Gibbs sampling for marginal posterior expectations

In earlier work (Gelfand and Smith, 1990 and Gelfand et al, 1990) a sampling based approach using the Gibbs sampler was offered as a means for developing marginal posterior densities for a wide range of Bayesian problems several of which were previously inaccessible. Our purpose here is two-fold. First we flesh out the implementation of this approach for calculation of arbitrary expectations of interest. Secondly we offer comparison with perhaps the most prominent approach for calculating posterior expectations, analytic approximation involving application of the LaPlace method. Several illustrative examples are discussed as well. Clear advantages for the sampling based approach emerge.     

Point-symmetry models and decomposition for collapsed square contingency tables

For square contingency tables with ordered categories, there may be some cases that one wants to analyze them by considering collapsed tables with some adjacent categories combined in the original table. This paper proposes three kinds of new models which have the structure of point-symmetry (PS), quasi point-symmetry and marginal point-symmetry for collapsed square tables. This paper also gives a decomposition of the PS model for collapsed square tables. The father's and his daughter's occupational mobility data are analyzed using new models.     

Generalized additive mixed models

Following the extension from linear mixed models to additive mixed models, extension from generalized linear mixed models to generalized additive mixed models is made, Algorithms are developed to compute the MLE's of the nonlinear effects and the covariance structures based on the penalized marginal likelihood. Convergence of the algorithms and selection of the smooth param¬eters are discussed.     

Dirichlet models for square contingency tables

We consider the square contingency tables which arise when the same method of classification is applied twice. The hypothesis of marginal homogeneity is then relevant! and can be tested by various methods Models are discussed which contain marginal homogeneity as a special case. They include a class based on univariate and bivariate Dirichlet distributions. The question of ordered categories is briefly discussed. Applications are made to data on unaided distance vision.     

马克思劳动价值论与边际效用价值论之比较

比较了马克思劳动价值论与边际效用价值论的异同点.不同之处主要体现在(1)在哲学基础上,前者以马克思主义哲学为指导,后者以主观唯心主义和形而上学为指导;(2)在研究的目的和出发点上,前者是为剩余价值理论奠定基础,为无产阶级革命提供思想武器,后者则是为资产阶级服务;(3)在价值源泉上,前者主张活劳动是价值的惟一源泉,后者却认为效用或最后效用程度是价值的源泉;(4)在价值度量标准上,前者认为是社会必要劳动时间,后者认为是边际效用等等.共性方面体现在(1)两者产生的历史背景大致相同;(2)立足点都是市场经济;(3)在本源上,都属于价值论上的"一元论"等等.同时指出,应当坚持活劳动创造价值的一元论,结合新的社会实践,发展马克思主义劳动价值论.     

Marginal Means/Rates Models for Multiple Type Recurrent Event Data

Recurrent events are frequently observed in biomedical studies, and often more than one type of event is of interest. Follow-up time may be censored due to loss to follow-up or administrative censoring. We propose a class of semi-parametric marginal means/rates models, with a general relative risk form, for assessing the effect of covariates on the censored event processes of interest. We formulate estimating equations for the model parameters, and examine asymptotic properties of the parameter estimators. Finite sample properties of the regression coefficients are examined through simulations. The proposed methods are applied to a retrospective cohort study of risk factors for preschool asthma.     

Comparisons of Test Statistics Arising from Marginal Analyses of Multivariate Survival Data

We investigate the properties of several statistical tests for comparing treatment groups with respect to multivariate survival data, based on the marginal analysis approach introduced by Wei, Lin and Weissfeld [Regression Analysis of multivariate incomplete failure time data by modelling marginal distributians, JASA vol. 84 pp. 1065–1073]. We consider two types of directional tests, based on a constrained maximization and on linear combinations of the unconstrained maximizer of the working likelihood function, and the omnibus test arising from the same working likelihood. The directional tests are members of a larger class of tests, from which an asymptotically optimal test can be found. We compare the asymptotic powers of the tests under general contiguous alternatives for a variety of settings, and also consider the choice of the number of survival times to include in the multivariate outcome. We illustrate the results with simulations and with the results from a clinical trial examining recurring opportunistic infections in persons with HIV.     

基于ELES的我国居民家庭消费结构比较研究

以中国收入分配研究院组织开展的CHIP(中国家庭收入调查)在2014年进行的入户调查数据为样本,在ELES(扩展线性支出系统)模型的基础上,分别比较分析了城镇、农村和流动人口三类家庭对八大类商品和服务的基本消费支出、边际消费倾向和边际储蓄倾向,并针对实证研究结果进一步对优化流动人口家庭消费结构、改革最低工资标准等问题提出建议。     

中国省际资本使用效率测算:1981～2005

采用永续盘存法和最新的数据测算中国31个省份1980年~2005年的建筑和设备资本存量,而后结合各省的GDP数据测得中国各省份1981年~2005年的资本边际产出比。从计算结果看,东部省份资本积累已经相对饱和且在2001年前后开始出现资本边际产出递减的情况;中部省份资本存量水平适中;西部省份资本积累还不足,应继续加大资本投入。     

Exploring quasi Monte Carlo for marginal density approximation

We first review quasi Monte Carlo (QMC) integration for approximating integrals, which we believe is a useful tool often overlooked by statistics researchers. We then present a manually-adaptive extension of QMC for approximating marginal densities when the joint density is known up to a normalization constant. Randomization and a batch-wise approach involving (0,s)-sequences are the cornerstones of our method. By incorporating a variety of graphical diagnostics the method allows the user to adaptively allocate points for joint density function evaluations. Through intelligent allocation of resources to different regions of the marginal space, the method can quickly produce reliable marginal density approximations in moderate dimensions. We demonstrate by examples that adaptive QMC can be a viable alternative to the Metropolis algorithm.