selection in high-dimensional regression modeling. Various algorithms have been proposed to solve optimization problems for L₁-type regularization. Especially the coordinate descent algorithm has been shown to be effective in sparse regression modeling. Although the algorithm shows a remarkable performance to solve optimization problems for L₁-type regularization, it suffers from outliers, since the procedure is based on the inner product of predictor variables and partial residuals obtained from a non-robust manner. To overcome this drawback, we propose a robust coordinate descent algorithm, especially focusing on the high-dimensional regression modeling based on the principal components space. We show that the proposed robust algorithm converges to the minimum value of its objective function. Monte Carlo experiments and real data analysis are conducted to examine the efficiency of the proposed robust algorithm. We observe that our robust coordinate descent algorithm effectively performs for the high-dimensional regression modeling even in the presence of outliers.