习近平关于人民健康重要论述的理论内涵与实践价值

促进全民健康，决胜全面小康。习近平总书记关于人民健康的重要论述，充分彰显了以人民为中心的时代要求，蕴含着以推动全面建成小康社会为战略目标，以维护社会公平正义为价值追求，以社会资源共建共享为方法路径，以中国特色社会主义制度的优越性为条件保证的丰富内涵。在新时代，习近平总书记关于人民健康的重要论述对于加快实施健康中国战略、推动构建中国健康工作体系特别是指导此次新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控展现出重要的实践价值。     

历史城区自行车绿道系统规划与设计的实证研究

为提升历史城区的绿道品质，优化非机动车出行环境，对自行车绿道系统的规划与设计方法进行了实证研究。根据自行车绿道系统的特性，按照空间形态特性将历史城区的自行车绿道系统分为单元、廊道及节点等3类要素，通过自组织映射图模型、最短路算法、旅行推销员算法及自行车路阻函数等，在地理信息系统上建立了基于赋权系数的自行车绿道系统规划方法，并应用所提出的方法对西安市主城区自行车绿道系统进行实证研究。研究结果表明，西安可以构建成包括22条骑行廊道、总长度142.6 km的自行车绿道网络，证明提出的方法能建立适用于历史城区出行特性的自行车绿道系统。     

Human Factors Analysis for Maritime Accidents Based on a Dynamic Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Human factors are widely regarded to be highly contributing factors to maritime accident prevention system failures. The conventional methods for human factor assessment, especially quantitative techniques, such as fault trees and bow-ties, are static and cannot deal with models with uncertainty, which limits their application to human factors risk analysis. To alleviate these drawbacks, in the present study, a new human factor analysis framework called multidimensional analysis model of accident causes (MAMAC) is introduced. MAMAC combines the human factors analysis and classification system and business process management. In addition, intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and Bayesian Network are integrated into MAMAC to form a comprehensive dynamic human factors analysis model characterized by flexibility and uncertainty handling. The proposed model is tested on maritime accident scenarios from a sand carrier accident database in China to investigate the human factors involved, and the top 10 most highly contributing primary events associated with the human factors leading to sand carrier accidents are identified. According to the results of this study, direct human factors, classified as unsafe acts, are not a focus for maritime investigators and scholars. Meanwhile, unsafe preconditions and unsafe supervision are listed as the top two considerations for human factors analysis, especially for supervision failures of shipping companies and ship owners. Moreover, potential safety countermeasures for the most highly contributing human factors are proposed in this article. Finally, an application of the proposed model verifies its advantages in calculating the failure probability of accidents induced by human factors.     

PCA likelihood ratio test approach for attributed social networks monitoring

Abstract

One of the most important factors in building and changing communication mechanisms in social networks is considering features of the members of social networks. Most of the existing methods in network monitoring don’t consider effects of features in network formation mechanisms and others don’t lead to reliable results when the features abound or when there are correlations among them. In this article, we combined two methods principal component analysis (PCA) and likelihood method to monitor the underlying network model when the features of individuals abound and when some of them have high correlations with each other.     

浙江省城市绿色技术创新效率评价及影响因素分析

基于网络DEA模型和Malmquist指数模型，利用浙江省11个地级市的2011-2020年的数据，以降维后的污染指数为非期望产出对绿色技术创新效率进行测度和分析。发现:浙江各市总体上成果转化阶段的效率优于研发阶段，城市间发展差异较大；整体TFP指数均值为1.121，其提升主要源自技术进步；城镇化水平、产业结构优化、对外开放、政府干预和研发强度对绿色技术创新效率有促进作用，但经济发展水平与绿色技术创新效率的U型关系不显著。     

Spectral goodness of fit for network models

We introduce a new statistic, ‘spectral goodness of fit’ (SGOF) to measure how well a network model explains the structure of the pattern of ties in an observed network. SGOF provides a measure of fit analogous to the standard R² in linear regression. Additionally, as it takes advantage of the properties of the spectrum of the graph Laplacian, it is suitable for comparing network models of diverse functional forms, including both fitted statistical models and algorithmic generative models of networks. After introducing, defining, and providing guidance for interpreting SGOF, we illustrate the properties of the statistic with a number of examples and comparisons to existing techniques. We show that such a spectral approach to assessing model fit fills gaps left by earlier methods and can be widely applied.     

A Probabilistic Model of the Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During Floods

Scour (localized erosion by water) is an important risk to bridges, and hence many infrastructure networks, around the world. In Britain, scour has caused the failure of railway bridges crossing rivers in more than 50 flood events. These events have been investigated in detail, providing a data set with which we develop and test a model to quantify scour risk. The risk analysis is formulated in terms of a generic, transferrable infrastructure network risk model. For some bridge failures, the severity of the causative flood was recorded or can be reconstructed. These data are combined with the background failure rate, and records of bridges that have not failed, to construct fragility curves that quantify the failure probability conditional on the severity of a flood event. The fragility curves generated are to some extent sensitive to the way in which these data are incorporated into the statistical analysis. The new fragility analysis is tested using flood events simulated from a spatial joint probability model for extreme river flows for all river gauging sites in Britain. The combined models appear robust in comparison with historical observations of the expected number of bridge failures in a flood event. The analysis is used to estimate the probability of single or multiple bridge failures in Britain's rail network. Combined with a model for passenger journey disruption in the event of bridge failure, we calculate a system‐wide estimate for the risk of scour failures in terms of passenger journey disruptions and associated economic costs.     

再论管理研究中的关系:“关”与“系”的交互视角

在系统回顾现有关系研究文献基础之上,结合关系研究和社会网络理论,区分双边联系(即“关”)和多边网络(即“系”)两大不同视角,重新梳理文献。在此基础上,对未来关系研究如何整合“关”视角和“系”视角提出了系统性建议,尤其是构建“关”与“系”二者整体性与动态性交互的核心机制体系,提出了包括信任转让、信任转化、“佛面”效应、多重结构四大交互机制,通过阐述“关”“系”互动机制,重新解读“关系”。     

A neuroeconomic theory of (dis) honesty

We develop a theory of dishonesty based on neurophysiological evidence that supports the idea of a two-step process in the decision to cheat. Formally, decisions can be processed vía a costless “honest” channel that generates truthful behavior or vía a costly “dishonest” channel that requires attentional resources to trade-off costs and benefits of cheating. In the first step, a decision between these two channels is made based on ex-ante information regarding the expected benefits of cheating. In the second step, decisions are based on the channel that has been selected and, when applicable, the realized benefit of cheating. The model makes novel predictions relative to existing behavioral theories. First, adding external complexity to the decision-making problem (e.g., in the form of multi-tasking) deprives the individual from attentional resources and consequently decreases the propensity to engage in dishonest behavior. Second, higher expectations about the benefits of cheating results in a higher frequency of trial-by-trial cheating for any realized benefit level. Third, multiplicity of equilibria (characterized by different levels of cheating) emerges naturally in the context of illegal markets, in which expected benefits are endogenous.     

“通知—删除”规则在电子商务专利侵权中的适用——兼论《民法典》第1195条

随着电子商务的蓬勃发展，“通知—删除”规则在有效制止电子商务专利侵权中具有重要作用。我国在21世纪初引进“通知—删除”规则，逐步构建了适用于电子商务领域专利侵权的“通知—删除”规则。《民法典》正式施行以来，“通知—删除”规则在适用于电子商务专利侵权中暴露出诸多问题：存在规则滥用隐患，权利人与商家利益失衡，通知与反通知的审核标准难以一致，因错误通知造成商家损失难以恢复，等等。解决好这些问题，需从专利侵权的特殊性出发，贴合《民法典》第1195条的规定，遵循“通知—删除”规则的立法目的进行解释适用；应重视和探索电子商务平台的自治能力，推动“通知—删除”规则在电子商务专利侵权中的解释适用。