Bayes estimators of the average failure rates

In the present paper we have proposed a Bayesian approach for making inferences from accelerated life tests which do not require distributional assumptions     

Estimation of parameters and reliability from generalized life models

Simultaneous estimation of parameters with p (≥ 2) components, where each component has a generalized life distribution, is considered under a sum of squared error loss function. Improved estimators are obtained which dominate the maximum likelihood and the niinimum mean square estimators. Robustness of the improved estimators is shown even when the component distributions are dependent. The result is extended to the estimation of the system reliability when the components are connected in series. Several numerical studies are performed to demonstrate the risk improvement and the Pitman closeness of the new estimators.     

Characterizations of the poisson process using,the variance

Let γ(t) be the residual life at time t of the renewal process {A(t), t > 0}, which has F as the common distribution function of the inter-arrival times. In this article we prove that if Var(γ(t)) is constant, then F will be exponentially or geometrically distributed under the assumption F is continuous or discrete respectively. An application and a related example also are given.     

冷却剂参数对铣槽喷管低周疲劳寿命的影响

采用有限体积流固耦合计算方法、非线性有限元热结构耦合分析方法和局部应变法研究大面积比铣槽喷管三维再生冷却槽道在循环工作条件下的热结构变形与低周疲劳寿命,并对比分析了冷却剂质量流量与入口温度对铣槽喷管疲劳使用寿命的影响。计算结果表明,铣槽喷管热结构响应呈现复杂的三维效应,应变较大位置主要分布在与肋连接的内衬区域,喷管中部的残余应变量最大;冷却槽道低周疲劳寿命分布和热结构响应基本一致,最小寿命位于喷管中部与肋相连的内衬区域燃气侧;随冷却剂质量流量增加,铣槽喷管低周疲劳寿命不断提高;随冷却剂入口温度增加喷管尾部低周疲劳寿命值不断降低,而喷管中前部的低周疲劳寿命值却不断提高,当冷却剂入口温度为280K左右时,本文的铣槽喷管总体使用寿命达到最大。      

BATHTUB-TYPE CURVES IN RELIABILITY AND BEYOND

Finding optimal, or at least good, maintenance and repair policies is crucial in reliability engineering. Likewise, describing life phases of human mortality is important when determining social policy or insurance premiums. In these tasks, one searches for distributions to fit data and then makes inferences about the population(s). In the present paper, we focus on bathtub‐type distributions and provide a view of certain problems, methods and solutions, and a few challenges, that can be encountered in reliability engineering, survival analysis, demography and actuarial science.     

荷兰居民生活质量调查方法研究及对中国的启示

通过对荷兰居民生活质量调查方法的研究，旨在分析总结其值得借鉴之处，并在此基础上针对中国正在探索中的居民生活质量调查，提出构建中国居民生活质量调查体系应拓宽其调查信息来源、实现数据共享、积极提高回应率、培养高素质调查队伍以及定期发布调查报告。     

《汉语新词新语年编2003—2005》词目年代研究——兼论《编年本〈汉语新词语〉系列词典部分词目的著录年代》

《汉语新词新语年编2003-2005》一书面世后,陶炼先生发表了《编年本〈汉语新词语〉系列词典部分词目的著录年代》,全文使用《人民日报》报刊检索作为研究新词词目年代的唯一方法。此种方法作为词目搜索范围过于狭窄。为了比较准确查找新词出现的相关年代,应当扩大搜索范围：除使用《人民日报》外．智能查找新词出现年代的方法还可使用人民网等在线报刊网站．利用谷歌、百度等搜索引擎进行网页查找也是可行的方法。新词词目的年代断定在实践中是非常复杂且易出纰满的。新词词典词目年代的断定不能保证完全准确。     

Semiparametric Additive Accelerated Life Models

In this paper we investigate the asymptotic properties of estimators obtained for the semiparametric additive accelerated life model proposed by Bagdonavicius & Nikulin (1995). This model generalizes the well known additive hazards model of survival analysis and is close to the general transformation model (see Dabrowska & Doksum, 1988). Asymptotic properties of the estimator of the regression parameter and the estimator of the reliability function are given in the case of right censoring for discretized data and a numerical example illustrates these results.     

将生命还给社会:传记法作为一种总体叙事方式

在田野民族志和历史编纂学中，传记法是一种重要的叙事方式。本文从分析林耀华的作品入手，将其置于20世纪20年代以来的社会学和人类学思想脉络中，并在此基础上探讨传记法在中国历史和社会研究中的潜力与可能性。本文将谱系法、个人生命史和社会生命论归纳为“传记法三角”。在（扩展）谱系法和社会结构论的基础上，生命传记法可以呈现一个或多个人的生命历史，作为大历史中的片段。不过，现象学路径有其自身的限度，不能离开对中央政权本身和总体结构的考察。在“时势”和“社会结构”的变迁过程中呈现生命传记，才不会只是个体的故事，而有希望成为一种对中国“总体”社会生活的有力叙事方式。     

新文类与亚文化

新媒体和文学的结合催生出一批迥然有别于传统纸媒文学的新文类作品,而被流行化的亚文化构成了它们的重要话语资源,新文类中最常见的亚文化种类有同性恋亚文化、神秘亚文化和游戏动漫亚文化等,这些亚文化中蕴涵的抵抗和边缘因素在消费时代成为商业文化的卖点,被流行化快餐化之后作为一种＂奇观＂投合了都市青少年群体追求新奇刺激的猎奇心态,因而在新媒体平台上成为新的时尚和潮流。