信仰变异与民族特征--卡力岗回族民族特征浅议

化隆卡力岗山区的藏族由于改奉了伊斯兰教而随了回族,因此其民族特征发生了根本性的交化,使他们重新确立了以伊斯兰文化为主导的价值取向和终极目标,形成了新的思维方式、行为规范、生活方式和风俗习惯,支撑着这个民族生活大厦的过去、现在和未来,而伊斯兰文化则成为他们赖以共同奋斗的精神纽带。     

中国居民代际收入流动性的变化趋势及影响机制研究

基于1989~2015年共计10轮CHNS数据,本文采用代际收入弹性和代际收入秩关联系数双重测度指标对我国居民代际收入流动性进行了测算,发现代际收入流动性在1991~2004年期间基本保持稳定,2004年以后呈现出不断上升的变化趋势。基于收入分组视角的研究发现,各收入组2004年以后代际收入阶层固化程度均有所降低,但高收入组和低收入组的固化程度远高于其他各组,中等收入群体是目前我国保持较高代际收入流动性的主要动力来源。从城乡差异视角看,受大规模农村劳动力向城镇流动的影响,2000年后农村家庭的代际流动性显著提升,且持续高于城市居民的代际流动性。进一步,基于人力资本分析框架对我国代际收入传递机制进行了探究,发现父亲的非教育因素在代际收入传递中起到主导作用。受整体社会制度环境不断改善的积极影响,2004年以后非教育传递机制不断减弱,对代际收入流动性的提升起到较大助推作用;而受高等教育扩张政策的影响,教育因素在2004年左右一定程度上削弱了代际收入流动性。     

单指标非参数期权定价——改进的非参数定价方法

本文建立一种改进的非参数期权定价模型,称为单指标非参数期权定价模型。相比现有非参数回归期权定价模型是期权价格关于各个因素的多元回归函数,本模型通过变量变换把期权价格多个因素指标转换为一个综合变量——单指标,得到期权价格关于单指标的一元非参数回归方程。改进的模型实现了多元非参数期权定价模型的降维和简化了模型计算;还通过多个期限期权的单指标组合解决了非参数估计的样本数量问题;以及通过期限平滑解决了现有非参数定价模型中的日历效应问题。选取上证50ETF期权数据实证分析表明,无论是样本内的估计结果还是样本外的预测结果都比传统的Black-Scholes模型、半参数Black-Scholes模型和多元非参数回归期权定价模型估计效果有提高。     

气候变化背景下的知识产权国际保护之争

在气候变化与知识产权的问题上,厄瓜多尔等发展中国家在2013年6月至2014年10月的TRIPS理事会议中阐述了修订TRIPS协议的意见以求能够最大限度地获取无害环境技术及其产品,但美国等发达国家坚决拒绝修正TRIPS协议,认为非知识产权因素是妨碍发展中国家应对气候变化的主要原因。双方产生分歧的原因不仅在于对各自国家利益的诉求,也在于TRIPS协议和无害环境技术自身因素。考虑到人权保护的需要和当前处于知识积累阶段的现状,应当以技术转让重于技术创新的方式适应和减缓气候变化,修订TRIPS协议以帮助发展中国家获取无害环境技术及其产品。     

Empirical likelihood based detection procedure for change point in mean residual life functions under random censorship

The mean residual life (MRL) function is one of the basic parameters of interest in survival analysis that describes the expected remaining time of an individual after a certain age. The study of changes in the MRL function is practical and interesting because it may help us to identify some factors such as age and gender that may influence the remaining lifetimes of patients after receiving a certain surgery. In this paper, we propose a detection procedure based on the empirical likelihood for the changes in MRL functions with right censored data. Two real examples are also given: Veterans' administration lung cancer study and Stanford heart transplant to illustrate the detecting procedure. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国文学塑造中狼意象的演变及其文化内涵变迁

在中国传统文学中,狼意象往往是充满负性情感的阴险、狡诈的代名词。21世纪以来,关于狼性的文章作品重新审视了狼意象的基本特征。梳理并勾勒狼意象及其文化内涵的演变,可以更为明晰地辨识出“狼”形象在文学、史学、社会学等文化中所扮演角色的变迁历程,从而改变中国文化中狼意象在较长一段历史时间上的单纯文化内涵,使之重新恢复其多元象征意义。     

Issues in Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves in the Presence of Unknown Structural Change

Many articles which have estimated models with forward looking expectations have reported that the magnitude of the coefficients of the expectations term is very large when compared with the effects coming from past dynamics. This has sometimes been regarded as implausible and led to the feeling that the expectations coefficient is biased upwards. A relatively general argument that has been advanced is that the bias could be due to structural changes in the means of the variables entering the structural equation. An alternative explanation is that the bias comes from weak instruments. In this article, we investigate the issue of upward bias in the estimated coefficients of the expectations variable based on a model where we can see what causes the breaks and how to control for them. We conclude that weak instruments are the most likely cause of any bias and note that structural change can affect the quality of instruments. We also look at some empirical work in Castle et al. (2014 Castle, J. L., Doornik, J. A., Hendry, D. F., Nymoen, R. (2014). Misspecification testing: non-invariance of expectations models of inflation. Econometric Reviews 33:5–6, 553–574, doi:10.1080/07474938.2013.825137[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) on the new Kaynesian Phillips curve (NYPC) in the Euro Area and U.S. assessing whether the smaller coefficient on expectations that Castle et al. (2014 Castle, J. L., Doornik, J. A., Hendry, D. F., Nymoen, R. (2014). Misspecification testing: non-invariance of expectations models of inflation. Econometric Reviews 33:5–6, 553–574, doi:10.1080/07474938.2013.825137[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) highlight is due to structural change. Our conclusion is that it is not. Instead it comes from their addition of variables to the NKPC. After allowing for the fact that there are weak instruments in the estimated re-specified model, it would seem that the forward coefficient estimate is actually quite high rather than low.     

论审判对象的变更及其控制

在强调诉审分离的近现代诉讼构造下,无论法官还是控诉方,其权力均被设定了合理的界限与范围,体现一种分权制衡的机理,显示一种对被告人防御权利的保障的理路。审判对象发生合理的变更,主要基于两种理路,一是“起诉变更主义”,二是“审判对象狭义论”,进而表现为内容、性质及方式上若干类型的变更。面对审判对象变更,利益受影响最大者是被告人,故而要将审判对象变更控制在合理限度内与正当程序中,有效防范突袭性审判的发生。我国现行审判对象变更实践缺乏合理的控制机制,并常常表现为法院与检察院的一种“沟通”,当务之急是要完善审判对象变更程序,对审判对象变更实行正当性控制。     

“婚变”的背后——浅析《墙头马上》中的悲剧因素

一直以来人们都认为《墙头马上》为一部爱情喜剧,通过对此剧中的悲剧性因素悲剧性行动和悲剧性环境的分析,认为此剧并不是仅仅停留在爱情喜剧的层面,而是一部具有社会性婚姻问题的戏剧.     

扩大中间阶层是构建和谐社会的必要条件

中间阶层实质上是一个经济地位、政治地位和社会地位等各方面介于上层精英阶层和下层大众阶层之间的、具有中等社会经济地位的阶层和群体的集合.扩大中间阶层是构建和谐社会的必要条件.通过运用财政税收政策,大力发展教育和科技,鼓励创业,建立顺畅的社会流动机制等方式壮大我国的中间阶层对促进构建社会主义和谐社会有重要的作用.