宏观经济学教学方法探讨

本文分析宏观经济学的自身特点,并据此提出相应的有效的教学方法。     

Semi-doubly optimal concentric circles fitting with presence of heteroscedasticity

Previous studies focus on homogeneous and isotropic assumptions about the noisy data. Many methods have been developed recently for fitting concentric circles to data. In this paper, these statistical assumptions have been relaxed. To the best of our knowledge, only one iterative method has been recently developed. Due to its complexity, no such algorithm is available to compute the reliable maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Accordingly, we have developed four new methods that outperform the existing methods including the orthogonal distance regression (ODR). We also discuss which of these methods is superior according to the four principles: statistical efficiency, accuracy, robustness, and computational efficiency. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real images have been conducted to validate our findings.     

Relations Between Alphabetized Name Order and Nomination Counts in Peer Nomination Measures

Peer nominations, a central method for measuring peer relationships in developmental research, typically involve asking children or adolescents to choose peers who fit various criteria from an alphabetized roster of classmates or grade‐mates. Although such measures have been used for decades, very little research has investigated the effects of alphabetical name order on the number of nominations received by peers. This study collected peer nominations for 20 items among 607 eighth grade participants in two schools. Regression analyses showed that earlier name order significantly predicted higher nomination counts for eight of the items, and explained over 5 percent of the variance in four affective variables (friendship, acceptance, acquaintanceship, and received liking). Across variables, name order effects were negatively correlated with internal reliability of nominations, implying that order effects may be related to the consensus of the peer group. Name order also had a minimal effect on inter‐correlations among a subset of variables. Implications and concrete recommendations for controlling and reducing name order effects in future research are discussed.     

古籍整理中的辨伪例说

辨伪是古籍整理的重要工作。本文在总结历代学人关于辨伪理论及方法的基础上,以古籍整理实践中的九个典型实例,具体说明辨伪的方法：考证作者的生平事迹,审核作品的思想内容,检验作品的语言风格,查阅历代的相关书目,寻找各种有用的旁证等,以期尽可能恢复古籍原貌。     

Monte Carlo comparison of five exponentiality tests using different entropy estimates

The paper studies five entropy tests of exponentiality using five statistics based on different entropy estimates. Critical values for various sample sizes determined by means of Monte Carlo simulations are presented for each of the test statistics. By simulation, we compare the power of these five tests for various alternatives and sample sizes.     

苏雪林文学批评之比较方法的运用

在苏雪林的文学批评中，比较手法的运用是极为显著且常见的。中国古典文学深厚的积淀，西方文学文化的深刻熏陶，使其比较之法不仅仅涉及到同时期、同流派作家之间的平行比较，更有以古典文学为借鉴的古今比较，及以西方文学为参照的中西比较。这种多层次、多方面的比较，使中国现代文学在苏雪林的评论中处于一个广阔而又立体的环境中，这一方面突显了苏雪林的敏锐观察力，同时也折射出了中国现代文学在中西纵横交错中的独特魅力。     

女性创业动机变迁与自我发展

选取浙江省杭州市20名创业女性为访谈对象的创业动机变迁研究显示,在2005年之前,女性创业动机以"推式动机"为多,而自2006年始,女性创业动机呈现出以"拉式动机"为主的趋势。这种变化主要与女性受教育程度提高、个性更为独立、追求更为自由的发展空间等相关。女性创业动机的变化趋势,在很大程度上反映了女性自我发展正趋向更高的水平。     

“赔礼道歉”的异化与回归

我国《侵权责任法》延续了《民法通则》的规定,将赔礼道歉作为侵权责任承担方式之一种。从赔礼道歉责任承担方式在我国的产生来看,其有一定的历史时代原因;但在现代法的背景之下,该种责任承担方式不仅在理论上争议颇多,而且造成了司法实践中问题重重,其作为一种责任承担方式的合理性值得怀疑,将其从法律责任还原为道德责任实属必要。     

Responding to child deaths: the work of Australia's Victorian Child Death Review Committee

The Victorian Child Death Review Committee (VCDRC) in Australia is a multidisciplinary Ministerial Advisory Committee established to review the deaths of children either currently child protection clients or known to the statutory child protection system. The Committee provides advice about each child death as well as insights into what are the surrounding patterns and issues. Key to this role is examining the contribution of the service sectors to the protection of children and the routine practices that are in place to respond to children and vulnerability. This paper provides a snapshot of the cases referred to the VCDRC and the key messages for practice drawn from them. What emerges is that often the threshold for when statutory child protection services must be involved in child and family matters can be ambiguous and that agreement about intervention, the level and nature of need or risk, and when cumulative harm and neglect require statutory responses are not always shared between agencies. It is clear that the lack of common frameworks about what constitutes child protection intervention challenges services. It is recommended that there be and used agreed definitions and frameworks to ensure shared understandings and collaborative responses across the service and legal systems.     

Assessing the performance of variational methods for mixed logistic regression models

We present a variational estimation method for the mixed logistic regression model. The method is based on a lower bound approximation of the logistic function [Jaakkola, J.S. and Jordan, M.I., 2000, Bayesian parameter estimation via variational methods. Statistics & Computing, 10, 25–37.]. Based on the approximation, an EM algorithm can be derived that results in a considerable simplification of the maximization problem in that it does not require the numerical evaluation of integrals over the random effects. We assess the performance of the variational method for the mixed logistic regression model in a simulation study and an empirical data example, and compare it to Laplace's method. The results indicate that the variational method is a viable choice for estimating the fixed effects of the mixed logistic regression model under the condition that the number of outcomes within each cluster is sufficiently high.