Income vulnerability of rural households in Bangladesh: a comparison between Bayesian and classical methods

The geographical location and the monsoon climate render Bangladesh highly vulnerable to natural hazards, deteriorating the country's socio-economic stability. This study is based on 500 randomly chosen rural households from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey [Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Planning Division, Ministry of Planning, Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, 2006]. The objectives are to estimate the income vulnerability of rural households and to check whether the Bayesian approaches (natural conjugate prior and non-informative prior estimates) have any superiority over the classical (feasible generalized least square (FGLS)) method. The poverty level, measured from the data, is 24%; whereas the vulnerability estimates, using FGLS, natural conjugate prior and non-informative prior are 31%, 69% and 82%, respectively. Vulnerability estimates by the Bayesian natural conjugate prior approach is found to have greater efficiency compared with FGLS and non-informative prior approaches.     

A time series approach to life table construction

This paper deals with the construction of the life table. A discussion of basic facts about the life table is followed by the proposal of a nonstationary, autoregressive model for the life table. The moment structure of the nonstationary, autoregressive model is developed. Some estimation procedures are proposed followed by several examples.     

Estimating the mean of the selected uniform population

Let π_i(i=1,2,…K) be independent U(0,?_i) populations. Let Y_i denote the largest observation based on a random sample of size n from the i-th population. for selecting the best populaton, that is the one associated with the largest ?_i, we consider the natural selection rule, according to which the population corresponding to the largest Y_i is selected. In this paper, the estimation of M. the mean of the selected population is considered. The natural estimator is positively biased. The UMVUE (uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator) of M is derived using the (U,V)-method of Robbins (1987) and its asymptotic distribution is found. We obtain a minimax estimator of M for K≤4 and a class of admissible estimators among those of the form cY_max. For the case K = 2, the UMVUE is improved using the Brewster-Zidek (1974) Technique with respect to the squared error loss function L₁ and the scale-invariant loss function L₂. For the case K = 2, the MSE'S of all the estimators are compared for selected values of n and ρ=?₁/(?₁+?₂).     

Estimation of the Force of Infection from Current Status Data Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Based on sero-prevalence data of rubella, mumps in the UK and varicella in Belgium, we show how the force of infection, the age-specific rate at which susceptible individuals contract infection, can be estimated using generalized linear mixed models (McCulloch & Searle, 2001). Modelling the dependency of the force of infection on age by penalized splines, which involve fixed and random effects, allows us to use generalized linear mixed models techniques to estimate both the cumulative probability of being infected before a given age and the force of infection. Moreover, these models permit an automatic selection of the smoothing parameter. The smoothness of the estimated force of infection can be influenced by the number of knots and the degree of the penalized spline used. To determine these, a different number of knots and different degrees are used and the results are compared to establish this sensitivity. Simulations with a different number of knots and polynomial spline bases of different degrees suggest - for estimating the force of infection from serological data - the use of a quadratic penalized spline based on about 10 knots.     

制约我国农村剩余劳动力转移的因素及对策分析

中国作为一个人口大国 ,农村发展目前面临的最大制约因素就是农村剩余劳动力的大量存在。解决农村剩余劳动力的出路问题 ,是加快农业和农村经济发展 ,多渠道增加农民收入的迫切需要。论述了我国农村剩余劳动力转移的必要性 ,分析了目前制约农村剩余劳动力转移的因素 ,并提出了对策建议。     

语力概念与意义表征

语力的概念可溯源至弗雷格,而对语力论的系统研究则发端于奥斯汀言语行为论的创立.语力概念的创立,填补了语言哲学中的一项空白,但围绕语力与意义的关系问题,塞尔等言语行为论的继承者并未因袭奥斯汀的观点.不过,与其把语力与意义这两个概念对立起来,毋宁将语力视为交际语用意义的组成部分,并作为意义的重要维度加以研究,从而通过对其性质及构成要素等的分析探察,进一步丰富语言哲学对于意义概念的理论表征.     

论农业继续教育驱动力的激发

农业继续教育能否得到发展,直接影响我国农业的发展速度,认真研究农业继续教育驱动力,是解决认识问题的重要途径,是积极开展农业继续教育的基础。为此,本文拟就农业继续教育驱动力的有效激发进行一些初步探讨,提出了推动农业继续教育的基本措施。     

集合论存在矛盾的必然性及其证明

自然数理论在无限问题上隐含逻辑矛盾,因为自然数理论是集合论的逻辑基础,所以集合论也隐含逻辑矛盾,这一事实是能够证明的,文章给出了三个不同的证明,它们分别与小学数学、中学数学、大学数学接轨。     

河南农村剩余劳动力转移的趋势和对策

农村剩余劳动力的转移,这一传统农业经济向现代工业经济转变时期特有的现象,引起了社会的广泛注意和高度重视.河南农村剩余劳动力数量庞大,形势严峻.结合实际分析河南农村剩余劳动力转移的趋势和对策,对促进河南经济持续快速协调发展意义重大.     

《聊斋志异》生态展现之阐释

《聊斋志异》对于物际生态有着理想化的展现,但现实中我们应拒绝生态完美主义的诱惑。小说中人与自然物奇异的对话无不告诉我们,人与自然的对话理应被界定在良性的范围之内。幻化的笔法,使小说中的自然物得以获得其生态主体性,这对于当今生态文化之建构,无疑具有重大的启迪意义。