A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.     

Scientific consensus,the law,and same sex parenting outcomes

While the US Supreme Court was considering two related cases involving the constitutionality of same-sex marriage, one major question informing that decision was whether scientific research had achieved consensus regarding how children of same-sex couples fare. Determining the extent of consensus has become a key aspect of how social science evidence and testimony is accepted by the courts. Here, we show how a method of analyzing temporal patterns in citation networks can be used to assess the state of social scientific literature as a means to inform just such a question. Patterns of clustering within these citation networks reveal whether and when consensus arises within a scientific field. We find that the literature on outcomes for children of same-sex parents is marked by scientific consensus that they experience “no differences” compared to children from other parental configurations.     

Towards Uniformly Efficient Trend Estimation Under Weak/Strong Correlation and Non‐stationary Volatility

In this paper, we consider the deterministic trend model where the error process is allowed to be weakly or strongly correlated and subject to non‐stationary volatility. Extant estimators of the trend coefficient are analysed. We find that under heteroskedasticity, the Cochrane–Orcutt‐type estimator (with some initial condition) could be less efficient than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) when the process is highly persistent, whereas it is asymptotically equivalent to OLS when the process is less persistent. An efficient non‐parametrically weighted Cochrane–Orcutt‐type estimator is then proposed. The efficiency is uniform over weak or strong serial correlation and non‐stationary volatility of unknown form. The feasible estimator relies on non‐parametric estimation of the volatility function, and the asymptotic theory is provided. We use the data‐dependent smoothing bandwidth that can automatically adjust for the strength of non‐stationarity in volatilities. The implementation does not require pretesting persistence of the process or specification of non‐stationary volatility. Finite‐sample evaluation via simulations and an empirical application demonstrates the good performance of proposed estimators.     

Identity and integration: The roles of relationship and retention in nonprofit mergers

Prior research suggests that nonprofits are flexible and possess multiple identities, although we know less about how transformative changes, such as mergers, shape nonprofit identity. This qualitative study draws upon in‐depth interviews from 13 nonprofit merger cases to explore factors that influence postmerger identity and integration. In particular, we focus on the roles of organizational similarity and relationships, program and personnel retention, and rebranding. Ultimately, we derive a typology of postmerger integration in nonprofits and suggest that postmerger identity may be classified in terms of absorption, preservation, or creation. Implications for nonprofit leaders are discussed.     

An approximation of logarithmic functions in the regression setting

We consider a method of moments approach for dealing with censoring at zero for data expressed in levels when researchers would like to take logarithms. A Box–Cox transformation is employed. We explore this approach in the context of linear regression where both dependent and independent variables are censored. We contrast this method to two others, (1) dropping records of data containing censored values and (2) assuming normality for censored observations and the residuals in the model. Across the methods considered, where researchers are interested primarily in the slope parameter, estimation bias is consistently reduced using the method of moments approach.     

雄安新区科技企业创新能力评价研究

科技企业是实现科技创新的驱动者和科技成果转化的重要载体,也是推动研究开发的重要参与者,科学评价科技企业创新能力有助于企业自身不断发展壮大。在分析国内外新区科技企业创新驱动发展相关理论研究的基础上,从研发投入、研发基础、研发效益和现代科技四个角度,运用层次分析法构建科技企业创新能力评价系统,并通过实证分析说明评价系统的可靠性;根据评价系统测算出现阶段雄安新区科技企业创新能力,通过与成熟新区科技企业的比较,发现其短板和不足,力图为决策者科学合理评价、管理科技企业创新发展提供有益参考。     

英文影片的中国方言版字幕翻译

2012年3D 版《泰坦尼克号》的华丽上映曾掀起影迷们对它的新一轮热捧。文章就同样备受中国观众喜爱的中国方言版《泰坦尼克号》为案例，结合功能目的论来探寻中国方言版字幕翻译的目的与性质，进而分析、总结英文影片字幕的中国方言版译制活动过程。     

章公祖师佛像跨国追索诉讼国际私法问题研究

从章公祖师佛像跨国追索诉讼主体资格问题切入,分析佛像的法律性质,探讨涉案物权准据法的确定及适用问题。该案原告应由阳春村全体村民担任。涉案佛像属于文物,建议村民在荷兰法院提起原物返还之诉。受案法院应当适用物权冲突法确定准据法,即可能适用中国内地、中国香港或荷兰法律。被告在购买时应当对涉案佛像来源产生合理怀疑,因此不构成“善意”;原告应尽可能搜集证据证明《荷兰民法典》规定的20年消灭时效因起诉而中断。依据《香港货品售卖条例》和中国内地物权法理论与实践,被告均不能取得系争佛像的所有权。     

当代资本主义经济停滞问题:制度结构与治理危机——基于积累的社会结构理论的分析

关于经济停滞问题的探讨是对马克思主义经济危机理论的传承。2008年金融危机爆发十余年,资本主义经济停滞趋于常态化。积累的社会结构理论从资本积累与支撑这一积累的制度环境之间的矛盾出发,发现了主流经济学探讨资本主义经济停滞所忽略的制度性因素。积累的社会结构学派沿着"中间层次"的路径,将2008年金融危机界定为系统性的结构危机,认为新自由主义SSA的失灵是此次经济停滞持续的原因。资本主义经济停滞引发欧美发达资本主义国家的社会治理危机升级,一系列政治、社会和文化危机不断加剧。积累的社会结构理论从微观层面深刻把握了资本主义制度转型的轨迹,但并未深入探讨开展根本的制度变革。在面临百年未有之大变局的时代境遇下,中国在参与全球治理的过程中不断探索并推动世界经济政治新秩序朝着更加公正、合理的方向发展。     

A Graphical Tool for Interpreting Regression Coefficients of Trinomial Logit Models

Multinomial logit (also termed multi-logit) models permit the analysis of the statistical relation between a categorical response variable and a set of explicative variables (called covariates or regressors). Although multinomial logit is widely used in both the social and economic sciences, the interpretation of regression coefficients may be tricky, as the effect of covariates on the probability distribution of the response variable is nonconstant and difficult to quantify. The ternary plots illustrated in this article aim at facilitating the interpretation of regression coefficients and permit the effect of covariates (either singularly or jointly considered) on the probability distribution of the dependent variable to be quantified. Ternary plots can be drawn both for ordered and for unordered categorical dependent variables, when the number of possible outcomes equals three (trinomial response variable); these plots allow not only to represent the covariate effects over the whole parameter space of the dependent variable but also to compare the covariate effects of any given individual profile. The method is illustrated and discussed through analysis of a dataset concerning the transition of master’s graduates of the University of Trento (Italy) from university to employment.