The weighted likelihood

The authors consider a weighted version of the classical likelihood that applies when the need is felt to diminish the role of some of the data in order to trade bias for precision. They propose an axiomatic derivation of the weighted likelihood, for which they show that aspects of classical theory continue to obtain. They suggest a data‐based method of selecting the weights and show that it leads to the James‐Stein estimator in various contexts. They also provide applications.     

Is the Disposition of Constrained Maximization Chosen Rationally?

One of the most important issues in moral philosophy is whether morality can be justified by rationality. The purpose of this study is to examine Gauthier’s moral theory, focusing on the disposition of constrained maximization, which is the main thrust of his project to justify morality rationally. First of all, I shall investigate Gauthier’s assumption and condition for the rationality of the disposition of constrained maximization so as to disclose that the disposition of constrained maximization is not necessarily chosen by rational agents. Then I shall explore his other arguments including ones for the reinterpretation of rationality and the self-critical reflection of rational beings, which can be considered as his further efforts to make the disposition of constrained maximization a rational choice. By exploring them, I shall attempt to indicate that those arguments are not valid so long as he clings to the maximizing conception of rationality and thereby this conception of rationality itself is not enough to provide morality with a basis.     

Likelihood Maximization Using Web-Based Optimization Tools

This article proposes the use of optimization techniques and tools to maximize the likelihood if maximization cannot be easily accomplished with standard statistical software. In such situations, the use of the programming language AMPL with the freely available optimization solvers under the NEOS Server is an attractive alternative to algorithms developed for specific optimization problems in statistics. This article is meant to be a short tutorial introducing statisticians to these methods and tools. We provide an example to illustrate these methods. The necessary files for maximization are included in the Appendix so that the reader can carry out the optimization procedure described.     

基于成本视角透析预防人才流失对策——以广东地区中小企业为例

吸纳人才需要投入成本,同时能够获得人才收益。以广东地区为例,因为成本投入与人才收益的不相符,导致中小企业人才流动现象显著,给中小企业带来了成本耗费加大、劳动生产力降低、企业技术进步受阻、企业形象受损,企业信任度降低等危害。究其原因,是因为缺乏企业文化、体制不健全、商业泄密、企业成本影响等导致了人才流失。因此,中小企业需采取创造适合自身的企业文化、构建多种合理的管理机制等有效措施,留住人才,降低人才吸纳成本,创造较高的人才收益。     

An agent-based random-utility-maximization model to generate social networks with transitivity in geographic space

Stochastic actor-based approaches receive increasing interest in the generation of social networks for simulation in time and space. Existing models however cannot be readily integrated in agent-based models that assume random-utility-maximizing behavior of agents. We propose an agent-based model to generate social networks explicitly in geographic space which is formulated in the random-utility-maximizing (RUM) framework. The proposed model consists of a friendship formation mechanism and a component to simulate social encounters in a population. We show how transitivity can be incorporated in both components and how the model can be estimated based on data of personal networks using likelihood estimation. In an application to the Swiss context, we demonstrate the estimation and ability of the model to reproduce relevant characteristics of networks, such as geographic proximity, attribute similarity (homophily), size of personal networks (degree distribution) and clustering (transitivity). We conclude that the proposed social-network model fits seamlessly in existing large-scale micro-simulation systems which assume RUM behavior of agents.     

女性就业与发展困境的原因探析

就业是妇女获得发展的一个重要方式 ,因为就业的期望以及工作中产生的问题和挑战是刺激人们学习新知识、新技能 ,从而获得发展的重要推动力量。但是 ,经济的、社会的、生理的因素限制了妇女就业以及进行人力资本再投资的机会 ,而且这些因素相互影响 ,相互作用。所以 ,克服妇女就业和发展的障碍需要政府制定政策支持妇女教育和培训 ,防止用人单位在雇用、培训、晋升等环节歧视女性     

How Do Information Ambiguity and Timing of Contextual Information Affect Managers’ Goal Congruence in Making Investment Decisions in Good Times vs. Bad Times?

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and may influence management decisions. This study draws upon research on information bias and ambiguity research to empirically test how information ambiguity and non-financial factors (e.g., interpersonal information) affect managers’ capital budgeting decisions when in good vs. bad times. Ninety-two managers completed two experiments. In Experiment One, the information was presented sequentially. Our results show that without the presence of non-financial factors, managers tend to maximize the firm value. After receiving non-financial factors, a significant number of managers switched to the self-serving option in good times (the gain condition) but stayed with firm-value maximization in bad times (the loss condition). In Experiment Two, the information was presented simultaneously in the presence and absence of ambiguity. We found that in the presence of ambiguity, the information presentation has no impact on managers’ self-serving bias in good times or their firm-value maximization tendency in bad times. Interestingly, we also observed managers’ use of interpersonal information even in the absence of ambiguity.JEL Classification: D8     

从分销到直销：销售渠道关系的经济分析

在制造商主导的供应链中,分销商与制造商合作的程度,即销售渠道关系的强弱在[0,1]内的连续分布,可以看作市场化同企业化的不同组合。文章利用Stackelberg博弈分析了不同渠道关系对渠道产生的经济影响,将分销和直销分别看作[0,1]分布的两个极端情形,进行了重点探讨。在产品没有销售模式倾向的情况下,得出的一般性结论是:直销无论在产量还是价格,无论对制造商、整个渠道还是消费者都将产生积极影响。在理论上为解释渠道中的冲突和直销的成功提供了一个工具。     

Inverse uncertainty quantification of input model parameters for thermal-hydraulics simulations using expectation–maximization under Bayesian framework

Quantification of uncertainties in code responses necessitates knowledge of input model parameter uncertainties. However, nuclear thermal-hydraulics code such as RELAP5 and TRACE do not provide any information on input model parameter uncertainties. Moreover, the input model parameters for physical models in these legacy codes were derived under steady-state flow conditions and hence might not be accurate to use in the analysis of transients without accounting for uncertainties. We present a Bayesian framework to estimate the posterior mode of input model parameters' mean and variance by implementing the iterative expectation–maximization algorithm. For this, we introduce the idea of model parameter multiplier. A log-normal transformation is used to transform the model parameter multiplier to pseudo-parameter. Our analysis is based on two main assumptions on pseudo-parameter. First, a first-order linear relationship is assumed between code responses and pseudo-parameters. Second, the pseudo-parameters are assumed to be normally distributed. The problem is formulated to express the scalar random variable, the difference between experimental result and base (nominal) code-calculated value as a linear combination of pseudo-parameters.     

网络外部性下双零售商竞争的演化博弈分析

运用演化博弈理论,分析了在网络外部性环境下,有限理性的零售商在长期的市场竞争演化中,会偏好选择利润最大化行为还是收入最大化行为的问题.首先,在考虑网络外部性因素下,构建了不对称双零售商竞争的演化博弈动态系统.其次,分析了该动态系统中零售商竞争的演化稳定策略,并研究了产品替代性、网络外部性强度和市场保留价格等因素对零售商演化稳定策略的影响.再次,将模型扩展到混合策略情形,研究了零售商行为偏好的演化稳定性,并分析了市场保留价格对零售商行为偏好演化稳定性的影响.最后,通过数值算例,进一步分析和验证了所取得的理论成果.