Communicating uncertainty in national security intelligence: Expert and nonexpert interpretations of and preferences for verbal and numeric formats

Organizations in several domains including national security intelligence communicate judgments under uncertainty using verbal probabilities (e.g., likely) instead of numeric probabilities (e.g., 75% chance), despite research indicating that the former have variable meanings across individuals. In the intelligence domain, uncertainty is also communicated using terms such as low, moderate, or high to describe the analyst's confidence level. However, little research has examined how intelligence professionals interpret these terms and whether they prefer them to numeric uncertainty quantifiers. In two experiments (N = 481 and 624, respectively), uncertainty communication preferences of expert (n = 41 intelligence analysts in Experiment 1) and nonexpert intelligence consumers were elicited. We examined which format participants judged to be more informative and simpler to process. We further tested whether participants treated verbal probability and confidence terms as independent constructs and whether participants provided coherent numeric probability translations of verbal probabilities. Results showed that although most nonexperts favored the numeric format, experts were about equally split, and most participants in both samples regarded the numeric format as more informative. Experts and nonexperts consistently conflated probability and confidence. For instance, confidence intervals inferred from verbal confidence terms had a greater effect on the location of the estimate than the width of the estimate, contrary to normative expectation. Approximately one-fourth of experts and over one-half of nonexperts provided incoherent numeric probability translations for the terms likely and unlikely when the elicitation of best estimates and lower and upper bounds were briefly spaced by intervening tasks.     

人工智能企业的权力生产及其政治影响

人类社会漫长的政治发展进程中充满了权力生产与权力转移现象。随着人工智能时代的到来,作为人工智能技术关键成分的数据与算法,逐渐成为权力生产的新要素,谁掌握更充分的数据和更先进的算法,谁就可能拥有更多或更大的权力,技术的赋权效应得以彰显。技术赋权可能催生新权力主体,权力转移现象可能再度发生。人工智能企业既因为在数据与算法方面拥有独特的技术优势而内生出部分权力,也因为为国家治理提供技术辅助而另外获得部分权力,可能成为与国家相媲美的新权力中心。人工智能企业的权力增长,可能促使国家治理权力结构从传统的单中心结构变为多中心结构;与此同时,由于人工智能时代的国家治理越来越倚重人工智能企业提供算法支持,而算法可能出现失误,加之“算法黑箱”和卸责链条的存在,因此人工智能企业的权力增长还可能消解权责同体的基本政治规则,引发权责分离现象或者说国家治理问责难题。新权力中心在多大概率上会出现,既取决于国家与人工智能企业的技术实力对比,也取决于国家治理对人工智能企业的技术依赖程度。应对人工智能时代的权责分离现象或者说问责难题,除了促使人工智能企业高度自律,还需要国家匹配备案与试点制、随机抽查检验制、服务积分制等制...     

AI驱动的产品环境效益感知对消费者购买意愿的影响——基于控制错觉理论视角

随着绿色消费崛起和环保技术进步,AI驱动的产品环境效益改善日益成为企业应对市场竞争并满足消费需求的重要举措。基于控制错觉理论视角,构建了一个有调节的中介效应模型,并运用实验研究方法检验了AI驱动的产品环境效益感知对消费者购买意愿的影响机制。结果发现：相较于非AI驱动的静态环境效益感知,AI驱动的自主环境效益感知更容易提高消费者购买意愿;环境心理所有权在产品环境效益感知与消费者购买意愿的关系中发挥了中介作用;环境控制点调节了产品环境效益感知与环境心理所有权的关系,并且这种效果随着结果与预期一致性的高低呈现显著差异。因此,企业应强化消费者的产品环境效益感知,激发消费者环境心理所有权,不断提高产品的环境控制水平,以提升消费者购买意愿。     

Social intelligence as moderator in the relation between narcissism and aggression in at-risk adolescents

This study examined the moderating role of social intelligence (SI) in the associations of grandiose and vulnerable narcissism (VN) with peer-reported overt and relational aggression (RA). The sample consisted of 286 adolescents aged 15 to 19 recruited from a residential program for youth who have dropped out of school. Results showed that whereas grandiose narcissism (GN) was related to both forms of aggression, VN was related to neither overt nor RA. However, SI moderated the relation between VN and both forms of aggression such that SI works as either a risk or protective factor for adolescents with higher levels of narcissism depending on the subdimensions of SI and aggression. The findings indicate that SI may play a role in how adolescent peers perceive the behavior of relatively narcissistic individuals.     

应用情绪智力理论优化课堂教学的研究

文章简述了情绪智力理论的发展及其对教育的启示,从培养教师和学生的情绪智力方面进行分析,研究如何应用情绪智力理论优化课堂教学。     

高校图书馆开展企业竞争情报服务新探

本文从竞争情报的涵义出发,研究高校图书馆开展企业竞争情报服务的必要性,以及要开展这项业务高校图书馆所应采取的措施,最后阐述了高校图书馆在开展企业竞争情报服务中应该遵循的原则。     

智能网联汽车体系结构与关键技术

智能网联汽车（Intelligent connected vehicles,ICV）是无人驾驶技术的核心载体,产业链长,市场巨大,吸引了国内外众多汽车厂商和信息企业都纷纷投向ICV的研发与测试,部分ICV车型已进入量产阶段,新的概念车型也陆续提出。针对新型ICV的发展现状与关键技术,从ICV智能化和网联化两个维度对ICV中涉及到的相关技术进行分析,进一步从信息处理的感知层、决策层、控制层3个层次构建了ICV发展过程中的关键技术体系结构。研究表明,车辆环境感知和通信技术技术涵盖自车状态和外部环境,短程通信技术（DSRC）、机器视觉和激光雷达技术是实现车辆环境信息采集功能完善的关键;车路协同系统涉及车—车通信、车—路通信、车—云通信,协同智能交通系统、云平台和大数据技术是车路协同技术的关键;驾驶辅助技术包括自适应巡航控制系统、车道偏离/避免系统、碰撞预警/避免系统等8个构成,这是辅助驾驶、部分自动驾驶和有条件的自动驾驶3个智能化阶段中的关键;具有自主学习、自我决策的人工智能技术和信息安全技术也是智能网联汽车的关键技术,在此基础上,还应该实现多种技术间的相互支撑与融合,克服关键技术协同障碍,才能实现ICV的市场推广与普及应用。     

从兴民权到开民智——梁启超的两次湖南之行

梁启超在1897年放弃上海《时务报》的工作前往湖南,是从时局的角度出发,抱有推动湖南独立维新实验的目的,但是在时务学堂时期,他逐步由政治上的争独立、兴民权的理想,转入教育领域开启民智的实践,并培养了唐才常、蔡锷在内的一大批新式人才.1922年,梁启超作为联省自治理论的提倡者再次来到湖南,在长沙的几场演讲却多涉及新文化运动和国民性问题,继续为近现代湖南的民智启蒙做出努力.     

Emotional intelligence and counterproductive work behavior: The mediating role of organizational climate

ABSTRACT

This research investigates the impact of emotional intelligence on counterproductive work behavior through examining the mediating role of organizational climate. Data were collected from 304 administrative employees working in nine private universities in Amman, Jordan. Validity and reliability tests were conducted using factor analysis and Cronbach’s alpha. Research hypotheses were tested through multiple regression analysis and structural equation modeling methods. Outcomes of the analysis indicate that there is a significant impact on the relationship between emotional intelligence and counterproductive work behavior. The research proposes several recommendations for managers to apply specifically in private universities, and/or in any type of sector in Amman- Jordan. It also laid the groundwork for future research.     

鲁迅道德人格的现代性内涵

鲁迅作为中国现代公共知识分子的杰出代表,以其独特的思想和性格向现当代中国知识分子昭示了道德人格建设的方向。作为在中国现代思想文化史上特立独行的悍将,高举"立人"和"张灵明"两面大旗,用科学理性的工具向貌似仁慈和善的中国传统文化从事着破坏性的建设工作,体现了一个真正的爱国者的博大胸怀和高瞻远瞩的思想家风范。