论19世纪末年的社会心态

自戊戌变法后期清朝政府守旧派掌控朝政始的19世纪末年,趋新的社会风气转为沉闷;特别是义和团运动时期,守旧派将其仇新、排外的情绪推向极至,直接导引了普通民众的冷漠与无知、新式知识分子的压抑与彷徨心态。     

中韩端午节祭之关联性论略

中韩两国的民间风俗节日中,都有“端午节”。从内容与形式来看,二者存在着较多的差异性,即是各具民族性与地域性。但是,二者的关联性也是非常清楚的。从风行的时代范围来说,中国式的端午节较早,而韩国式的端午节较迟。从活动内容来说,韩国式的端午节仍有许多方面是延续了中国式端午节的实质内容的。     

“最后一个浪漫派”心态论——沈从文心态与创作生态的关联研究

沈从文关于“最后一个浪漫派”这一自白所蕴涵的生态意义、心态内涵以及心态与创作生态的关联研究,是建构“生态批评与沈从文研究”框架的必要环节。     

Statistical modeling of selected aspects of the childbearing process with application to world fertility survey countries∗

The childbearing process should be monitored in developing countries experiencing high population growth rates and high levels of maternal and infant mortality. A mathematical model for estimation of certain aspects of the childbearing process, which requires only data on age‐specific fertility rates, is developed. Synthetic maternal childbearing indices, namely, mean ages at first and last birth, length of reproductive life span, inter‐birth spacing, and proportion of childless women, in addition to the well‐known mean age at childbearing, for the WFS countries are obtained using the proposed model. The indices are free from age truncation effects, and, under certain assumptions, provide information about a cohort's completed fertility before the women stop reproducing. The effects of women's residence and education on fertility are also examined.     

Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations

An important objective of empirical research on treatment response is to provide decision makers with information useful in choosing treatments. This paper studies minimax‐regret treatment choice using the sample data generated by a classical randomized experiment. Consider a utilitarian social planner who must choose among the feasible statistical treatment rules, these being functions that map the sample data and observed covariates of population members into a treatment allocation. If the planner knew the population distribution of treatment response, the optimal treatment rule would maximize mean welfare conditional on all observed covariates. The appropriate use of covariate information is a more subtle matter when only sample data on treatment response are available. I consider the class of conditional empirical success rules; that is, rules assigning persons to treatments that yield the best experimental outcomes conditional on alternative subsets of the observed covariates. I derive a closed‐form bound on the maximum regret of any such rule. Comparison of the bounds for rules that condition on smaller and larger subsets of the covariates yields sufficient sample sizes for productive use of covariate information. When the available sample size exceeds the sufficiency boundary, a planner can be certain that conditioning treatment choice on more covariates is preferable (in terms of minimax regret) to conditioning on fewer covariates.     

低渗透油藏不稳定渗流的近似解法

低渗透油藏的开发应该同时考虑启动压力梯度和应力敏感。目前考虑两者的不稳定渗流数学模型解法十分繁琐,主要原因是控制方程具有强烈的非线性,同时流体流动边界并非恒定不变。为了简化计算,利用油藏压力分布近似表达式,研究得到同时考虑这2个因素的低速非线性不稳定渗流压力分布特征;根据物质平衡原理,利用牛顿迭代方法计算得到了定产量、变产量和定流压生产情况下动边界运动规律以及井产量的变化规律。计算分析表明,启动压力梯度增加了地层的渗流阻力,介质变形削弱了近井地带地层的导流能力,使得地层能量不易被释放出来,两者均增大了油藏的开发难度。     

论《失乐园》的末三卷

史诗《失乐园》的最后三卷是史诗不可分离的组成部分.史诗主人公亚当夏娃在前九卷里因屈服于撒旦的诱惑而堕落并失去伊甸园,但在最后三卷里获得以“谦卑”“忍耐”和“信仰”为核心的“内在精神”之“英雄知识”的装备,成长为弥尔顿始终倡导的“基督式英雄”,以怀着“心中远为快乐的乐园”,迎向孤寂艰难的未来.由此,史诗的最后三卷为堕落世界里那些已经堕落或可能堕落的人树立了“英雄精神追寻”的范式.     

"王世贞晚年定论说"考辩

王世贞作为"后七子"的领袖,是明代文学史上的关键人物.钱谦益所提出的"王世贞晚年定论"说,说明了王世贞晚年思想的转变,影响颇大.但这种说法是建立在并不完全可信的论据基础之上的.同时,后代文学史一般认为前后七子提倡"文必秦汉,诗必盛唐",坚持食古不化的形式主义文风,也是对他们的片面理解.     

定距删词完形填空再研究

定距删词完形填空作为英语综合能力的测试形式,可以帮助教师及时了解学生学习动态.本研究通过对照实验,验证了不同起止点的定距删词完形填空对于测试而言都是等价的.由此表明教师在设计定距删词完形填空时可以不必预留首尾句,提高测试信度.     

梁启超对戊戌变法的反思--兼评百年来学术界对变法失败原因的考察

梁启超在戊戌变法失败后,在不少论著中深刻反思变法的全过程,提出了许多有别于世人的观点.他认为变法本身没有错,问题的根本在于没有将他们的变法主张贯彻下去,除旧而不布新,变法而不变人,再加上光绪皇帝无权、守旧官僚反对,就无法使变法获得成功.这些看法对梁启超在20世纪初年乃至终身的思想观点都发生了较大的影响.一百多年来,学术界对变法失败的研究也出现了种种不同的观点.